- IND -3 @ HOU (-105)
- CLE +6 @ TEN (-110)
- SEA vs. NYG under 47.5 (-110)
- LAR -3 @ AZ (-110)
- LV@ NYJ -1.5 / MIN-.5 @ JAX (-120)
- LV @ NYJ -1 / GB -2.5 vs. PHI (-120)
- TEN 0 vs. CLE / SEA -4 vs. NYG (-110)
- GB -2.5 vs. PHI / BUF +7 @ SF (-110)
- L – AZ @ NE Over 49.5 Points (-110)
This didn’t look good in the first half with Scam Newton and his 13.0 QB rating. However, the Pats managed some offense in the second half. The defense continued to contain the Cardinals, and this was a very apparent loss from the third quarter onward.
- L – AZ -1 @ NE (-110)
This line moved down from -2.5 when I pounced. Unfortunately, the sharp action was right taking the Pats here. The Pats made this an ugly game, stifling the typically fast Cardinals offense. This was the game script they needed to win, and they executed their plan to perfection.
- L – AZ -.5 @ NE Second Half (-110)
Instead of trusting my eyes, seeing the Cardinals being stopped by the Pats, I fooled myself into thinking the Cardinals offense would turn in on in the second half. That’s tough with a young quarterback traveling east against a well-coached New England team. The wise money would’ve been to hedge on New England. A silly double-down loss.
- W – CAR +3.5 @ MIN (-110)
Looked bleak in the first half for the Teddy-Two-Glove revenge game. Then two fumble recoveries for touchdowns and Dalvin Cook going down significantly changed the geometry of this game. The Vikings ultimately won the game through a last minute TD and a missed Panthers field goal. A rough day for Joey Slye, missing the game winning field goal and having a kick blocked earlier in the game as well.
- L – LV -3 @ ATL (-115)
Similar to the Falcons win over the 49ers last year, they won this game in shocking fashion against a surging Las Vegas team. The Falcons shooting themselves in the foot, but getting a quality win over a Raiders team in the thick of the playoff race.
- L- LV @ ATL Over 53.5 Points (-110)
This one is rough. A hot Vegas offense only scoring six points against a below average Falcons defense. They had chances, even one touchdown somewhere in the game would’ve closed this bet. Instead, the Falcons steal a pointless game and cost us a a bet.
- W – NYG -.5 @ CIN / BUF -.5 vs. LAC (-104)
The New York State teaser hits, with both teams giving their opponent a multitude of chances to comeback. In a hilarious series of events, there were several turnovers in near-consecutive plays between the Chargers and Bills. However, the better team ultimately closed the game due to more poor play calling and clock management from Anthony Lynn. The Giants finally unlocked Evan Engram (although he did fumble), and managed to eke out a win despite Daniel Jones exiting the game early. A nice win after the bevy of losses from the Patriots game.
- W – TEN @ IND Over 46.5 Points / NO -.5 @ DEN (-110)
The Colts and Titans just about blew by their total in the first half. The Colts scored a couple quick strikes, but all the while allowed Derrick Henry and the Titans offense to steamroll over them. In the second half, the Tennessee defense understandably laid back a bit, leading to the Colts adding some garbage time points. This divisional matchup ended at an astounding 71 point total.
The Saints/Broncos game started in startlingly anemic fashion, however by the third quarter the Saints firmly held control of the game. Turns out, it’s incredibly difficult to win a NFL game without a quarterback. Shoutout to contemplative morning walks that led to placing this teaser before the Saints line exploded.
- L – CLE -1 @ JAX / LAR -.5 vs. SF (-110)
Cleveland really made this one close. Baker Mayfield made this game as exciting as possible. To the Jaguars, bravo, the graceful tank for Trevor season continues. A wildly entertaining game that still ends in the best result for the cursed Jaguars franchise.
Divisional wonkiness abound in this game. The 49ers controlled the first half, but then the Rams scored 17 unanswered points. Ultimately, a sloppy late quarter drive from the Rams cost them the game. The 49ers sweep the season series against the Rams :’D. As a San Francisco fan I’m pleased, but a lose taken on this bet. The Rams are truly a wild
- W – CLE 0 @ JAX / GB -2.5 vs. CHI (-110)
See above on Cleveland, for a bit, I was actually thinking I would need the tie to help push this bet. However, the Browns held out just long enough.
Green Bay won comfortably due in large part to the poor performance of Mitch Turbisky. The Bears are truly a quarterback away from truly contending. Until then, their defense will watch helplessly as their quarterback sinks any hopes the team had to make a playoff run.
- W – MIA -1 @ NYJ / GB -2.5 vs. CHI (-110)
Miami had some early turnovers, but they went mostly unpunished. Key stops on fourth down kept this game in the control of the fish. The Jets hardly put up a fight (unlike the graceful tank exemplified by the Jaguars). An easy cover for the first leg of this bet.
The Packers held up their end, beating an imbalanced team with a poor quarterback handily.
- ? – MIA -.5 @ NYJ / SEA +.5 @ PHI (-110)
See above for conversation on the largely boring and uncompetitive Dolphins game. Slight line variation due to when the bets were placed. This one is pending the result of the Monday Night game.
