Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 12, 2020)

  1. L – AZ @ NE Over 49.5 Points (-110)
    This didn’t look good in the first half with Scam Newton and his 13.0 QB rating. However, the Pats managed some offense in the second half. The defense continued to contain the Cardinals, and this was a very apparent loss from the third quarter onward.
  2. L – AZ -1 @ NE (-110)
    This line moved down from -2.5 when I pounced. Unfortunately, the sharp action was right taking the Pats here. The Pats made this an ugly game, stifling the typically fast Cardinals offense. This was the game script they needed to win, and they executed their plan to perfection.
  3. L – AZ -.5 @ NE Second Half (-110)
    Instead of trusting my eyes, seeing the Cardinals being stopped by the Pats, I fooled myself into thinking the Cardinals offense would turn in on in the second half. That’s tough with a young quarterback traveling east against a well-coached New England team. The wise money would’ve been to hedge on New England. A silly double-down loss.
  4. W – CAR +3.5 @ MIN (-110)
    Looked bleak in the first half for the Teddy-Two-Glove revenge game. Then two fumble recoveries for touchdowns and Dalvin Cook going down significantly changed the geometry of this game. The Vikings ultimately won the game through a last minute TD and a missed Panthers field goal. A rough day for Joey Slye, missing the game winning field goal and having a kick blocked earlier in the game as well.
  5. L – LV -3 @ ATL (-115)
    Similar to the Falcons win over the 49ers last year, they won this game in shocking fashion against a surging Las Vegas team. The Falcons shooting themselves in the foot, but getting a quality win over a Raiders team in the thick of the playoff race.
  6. L- LV @ ATL Over 53.5 Points (-110)
    This one is rough. A hot Vegas offense only scoring six points against a below average Falcons defense. They had chances, even one touchdown somewhere in the game would’ve closed this bet. Instead, the Falcons steal a pointless game and cost us a a bet.
  7. WNYG -.5 @ CIN / BUF -.5 vs. LAC (-104)
    The New York State teaser hits, with both teams giving their opponent a multitude of chances to comeback. In a hilarious series of events, there were several turnovers in near-consecutive plays between the Chargers and Bills. However, the better team ultimately closed the game due to more poor play calling and clock management from Anthony Lynn. The Giants finally unlocked Evan Engram (although he did fumble), and managed to eke out a win despite Daniel Jones exiting the game early. A nice win after the bevy of losses from the Patriots game.
  8. WTEN @ IND Over 46.5 Points / NO -.5 @ DEN (-110)
    The Colts and Titans just about blew by their total in the first half. The Colts scored a couple quick strikes, but all the while allowed Derrick Henry and the Titans offense to steamroll over them. In the second half, the Tennessee defense understandably laid back a bit, leading to the Colts adding some garbage time points. This divisional matchup ended at an astounding 71 point total.

    The Saints/Broncos game started in startlingly anemic fashion, however by the third quarter the Saints firmly held control of the game. Turns out, it’s incredibly difficult to win a NFL game without a quarterback. Shoutout to contemplative morning walks that led to placing this teaser before the Saints line exploded.
  9. L – CLE -1 @ JAX / LAR -.5 vs. SF (-110)
    Cleveland really made this one close. Baker Mayfield made this game as exciting as possible. To the Jaguars, bravo, the graceful tank for Trevor season continues. A wildly entertaining game that still ends in the best result for the cursed Jaguars franchise.

    Divisional wonkiness abound in this game. The 49ers controlled the first half, but then the Rams scored 17 unanswered points. Ultimately, a sloppy late quarter drive from the Rams cost them the game. The 49ers sweep the season series against the Rams :’D. As a San Francisco fan I’m pleased, but a lose taken on this bet. The Rams are truly a wild
  10. W CLE 0 @ JAX / GB -2.5 vs. CHI (-110)
    See above on Cleveland, for a bit, I was actually thinking I would need the tie to help push this bet. However, the Browns held out just long enough.

    Green Bay won comfortably due in large part to the poor performance of Mitch Turbisky. The Bears are truly a quarterback away from truly contending. Until then, their defense will watch helplessly as their quarterback sinks any hopes the team had to make a playoff run.
  11. W – MIA -1 @ NYJ / GB -2.5 vs. CHI (-110)
    Miami had some early turnovers, but they went mostly unpunished. Key stops on fourth down kept this game in the control of the fish. The Jets hardly put up a fight (unlike the graceful tank exemplified by the Jaguars). An easy cover for the first leg of this bet.

    The Packers held up their end, beating an imbalanced team with a poor quarterback handily.
  12. ? – MIA -.5 @ NYJ / SEA +.5 @ PHI (-110)
    See above for conversation on the largely boring and uncompetitive Dolphins game. Slight line variation due to when the bets were placed. This one is pending the result of the Monday Night game.

On the day we are 5-6. A silly halftime bet is the regret of the week. That’s good for 68-59.5-2 on the season and we’re pending one more for this week. We’ve been incredibly sloppy the last few weeks, doing no better than going even. Here’s hoping to turning things around in Week 13.