Sports Bet Review (NFL Wild Card Round, 2019)

1) BUF @ HOU Under 44 (-110)I felt a lot better about this bet after it was announced that Will Fuller would sit. This never felt in doubt throughout the game, and once the game went to overtime at 19-19, this bet was secured. It looks like Will Fuller will be back next week, so Texans/Chiefs could be a nice over.

2) BUF @ HOU Over 38.5, NE +1 vs. TEN (-110)The Bills game hit the sweet spot and both the over and under in this case hit for me. Unfortunately, the Patriots couldn’t pull out the win, and this could signal the end of the Patriots dynasty as well. A late chance to win resulted in a pick-six for the Titans and the game was over. It was a pleasure riding the Patriots through laying double digit points early in the season, and I hope that Brady comes back for another year. Hopefully the Pats can get a competent running back. That being said, I’ve never seen the NFL community so united in celebration for a result before this Pats loss.

Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry may have played themselves into sizable contracts, and will be a hot pick going into next year.

3) MIN @ NO Over 49.5 (-110)The game started off slow with Brees getting pressured from the start. This game became very defense oriented, with both offenses struggling to maintain drives. The Vikings were able to get enough chunk plays with their run game and Adam Thielen made up for his early fumble with several clutch conversions throughout the game. The early FGs (both made and missed) were bad omens for this bet, and it ultimately lost. Lesson here is to not underestimate defenses with rest. The Saints will likely be lamenting the officiating and calls once again after this loss.

4) Drew Brees Over 2.5 TDs (+125)This (and the following bet) were made with the game-script of a shootout in mind. When that didn’t come to fruition, and whatever TDs the Saints did score come via rushing killed the hopes of this bet from early on.

5) Drew Brees Over 350.5 Passing Yards (+250)The Vikings secondary seemed a bit suspect coming into this game, and the passing attack was efficient at home for the Saints as of late. Unfortunately, the Saints went with a more run-centric attack, resulting in a different game-script than expected, and the longest pass play of the game was thrown by Taysom Hill rather than Brees, sinking this one. It feels to me like The Saints played the Vikings game for some reason, rather than allowing Brees to air it out.

6) SEA -1.5 @ PHI (-115)It wasn’t too pretty, but the Seahawks were able to produce just enough to beat an Eagles team and their backup QB. This was a great win that also hit the 2 bets below, but I’d be pretty worried if I was a Seahawks fan. The offense was able to produce just 17 points against a very depleted secondary, but showed flashes of what could make their offense dynamic with Wilson runs and deep shots (which have always been Seattle’s trump card in the Carroll era). The upcoming Packers/Seahawks matchup is going to be a very hard one to call given both teams’ lack of consistentency.

7) Russell Wilson Longest Pass Completion Over 40.5 Yards (+100)Wilson was able to connect with DK Metcalf for a 53 yard touchdown completion. This was fortunate as the next longest pass was a 38 yard pass to Moore earlier in the game. I really like this bet for the Seahawks as it plays very well to their offense. I’ll take some Wilson wizardry at least once in each game, and this occurrence is fairly agnostic of game script as well. This may be a bet to take again next week.

8) Russell Wilson Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-120)The game kicked off with a 22 yard Wilson rush, which only gave some concern if there was no other rushing but some kneels to close out the game. In the end, there was several other rush attempts for Wilson, and this trend may continue given the poor production from Homer and Lynch. Some of this is due to Fletcher Cox on the Eagles, but at the same time, those aren’t very inspiring names in terms of RBs in 2019. My only regret was not taking (in addition or in lieu of this bet) Wilson over 30.5 rushing yards at +170. I’m interested to see how this line will be adjusted in next weeks props.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Wild Card Round, 2019)

1) BUF @ HOU Over 38.5, NE +1 vs. TEN (-110)Come playoffs, it really feels like we know all of these teams. We’re past matchups against the Raiders and Colts, or bad teams playing bad teams.

In the first game of the slate, we know that Will Fuller is the spark that makes the Texans offense successful (and he’s on track to play as of this writing). We also know the Texans have played much better at home. Hopefully, the return of JJ Watt is overstated, and it’s more of a diversion than anything else, meaning a susceptible Texans Defense. If this hold true, Josh Allen should be able to break through on enough plays to cover this over. I’m thinking this has a similar feeling to the Bills’ Week 16 matchup against the Pats, except with a more dangerous offense.

The Patriots haven’t played on Wild Card Weekend in a while. However, I don’t see the Titans ultimately coming out with the win. While the Titans are surging, I just can’t count the Patriots out at home. The Pats are probably elbow deep in “nobody believes in us” fever at this point. Aside from last week, I haven’t looked silly betting on the Pats in a long while.

2) MIN @ NO Over 49.5 (-110)The NFL did the Vikings a huge favor by scheduling this game in the Sunday afternoon slot (AKA the ‘Kirk Cousins Zone’). The Saints have played at a blazing pace on offense recently, and the Vikings should have a healthy Dalvin Cook/Adam Thielen. For whatever reason, these two teams seem to play each other in shootouts a lot, and I think the Vikings will need to score into the 30’s if they want a shot at moving on. I’d be surprised if this game didn’t hit 40 by the half.

