I’m going on bit of a vacation this week, so no full writeup. However, I didn’t want to leave y’all completely hanging so see above for my picks. I’ll aim to review them on Monday. We do have one bet to review though:
W – NO (-1.5) vs. LAC / SEA (-1) vs. MIN (-110)
This one did not look promising. With Seattle barely pulling out a win, combined with our subpar line, led us to a push on half of this teaser. New Orleans looked to be on the road to handing a rookie QB on a one-win-team a victory on Monday night. Luckily, the curse of the Chargers bore it’s ugly head and they missed a game-winning field goal in regulation. From there, the Saints were able to win the coin-toss and march down field against an exhausted Chargers defense. A great half-win to end Week Five.
Overall record: 29.5-23.5-1
- L – DAL -8 vs. NYG (-110)
This bet looked good until Dak Prescott was forced from the game. Ultimately the Cowboys won, but bad break for this bet. Hoping for a speedy recovery for the franchise-tagged quarterback.
- W – MIA @ SF Over 24.5 First Half (-110)
As a 49er fan this one did not go as intended. I imagined this one going the way of San Francisco early, instead we saw more Fitzmagic off of bad 49er turnovers. The bet secured, but there’s sadness in my heart.
- W – LV +19.5 @ KC / CAR +8 @ ATL (-110)
The Raiders actually won outright, which comes as a surprise even with the line moving from 13.5 when we took this teaser to 11 at close. The Chiefs defense looked tired, likely due to their wonky schedule from the previous week. Derek Carr’s outburst after last week’s loss looks to have worked as he secures only his third win against the Chiefs in his career.
The Panthers pile onto Atlanta’s woes, winning the game outright by seven points. My only regret is not taking a moneyline parlay here which would’ve resulted in much better odds.
- ? – NO (-1.5) vs. LAC / SEA (-1) vs. MIN (-110)
Pending Monday game. We only pushed on half, could still be a half win.
- L – PHI @ PIT Under 49 / CAR @ ATL Over 48.5 / CIN @ BAL Over 45.5 (+170)
The battle of the Keystone State did not result in a low scoring ham-fisted bar fight. Rather, it was a high scoring shootout not representative of the teams’ defenses.
Carolina didn’t need to score much as the Panthers totally stymied the Falcons scoring despite Calvin Ridley being able to generate bunches of yardage. This game also fell short of expectations.
Lastly, the Bungles failed to score at all until the fourth quarter, and the Ravens had a couple key stalls in the red zone. Overall, this bet failed on all legs, and I’d describe this as ‘taking a big bath’ in Accounting terms.
- W – AZ +1 vs. NYJ/PIT -1 vs. PHI (-110)
Arizona played the terrible New York Jets featuring a washed Joe Flacco, and Pittsburgh was able to outgun an injured Eagles offensive roster. I was quite surprised by the Eagles being able to score so much against the Steelers. For now, I’ll chalk this up to Pittsburgh playing down to it’s opposition and not worry about the offense for now.
- L – Jimmy Butler to Record a Triple Double (+245, Half-Unit)
If the Heat do anything, it’ll be through Jimmy Butler was my logic here. He’s been sensational thus far in the series, and win or loss this trend should hold. Unfortunately, the whole Miami team fell a bit flat tonight and Butler fell a few assists and rebounds short of hitting this target.
- W – Anthony Davis to Record a Double Double (-110, Half-Unit)
I personally think the odds should’ve been plus here given Davis’ perpetual lumbering every time his step needs to be slightly adjusted. However, any minutes he does play will be very active (it is the finals). He secured the bet midway through the fourth quarter.
- L – Russell Wilson Longest Pass Over 43.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
Wilson had a final drive completion to DK Metcalf that fell four yards short of closing this bet. The rain didn’t help the cause, and the Vikings really only let Wilson have one half to pass as their defense held stout for much of the game.
- W – Russell Wilson Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Half-Unit)
Wilson hit 35 rushing yards in the first half. There’s something about primetime games that activate the ‘Gotta make something out of nothing’ mentality that gets quarterbacks legs moving. Wilson especially is very adept using his legs to pick up yardage and this was a comfortable hit.
Overall this week we ended at 4-3 and I’ll come back for the Monday Night result. Currently for the season we sit at 29-23.5-1.