On the day we are 5-6. A silly halftime bet is the regret of the week. That’s good for 68-59.5-2 on the season and we’re pending one more for this week. We’ve been incredibly sloppy the last few weeks, doing no better than going even. Here’s hoping to turning things around in Week 13.
- W – HOU -3 @ DET (-110)
I had absolutely zero faith in the Lions in this game. Between a pitiful defense with key injuries, Matt Patricia somehow being a worse coach than Romeo Crennel, and Kenny Galloday’s continued absence, this became an easy call. The Lions somehow always manage to mess things up, and Thanksgiving was no different. An easy win for the Texans.
Ironically, this win pushes Houston down the draft board, which likely hurts the team long term. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- L – Deshaun Watson Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-120, Half-Unit)
I swear Watson had over 34 rushing yards at some point in this game. Not sure if I just misread my phone in the second half (yes, I left once this game became too painful to watch), but this one felt like a bad beat. Please let me know if you know how this bet was blown (or if Watson just never rushed over 33.5 yards to begin with and I was seeing mirages).
- L – Terry McLaurin to Score a TD (+125, Half-Unit)
Antonio Gibson feasted on the Cowboys woeful defense. This meant that McLaurin didn’t really need to be featured to win this game. In fact, there was only one receiving touchdown (to the tight end in classic Alex Smith fashion). While McLaurin was Washington’s receiving leader, he wasn’t needed much, nor did he score to close this bet. Congratulations to the NFC East leading Washington Football Team who improved to four wins on Thanksgiving.
With the Thanksgiving slate complete due to a COVID infested Baltimore team, our current record stands at 63-53.5-2
Onto my wagers for a surprisingly good looking remaining slate:
- AZ @ NE Over 49.5 Points (-110)
- CAR +3.5 @ MIN (-110)
- LV -3 @ ATL (-115)
- LV @ ATL Over 53.5 Points (-110)
- NYG -.5 @ CIN / BUF -.5 vs. LAC (-110)
- CLE -1 @ JAX / LAR -.5 vs. SF (-110)
- CLE 0 @ JAX / GB -2.5 vs. CHI (-110)
- GB -2.5 vs. CHI / MIA -1 @ NYJ (-110)
- MIA -.5 @ NYJ / SEA +.5 @ PHI (-110)
- NO -.5 @ DEN / TEN @ IND Over 46.5 Points (-110)
To kick things off, some Thursday night results:
- W – SEA-3 vs. AZ (-110)
- L – Russell Wilson to rush for Over 50.5 Yards (+275, Half-Unit)
- W – Russell Wilson to rush for Over 31.5 Yards (-115, Half-Unit)
Overall, the game went about as predictably as a divisional Thursday night game would go. Given this game involved the Seahawks, of course it took a fourth quarter safety to hit the cover.
The Cardinals were definitely cognizant of Wilson scrambles as it felt like they either had a spy or hyper aware linebackers for the majority of the night. I felt good about the number of attempts the Seattle signal caller received, but he wasn’t able to break through on a couple of the rushes for larger gains required to hit the 51 yards. Luckily, he safely hit 32 yards rushing which more than paid for both bets.
This takes our season record to 58-47.5-2, onto the main slate:
- L – NE -2 @ HOU (-110)
Kicking Sunday off with a few straight spreads. For the most part, we got the better of the lines by betting early. However, there was a moment on Sunday where this game was Pats -1/-1.5. Unfortunately, the Pats defense let up too many chunk plays. The offense couldn’t keep up.
- L – ATL +5 @ NO (-110)
Atlanta started out promising, but the defense fell for every Taysom Hill gimmick. Emmanuel Sanders bailed his quarterback out several time, truly paying for himself in one game.
- W – CLE -3 vs. PHI (+100)
A messy gross game. Cleveland has the edge in these as they’re used to them by now. Having two of the top fiver rushers in the league (in my opinion) really helps.
- W – GB @ IND Over 52 (-110)
A shootout, as predicted! What I didn’t was predict was this ineptitude from the Green Bay offense in the second half.
- L – MIA @ DEN Over 46 (-110)
There was a massive glimmer of hope when Fitzmagic orchestrated a drive into the red zone. However, the clock struck midnight and he threw a pick in his hot and cold fashion. I was between this game and the Chargers game for a high scoring shootout, and I feel for the Denver trap again. Never again.
- W – LAC -3 @ NYJ / PIT-4 @ JAX (-110)
This was the “who messes this up?” / “too bad to win?” teaser. This week, all went to plan, including the Steelers playing down to their opponents.
- L – PIT -.5 @ JAX / MIA -.5 @ DEN (-125)
Miami failed to cover.
- W – GB +7.5 @ IND / KC -1.5 @ LV (-110)
The Chiefs made it quite exciting, actually trailing for much of the second half with a stagnating offense. When it counted, they marched down the field in the final two minutes and hit on a crucial turnover. A magnificent and exciting cover!
- L – Patrick Mahomes Longest Pass Over 40.5 (+100)
There were only a few attempts over 20 yards tonight for Mahomes, and unfortunately none of them hit. It was death by a million cuts and the run game tonight.
On the week we are an undesirable 4-5 (add) for 62-52.5-2 on the year.