3) SEA -1.5 @ PHI (-115)In an injury ridden matchup, I can’t see the Eagles secondary holding back Wilson and the Seahawks receivers. The Seahawks have been playing better on the road, and while their defense has been fairly porous, the Eagles are depleted on the offensive side of the ball as well. Unfortunately, I don’t see a path to victory for the Eagles in this matchup, part of me is already bracing for the Eagles fans booing at halftime.

4) BUF @ HOU Under 44.0 (-110)Given Will Fuller is slated to play in this game the point total rose a bit. While this is contrary to my first bet, there is a 6 point sweet spot where both of these bets will hit. I don’t think a 24-21 game is unreasonable, and will hope for that result come Saturday night.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 17, 2019)

1) MIA +22.5 @ NE, KC -3 vs. LAC (-110)

The Pats offense has looked terrible in recent weeks, even though the Dolphins have a putrid patchwork defense, I didn’t think the Pats could stage a win of 22 or more with Fitzpatrick playing in this game. After pacing this bet the spread increased further, and I really wasn’t sure what bettors were thinking. What I didn’t expect was a straight-up Dolphins victory over the Pats. Fitzpatrick and Parker (who I think has outperformed all other WRs against Gilmore this year) led the Dolphins to a strong offensive showing against the the vaunted Patriots Defense. The Pats will be playing in Wild Card weekend for the first time in a long while

The Chiefs knew they had a shot (no matter how seemingly slim) to get a bye in the playoffs. I figured that the Chiefs starters would play for the entierty of the game, and the Pats cooperated by not going up big in the first half of their game (giving the Chiefs the motivation they needed) This game had all the makings of a 2019 Chargers game –

  • Display of early flashes of elite talent
  • Inevitably finding/digging themselves into a hole
  • Chargers mount a doomed comeback

In the end, the Chiefs came back safely, and in doing so secured a bye in the playoffs. This defense, that was gashed at times by Phillip Rivers, doesn’t seem like it can make it far in the playoffs, but if they can get healthier with the bye it could be enough for a long postseason run.

2) GB SU @ DET, ATL @ TB Over 48 (+120)A win that easily took a couple years off of my life, coming down to the wire in both cases. It really didn’t have to be this way, Detroit with a backup quarterback, and a hobbled Tampa offense against a recently strong Atlanta defense seemed like the perfect storm.

Green Bay started off very slow on offense, featuring several overthrows and miscommunication on the part of Rodgers and his receivers. Coming alive in the second half, Rodgers began to connect with his receivers. Despite one missed field goal, Mason Crosby made the kick when it mattered, delivering on a 33 yard field goal as time expired.

The first half went to planned for Tampa with a strong 38 points posted. The pace sputtered significantly in the second half with Winston putting up anemic numbers. Three missed field goals didn’t help, but luckily the game made it to overtime. A touchdown was necessary, and Jameis delivered when it mattered most. A quick pick six sealed this bet.

I really hope Jameis gets resigned, betting on him has been a ton of fun. There aren’t many quarterbacks that can stage comebacks (or set his own team back) like Jameis can.

3) NE SU vs. MIA, NO SU @ CAR, TEN SU @ HOU (-110)This one certainly seemed like a safe bet, with all teams having vital playoff implications based on the outcomes of the game. The Saints immediately handled their business, and the game was basically finished after the first quarter with Grier and the Panthers offense failing to generate anything. Even with Kyle Allen coming in, he was good for a turnover, and couldn’t generate much beyond yards for Christian McCaffery.

In Houston, the Titans took care of business, with Derrick Henry scoring multiple touchdowns in the second half. They earned themselves a trip to New England, and they look like a very well rounded team going into that matchup.

I was very surprised that the leg to lose this parlay was the Pats. A shocking loss to Miami after closing as 16.5 point favorites is quite shocking, and very ‘un-pats-like’. Onto the Wild Card Round?

4) NO -6.5 @ CAR, KC -1.5 vs. LAC, WAS +17 @ DAL (+150)Washington kept it close to start, but this game was over mid-way through the third. Unfortunately it’s all for naught as the Eagles were able to win against the Giants, sealing the Cowboys fate in itself.

5) SF -3 @ SEA (-125)A game that the Niners virtually needed if they wanted to legitimately make a Super Bowl run. The defense returned to form, and the Seahawks losing a great deal of depth in their running game helped a lot to secure this bet as well. In the end it came down to the defense holding. There will be some controversial calls, but in the end the Niners, and the bet pulled through.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 17, 2019)

I’ve been writing retrospectives on my bets throughout 2019, documenting lessons learned, and keeping track of the units I’ve gained (or lost). This isn’t the typical format, as most folks focus much more on on bet PREVIEWS in efforts to share their thoughts/bets with their viewers and hopefully make everyone some money. I’ve finally decided to hop on the bandwagon and start posting about my bets prior to game time. I’ll update this article as the week goes on as I place wagers based on line movements/how my sentiments change.