I went ahead and sprinkled a bit on Game Five of the NBA Finals on Friday afternoon in a moment of weakness. Unfortunately, the Lakers weren’t able to close out the series tonight, but bets mostly ended in our favor:
- W – Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Successful Three-Point Shots (+160, Half Unit)
AD hit his first two, and wasn’t able to connect again from beyond the arc for the rest of the game. Any additional make could’ve been the difference maker in what was a very close Lakers loss. Dang.
- W – LeBron James Over 2.5 Successful Three-Point Shots (+140, Half Unit)
The King caught fire from range in Game Five of the finals making six three-pointers, often at crucial moments when it looked like the Heat were about to take a significant lead. This bet was comfortably hit well before the end of the game.
- W – Danny Green Over 1.5 Successful Three-Point Shots (+100)
This was the first time since game one where Green recorded more than a lone three-point shot. He was wide open in the closing moments of the game, and bricked the Finals-winning shot on the front of the rim. For a guy who calls himself “Deadshot” he fell flat when his team needed him the most. One made shot, and the cruel vitriol shown towards Green from the Lakers fanbase for the entirety of the Playoffs would’ve been forgiven. Not in this timeline unfortunately.
- L – LeBron James to Record a Triple Double (+250, Half Unit)
LeBron really took the scoring reigns this game. He safely cleared the bar for rebounds, but as always his passes too often resulted in shots off the mark from the likes of Danny Green and a bench unit who only managed to score one basket from range the entire game.
Including this small sample of 1.5-.5 we’re at 25-20.5-1 overall this year.
I’m praying for a Game Six Lakers win on Sunday. To distract from that series, Week Five of the NFL is upon us. To compensate for a COVID-reduced slate we got real teasy with it this week:
- DAL -8 vs. NYG (-110)
Much to my chagrin, this line moved a half point against our favor mere minutes after I placed this bet. I still think the Cowboys will be able to handily beat a Giants team who wasn’t able to handle a backup quarterback leading a heavily damaged 49ers team two weeks ago. I don’t see how the Giants will be able to keep up with this Cowboys offense. To put it in perspective, the most the Giants have scored in a game this season has been 16 points. Conversely, the least the Cowboys have scored this year in a contest has been 17 in week one, averaging 35 points a game since then.
- MIA @ SF Over 24.5 First Half (-110)
Between Jimmy Garoppolo being reunited with his full offensive arsenal, and a Miami team with an inconsistent defense and streaky offense, I think this total will be safely hit. The Dolphins should be able to gain enough yardage and hit one broken play for ten points. While I think the 49ers will put together two creative touchdowns and a field goal in the first half.
- LV +19.5 @ KC / CAR +8 @ ATL (-110)
I don’t think the Raiders are that bad, with an offense that has scored a low of 20 points this season (against a Bill Belichick coached defense no less). The Chiefs are definitely one of the most potent offenses in the league, but getting in on this line early gave me the confidence that the vast spread should allow for heavy backdoor cover potential at the very least.
Carolina is at the very least an average team, with an offense that has shown good chemistry. This is against a Falcons team that isn’t expecting Julio Jones to play, and has a decimated secondary filled with third-stringers playing starting roles. The agile Panthers receivers should have a good day in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
- NO (-1.5) vs. LAC / SEA (-1) vs. MIN (-110)
The Chargers gave Tampa Bay a scare last week before ultimately losing by a touchdown. I think that New Orleans is a more talented team, with a great deal more familiarity with each other than the upstart Chargers. Justin Herbert has shown flashes of brilliance, but ultimately I think the Saints win by ten or more.
Seattle has a knack for allowing their outmatched opponents to stay in games until the very end. This leaky Seahawks defense doesn’t help that trend, but Kirk Cousins in primetime and an even worse Vikings defense has me favoring the birds to simply win outright.
- PHI @ PIT Under 49 / CAR @ ATL Over 48.5 / CIN @ BAL Over 45.5 (+170)
A little beyond what I like to place, with a three-leg teaser, but I feel confident in each of these picks.
The battle of Pennsylvania features two good defenses, an offense with little to no receiving talent, and a Steelers team that often plays down to their opponents. I see this being a low-scoring grind, with a lot of long drives.
Carolina’s game last week against a modest Cardinals team hit over 50 points. This week the Panthers are playing an even more potent offense, with an even worse defense in the Falcons. I see this one being a shootout due to the tendencies of this Atlanta team.
Baltimore boasts an amazing offense that bullies bad teams. The Bungles have managed to create miraculous scores, especially late in the game. I expect the Ravens to score between 35 to 40 points, and hope that Cincinnati can manage a few scores to seal this over.