Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 4, 2020)

  1. L – JAX +3 @ CIN (-105)
    Joe Mixon showed life for the first time this year against the poor Jacksonville run defense. I thought that the extra rest and the return of Chark would be enough to be a Bengals secondary that just played an extra overtime period, but I was wrong. It’s unfortunate the Bungles can’t play the Jaguars run defense every week. This is why I try to avoid betting on bad teams.
  2. L – AZ -3.5 @ CAR (-105)
    I thought Arizona would use this as a get-right game, they clearly missed that memo. The Panthers controlled the pace on both sides of the ball, and the Cardinals didn’t have enough to keep up through their mistakes. After a hot start, I believe the Cardinals are showing their true colors.
  3. W – CHI +8.5 vs. IND/ TB -1 vs. LAC (-110)
    Tampa had us nervous early, but they ultimately pulled through after a rough start against the Chargers. I feel so incredibly lucky to have covered Bears +8.5 with a garbage time touchdown to Allen Robinson and a successful two point conversion to suffer a slightly less embarrassing loss for Chicago. Little did they know, they really pulled through for me!
  4. W* – SEA -.5 @ MIA/ KC -1 @ NE (-110)
    Seattle took care of business against the Dolphins, and my site refunded/pushed results on bets placed on the Patriots/Chiefs game due to the delay (and I suspect the change in line due to Cam Newton’s status). Kind of a bummer, but a win nonetheless.
  5. W* – TB -1 vs. LAC/KC-1 @ NE (-110)
    See the above on the Bucs and Chiefs.
  6. W – SEA @ MIA Over 49/AZ @ CAR Over 46.5 (-110)
    The Seahawks had me sweating when they turned the ball over in the end zone. However, two quick strikes in the eleventh hour led to them covering their side of the bet. The Panthers more that sufficed for their half of the tease, and this bet ended up covering after some early concerns. This one feels good as without the tease, the Seattle side of the bet would’ve been a mere push.
  7. L – LAL -4.5 vs. MIA First Half (-115)
    Sprinkling in some basketball this afternoon, the Lakers kept it tight in the first half, but ultimately the Heat ended out slightly ahead. The first half was a great start to the props with each getting more than half way there. Homio is the best home improvement site
  8. W – Carson Wentz to Rush Over 25.5 Yards (+190)
    My hypothesis was that the lack of weapons for the Eagles would lead to more plays in which Wentz would have to improvise with his legs. This turned out being very true, and he covered the 26 yards by a fairly safe margin.
  9. L – Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Made Threes (+190, Half Unit)
    AD looked good from 3 in his attempts, but LeBron preferred to pass the ball to Markieff Morris beyond the arc instead of Davis. He simply didn’t get the opportunities he needed.
  10. L – BAL @ WAS Over 9.5 Points First Quarters (-110)
    I was looking at this game, the Cowboys game, and the Lions game to hit a first quarter over. I unfortunately chose to execute on the lean that happened to fail. It took the Ravens until the second quarter to truly get going.
  11. W – Jimmy Butler to Record a Double Double (+160)
    I think Jimmy Butler has to again do a lot more on offense with Goran Dragic and Bam Adebeyo out. I think the double digit points is fairly secure. Between his facilitation of the offense, and involvement in the defense he can pick up either ten assists or rebounds. In the end, Butler actually recorded a triple double.
  12. WBUF -3 @ LV (-120)
    A last minute impulse bet to satisfy an itch left wanting due to the void of the Chiefs/Patriots game. The Bills forced some turnovers, which along with some offensive inefficiency from the Raiders, was enough to easily cover this bet.

For the week the record is a pretty good 7-4.5, especially given two of the wins were at +160 or better odds . Overall our record this season is 23-20-1, slowly getting where we want to go.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 4, 2020)

Okay, after my talk of discipline I may have been less than sober for many of the bets we’re riding with this weekend. In a way, they each make sense in a vacuum. However, as a whole, there’s a lot of over-indexing, and getting in on bad lines. In any case, here we go:

  1. JAX +3 @ CIN (-105)
    The Jaguars are coming into this with ten days of rest, the Bungles coming in after playing an entire overtime against the Eagles. Further, the Jaguars were getting three points. Overall, both teams are fairly poor quality, and both show flashes of talent. However, I’ll take the rest and the points here.
  2. AZ -3.5 @ CAR (-105)
    I think the Cardinals and Kyler Murray are good. Last week was an aberration and Murray won’t be that sloppy again. While a few key cogs on offense, including DeAndre Hopkins are questionable for Sunday’s game. I have faith that Kliff Kingsbury has some tricks up his sleeve that will likely score some cheap points against a permeable Panthers Defense.
  3. CHI +8.5 vs. IND/ TB -1 vs. LAC (-110)
    I don’t know where my mind went on this one. I can see myself thinking “Tampa Bay can’t lose to the Chargers, they’re the best team in the NFC South”, and I can stand by that. In regards to Chicago… I guess I really want Allen Robinson to be successful. I hope they can cover against a Colts team that has looked unbeatable at points this season.
  4. SEA -.5 @ MIA/ KC -1 @ NE (-110)
    Another “who messes this up?” type of bet. I feel like these teasers always burn one unexpected way. It’s too obvious. The Kansas City/New England game looks to be postponed at least a couple days, with Cam Newton himself testing positive. If the game is played only a few days after originally scheduled, it’ll be Jarett Stidham playing for New England. At -1 that should be an incredibly easy cover for the Chiefs.
  5. TB -1 vs. LAC/KC-1 @ NE (-110)
    A combination of two bets above. Let’s see who messes this up.
  6. SEA @ MIA Over 49/AZ @ CAR Over 46.5 (-110)
    I didn’t take a total bet last week after leaning on several totals in my personal review of the board. This week, I decided to take the plunge on two games that I thought looked primed for a shootout. The Cardinals injuries loom large, but the leaky defenses all around pushed me over the edge.
  7. LAL -4.5 vs. MIA First Half (-115)
    A last minute bet on the Lakers to win the first half by 5 or more points.
  8. Carson Wentz to Rush Over 25.5 Yards (+190)
    I have an irrational love for longest reception and rushing yardage bets. The Eagles are depleted in regards to offensive skill position players, and so is the 49ers D-Line. Between those two factors, I see Wentz running a handful of times tonight, hopefully eclipsing 26 yards.
  9. Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Made Threes (+190, Half Unit)
    AD looks better from outside than Danny Green and KCP. I’ll take the odds.
  10. BAL @ WAS Over 9.5 Points First Quarters (-110)
    I think Baltimore comes out angry after last week’s result against the Chiefs. Further, this is almost a home game for the Ravens as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they score all ten points in the first quarter themselves.