1) NO -6.5 @ CAR, KC -1.5 vs. LAR, WAS +17 @ DAL (+150)

2) TEN SU @ HOU, NE SU vs. MIA, NO SU @ CAR (-110)

3) SF -3 @ SEA (-125)Week 17 is tricky in that less than half of NFL teams actually play meaningful football. This results in starters playing for half the game, more lackadaisical play, etc. As such, I tried to find meaningful games and/or games where the stats. have been too loud to ignore. In addition, there are some teams peaking at the right time, while others seem to be sputtering longingly into the offseason. As such, there’s some softness there as well.

In terms of the Saints, they can still get a bye in the playoffs, and a big part of that is beating the Panthers who have been absolutely terrible recently. Will Grier has only contributed to Carolina’s folly, and the only thing they’ll be chasing on Sunday are single-season records for CMC. I expect the Saints to win, and win comfortably. Even if they sit Brees in the fourth (which I don’t think Brees will do willingly given how Bridgewater performed earlier in the year) the Saints have a much higher caliber of backup QB compared to most other teams.

The Chiefs have a very slim chance at a bye if the Patriots lose. That being said, the Pats are playing the Dolphins. The good news is that these games are played at the same time. It’s unlikely that the Chiefs would sit their starters prior to the 2nd half. Beyond that, the Chargers haven’t shown much recently. I am always a bit worried about Phillip Rivers/the Chargers propensity to charge into fierce comeback attempts. However, these typically fall short, so I feel good about the Chiefs laying the 1.5 points.

Since the bye, the Cowboys have only had 2 games result in a final score beyond the 17 points we’re getting with Washington here. Those two games were against the New York Giants, and the Jekyll side of the Rams. Washington has been producing offense recently, only scoring less than 19 points one time in the last 6 weeks. In addition, they have kept games close (at least within 17 points), and have nothing further to gain by losing this game. However they have a lot to gain, as acting as spoiler to the Cowboys is something I’m sure Washington would love to do.

New England needs to win to secure the bye. I’d be shocked if Bill Belichick allowed the Dolphins and Fitzmagic steal the bye from him. This should also be a great ‘get-right game’ for the Pats prior to playing in the AFC Divisional Game.

The Titans absolutely need the win, and despite what the Texans have been saying, I do not believe that they will play all of their starters. Further, their offense sputtered on Saturday after Will Fuller was sidelined. He isn’t expected to play. Between the Titans urgency and Texans apathy I feel like the Titans should be able to close this one out.

Seattle just resigned Marshawn Lynch with Robert Turbin in the backfield like we’re back in 2014. Both players are familiar with the system, and they’re fresh. However, it’s yet to be seen how game-ready these two are. In addition, Seattle may have less to play for than the 49ers given how the playoff situation during the day shakes out. If they can’t secure a bye, it may change how the Seahawks think about this game.

I feel good about this bet from the onset, blending meaningful games, favorable spreads/matchups compared to recent performance, and cheering against the Cowboys.

Bet Review (NFL Week 16, 2019)

1) BUF +6.5 @ NE (-105)

My thought behind this bet was that it would be a low scoring, tight affair regardless of the ultimate winner. As such, 6.5 points seemed like a gift. Both teams generally struggled to score, and the game was close until the Patriots scored last in the 4th. The Pats were gifted with a penalty and went for 2, which was a gift for this bet. However, the attempt was successful. I still feel like this was a good bet, and is just another reason to dislike the Patriots.

2) BUF @ NE Under 42.5, SF -.5 vs. LAR (-110)

The Patriots were able to win, but the game total stayed at 41. It’s fortunate the low-scoring portion of my prediction came through on this game.

The 49ers made this one unnecessarily exciting, shooting themselves in the foot several times. Between the San Francisco QB’s propensity to hold the ball for too long, the fading of the vaunted 49ers pass rush, and Jared Goff able to string drives together, the 49ers did just enough to win the game. I’ll likely stay away from the 49ers moving forward as their D-Line is too talented to fade, but the streaky offense is enough to make me want to stay away.

3) PIT @ NYJ Under 37.5 (-110)

I’ve been riding Pittsburgh on the under for a couple weeks now. The defense is just too talented, and the offense is inept. The shuffling of quarterbacks due to injury on the side of the Steelers is unfortunate, but I’ll continue to ride the Steelers while I can. The Jets are streaky, and have nothing to play for. As predicted, the Jets offense had a few bright spots, but was generally kept in check by the Steelers. Opposite, the Steelers failed to produce much of any offense, and the injuries continue to pile up.

4) BAL -10 @ CLE (-105)

One of the two teams to beat the Ravens this year was the Browns back in Week 4. That was a very different Browns team, however the two games started very similarly. The Browns struck first, and the first half was very calm in terms of scoring. Late in the second, the Ravens hit on two quick touchdown drives. From there, the Ravens started to demonstrate why they are the #1 seed in the AFC, and the Browns unravelled in typical fashion.

5) BAL -4 @ CLE, KC SU @CHI (-110)

The Chiefs took control of this game from the start with a revitalized defense. Turbisky wasn’t able to sustain a drive all night, although he did avoid committing a turnover. The Chiefs seem to be getting hot at the right time, and will be a tough out in the playoffs.