Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 3, 2020)

  1. W – LAL -2 vs. DEN 1Q (-110)
    Started the weekend slate a little early with a unit on the Lakers game. As a Lakers fan I try to keep business and personal matters separate, but I had a thought that the Lakers would come out fast, and keep things close to start the game. I had a lean for the half as well, but didn’t end up pulling the trigger on that one unfortunately. Excited to see my team in the Finals where I’ll aim to steer clear of bets and simply enjoy as a fan.
  2. WTB -6 @ DEN (-115)
    Tampa won comfortably as the offense had enough success, along with great field position courtesy of the Bucs’ defense taking advantage of two backup quarterbacks in Denver. There was never much doubt that Tampa would cover after twenty minutes or so after the start of the game.
  3. WCAR+6.5 @ LAC (-110)
    The Panthers were in the lead the entire game, but it was mostly off the leg of Kicker Joey Slye who kicked five successful field goals to fuel Carolina’s 21 to 16 win. Panthers unders/covers seem more intriguing moving forward as the offense appears competent. The defense is still leaky despite holding firm this week against the rookie quarterback.
  4. LTEN -2.5 @ MIN (-110)
    The early red zone opportunities that were converted into mere field goals bode poorly for this bet, as the Titans were allowing the Vikings to stay very much in the game. After missing a couple touchdown opportunities the Vikings firmly took control of the game until choking late. The Titans missed a two point conversion that would’ve gotten us to the cover. A bad beat based on a line that seemed too good to be true. Luckily, we had some insurance on this one.
  5. WLAR +8 @ BUF / MIN +8.5 vs. TEN (-110)
    The Rams had us sweating it out early, but they surprisingly pulled through late despite losing to the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills late in the fourth. The Vikings avoided going 0-3 in an incredibly ugly fashion, telegraphing their impending playoff miss. A teaser that was deflated early on with the Rams, but ended up comfortably covering.
  6. LAZ +.5 vs. DET/ TB +1 @ DEN (-110)
    Trying to get in on the Cardinals gravy train got me. The Lions remember last year’s tie, and had the desperation of a team avoiding a winless fate (like their division-rivals the Vikings). Unfortunately, the Cardinals offense made too many mistakes, and wasted a safe Tampa Bay cover. Goes to show, going against the public, and trusting your initial instincts despite line movements is advice that I should’ve followed here.
  7. WSEA @ DAL First Half Over 27.5 (-110)
    When D.K. Metcalf got a would-be touchdown reception punched out the back of the end zone for a touchback, I thought this bet was lost. However, the secondaries of these teams are both leaky enough that other big plays ensued after this initial miss. An easy cover about half way through the second quarter.
  8. WCIN +5.5 @ PHI (-110)
    A tie! The Eagles actually couldn’t do it, and Joe Burrow covers again! The Eagles really did sign a deal with the devil to win that Super Bowl as the team has underperformed due to a plague of injuries ever since winning (even during that run). Joe Burrow does enough, and neither team wanted to win. I would’ve vastly preferred a close Eagles win in regulation as a touchdown by the Eagles would put us out of the money, but offensive ineptitude wins!
  9. W – Aaron Rodgers Longest Pass Over 39.5 Yards (+100)
    I don’t know why I couldn’t leave good enough alone. A winning day without some needless props, but here we are. I see these kinds of props and it’s really just cheering for excitement, which is as undisciplined of approach you can have, put in the heat of Sunday I couldn’t help myself. Rodgers found Allen Lazard out from a leaky Saints secondary and hit him for 48 yards early in the second quarter to seal this bet.
  10. L – Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (+250 / Quarter Unit)
    Rushing for 13 yards in the first half seemed encouraging enough, but the Saints rush defense played much better than their secondary. Rodgers was able to make several long passes, but didn’t need to scramble to secure a Packers win.
  11. L Aaron Rodgers Over 23.5 Completions (+100)
    The recipe for the Packers offensive success against the Saints was long passes, not the dink/dunk kind we needed to cover this bet. While it was close, Aaron Jones was a bit too successful on the ground to close this one.

On the day we ended 6-4.25. Overall, on the season we are 16-15.5-1. A good comeback effort from last week for sure, but a couple bad beats/unnecessary prop bets to end the day. Onto Week Four.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 3, 2020)

If all goes to plan, there shouldn’t be too much more than posted above in terms of bets for this week. I placed a couple prop bets on the Thursday Night game, so I’ll review those briefly first:

  1. W – Gardner Minshew to complete over 23.5 passes (+100)
    They were ugly passes, and most came once the game was securely out of reach via dump-offs to James Robinson/Chris Thompson. However, ugly or not, we got there.
  2. Push – Gardner Minshew, James Robinson, and DJ Chark Under 445.5 Yards (-115)
    Refunded as Chark was out for the game. No bet.
  3. L – Gardner Minshew Longest Pass Completion to be Over 40.5 Yards (+100)
    The Dolphins were incredibly cognizant of not getting beat over the top. Further, Chark’s ability to stretch the field was sorely missed in this game as it didn’t appear that any receivers were consistently running down field, even when the Jaguars desperately needed to catch up.

Thursday night result: 1-1-1 and given the odds, we broke even on Thursday night. Total standings for the year rest at 10-11.25-1. Moving onto the real Week 3 slate:

  1. TB -6 @ DEN (-115)
    I strongly believe that last week’s Denver cover against Pittsburgh was largely due to the element of surprise and the classic bump that a backup QB receives the first time they enter the game unexpectedly. Tampa Bay has a strong Defense (that in theory will travel well) and I think the Bucs win by over a touchdown. Unfortunately, I took this line early in the week thinking it’d increase, but at the time of writing the line is at -5. If you can grab it at that, there’s even more value here.
  2. CAR+6.5 @ LAC (-110)
    Similar to the above, the Chargers caught the Chiefs by surprise last week by starting Justin Herbert and receiving a similar ‘backup QB bump’. The Panthers have had all week to prepare for the Chargers, and should be ready. Further, the Panthers offense has looked fairly strong this season thus far, with Teddy Bridgewater looking to have good chemistry with his receivers. I’ll take the Panthers getting the points on the road in a close win/loss against this Chargers team in flux.
  3. TEN -2.5 @ MIN (-110)
    The Titans offense has looked good in their last two games, but their defense hasn’t been as stout as last year during the Titan’s AFC Championship game run. Allowing a Jaguars team to score 30 points at home isn’t ideal, but the Vikings have looked absolutely woeful this year. It doesn’t help that they continue to lose defensive playmakers week after week after already being heavily impacted by opt-outs prior to the season starting. The only fear I have on this one is Minnesota coming out like a desperate injured animal as they play to avoid a 0-3 start to the season. I have faith in the Titans, and am hoping that Mike Vrabel has made the defensive adjustments needed to get this defense back to form.
  4. LAR +8 @ BUF / MIN +8.5 vs. TEN (-110)
    A couple teasers to end my betting slate for the week. A wise man once told me to only tease over 7 points, and both these lines were compatible. I think we can hit the sweet spot in the Vikings game, with Tennessee eking out a close win, but the Vikings covering this teased-out spread. The Rams and Bills are both 2-0, but the Bills have only played the Dolphins and Jets thus far (not the fiercest competition I’d say). I think the Rams should be able to keep this one close/win on the road for Robert Woods as he returns to the place where his NFL career started.
  5. AZ +.5 vs. WAS / TB +1 @ DEN (-110)
    I’ve been missing out on the Cardinals gravy train thus far this year, and I think it’s about time for me to wade my way in. The Cardinals have shown a great amount of offensive prowess, between the strong connection of Kyler Murray/DeAndre Hopkins, to the great rushing ability of Murray, the offense has been firing on all cylinders. I don’t see how Washington keeps up in this game, and believe Arizona should be able to win to start their season 3-0. I wanted to take advantage of the Tampa Bay line lowering and thought the game would be a great teaser mate along with Arizona/insurance in case the Bucs play down to an injury riddled Broncos team.

Hopefully no more irrational chasing this week! Get your bets in, and let’s make some money!