Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 2, 2020)

I’m still getting over the De’Andre Swift drop, but Week Two is here and it’s time to post some bets. I’ve taken some learnings from Week One to hopefully hone in on some wins this Sunday:

  1. KC -8.5 @ LAC (-110)
    Last week Kansas City showed that they were firing on all cylinders, from the Offense looking as potent as their Super Bowl run, and the defense clamping down on the Houston Offense until letting up in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs only needing 1.5 more points to cover against the Chargers (basically the Chiefs second home field) feels like it should be an easy cover. Especially, after the Chargers were unable to get any prolonged offense going against the woeful Bungles last week.
  2. BAL -7 @ HOU (-105)
    Similar to the above, Baltimore didn’t look to lose a step from 2019. Further, defenses did not get the expected time to prepare for Lamar Jackson’s dynamic style of play, so he’s still catching folks as flat-footed as last season. The Houston Offense struggled to find its rhythm, and the impact of losing DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t seem to be built into this line. I’ll take Baltimore to win by more than 7 against a Texans team that still trying to find itself on offense.
  3. MIN +3 @ IND (-110)
    This may be my spiciest take of the week, but I didn’t think the Vikings were that bad against the Packers last week. The defense allowed an angry Aaron Rodgers to make his way down the field, however, a twilight-year Phillip Rivers is a far cry from the Vikings Week One opponent. The Vikings also showed an ability to score quickly if needed, with Adam Thielen still being an excellent option at receiver. I think Vegas may have over-compensated for the Vikings faltering last week, and I’ll take the 3 points against the turnover-prone Rivers.
  4. BUF -6 @ MIA (-110)
    Buffalo looked great last week against the Jets, and get another good matchup against Miami in Week Two. Devante Parker looks to be hobbled, and the Bills Defense should be more than able to contain the Dolphins Offense that struggled significantly against the Pats last week. I foresee a similar result for the Dolphins this week, and will gladly take the Bills to win by more than six. The Bills have a very similar aura to the early-season 49ers from last season, and if they can further build momentum early this year, I’ll be more aggressively taking the Bills in the future.
  5. DET +6.5 @ GB (-110)
    I don’t like to chase, but I really believe in the Lions this year. Detroit lost in classic Lions fashion last week against the Bears, but it was more so the Lions losing the game than the Bears winning. The Packers looked angry, but I expect this to be a shootout with great backdoor cover potential. Further, with these divisional matchups there’s always room for a funky game script which I think benefits the Lions greatly here.
  6. KC -2.5 @ LAC / SF -1 @ NYJ (-110)
    I’m a huge 49ers fan, and even I think the team looked to be in the midst of a terrible Super Bowl hangover in Week One. That being said, the Jets looked to be absolutely inept against the Bills last week. This is really a bet on the Jets being terrible, not the 49ers returning to form. Given the state of both offenses, I anticipate an ugly game with many blown opportunities, but the 49ers eking out a win.

I’ll be feeling out other lines as the weekend progresses. There’s a trend of taking road favorites above, which makes sense to me given the waning impact of home field ‘advantage’ in recent years. This should be exacerbated this year, as mostly empty stadiums should further fuel the trend.

Place your bets, set your lineups, and prepare your body. Good luck!

Sports Bet Review (Superbowl, 2019/2020 Season)

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I’ve put off this post for a long, long time. As many readers may not know, I am a die-hard 49ers fan, so a loss in the manner that the 49ers lost the Superbowl, in the 4th quarter comeback enabled by the team letting their foot off the gas, it was devastating. At least in 2012, the 49ers were on the side of the comeback, just coming up a little short. Fandom aside, I’ll take a closer look at some of these bets:

The one that burned hotter than the rest was the loss of Patrick Mahomes rushing yards. This felt safe throughout the game, but somehow Mahomes lost almost 20 yards of rushing as he ran the game out.

I had the wrong kicker on the “longest field goal made” bet, with Gould knocking one in from over 40 out. Unfortunately, the game script never lent well for a long FG by Butker, but I don’t feel too bad about this one, as he definitely has the leg for it.

Onto next season, but the pain of this one will linger for years to come.

Bet Review (NFL Week 8, 2019)

1) SEA -1 @ ATL, LAR -6.5 vs. CIN (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • In hindsight should’ve taken Seattle on its own here.
  • Don’t let garbage time fool you, the Falcons are absolutely terrible.
  • Rams in London were predictable, but it didn’t feel as safe as it should’ve.

Verdict: Good tease, felt like the lines should’ve been reversed. I expect the Falcons to start having Washington/Miami-esque lines.

2A) CAR +6 @ SF (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • I thought this may be a close/low scoring game, but it turns out Kyle Allen is a backup QB after all.
  • Based on my perceived game script this wager was a hedge based on line movements.
    Niners fired on all cylinders, and controlled the game from the start.

2B) IND 0 vs. DEN, SF +0.5 (-110)

  • Colts really made me sweat this one out, but the Broncos defense has turned it around (Bradley Chubb Ewing Theory)

Verdict: I should’ve believed in the 49ers. Colts are well-coached and can win close ones, but Denver may not be a sure-fire loser.

3) NO -4.5 vs. AZ, NE -7 vs. CLE (-110)

  • The Saints defense is very good, the Cardinals defense is very young and injured. 4.5 seemed safe.
    Brees return marks the Saints return as an NFC contender, and the whole team seemed energized.
    Got in on the Pats line at a bad time, but the tease down was enough to cover comfortably (and ended up covering 13 anyway).
    Pats are too well-run to doubt against bad teams.

Verdict: Wagered on good teams against bad teams. Typically a safe approach.

Bet Review (Week 5, 2019)

1) LAR SU @ SEA (+105)

Lessons learned:

  • Jared Goff is unreliable at home and away. Anywhere near a competent defense will ruffle him.
  • Rams Defense is overrated at the moment. Undisciplined against mobile QBs, making the opposing receivers much stronger plays.
  • Cooper Kupp is the only reliable piece of offense for the Rams.
  • Seattle O-line isn’t terrible anymore.

Verdict: Stop betting on the Rams. Stop betting on Thursday games.

2) NE @ WAS Over 42 (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • The Pats have a kicker problem.
  • Washington has a quarterback problem.
  • Needed the Pats to excecute the offense (no missed kicks or red zone turnovers).
  • Needed some success from Washington in garbage time.

Verdict: Only off by 2, lots of things had to break the wrong way. Would take this one again.

3) CHI +1 @ OAK, JAX +9.5 @ CAR, NE -9.5 @WAS (+170)

Lessons Learned:

  • The Raiders (especially Josh Jacobs) might be better than we thought.
  • Chase Daniels showed why he’s a backup quarterback. Although, the Bears did have their chance.
  • New England doesn’t have trap games.
  • Gardner Minshew keeps games close when they shouldn’t be.
  • Hard to say what will happen when two questionable offenses face off, maybe steer clear of these.

Verdict: Be cautious of meh offenses, but the structure here feels good to replicate.

4) AZ +3 @ CIN (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • The Bungles are very bad, garbage time is nice for fantasy though.
  • The Cardinals will score (had plenty of missed opportunities, including a FG.).
  • Still a bit risky to bet on bad teams.

Verdict: Sorry Cincinnati.

5) TB +9.5 @ NO, Under 52 (-120)

Lessons Learned:

  • Jameis is still inconsistent, as is the Bucs secondary.
  • The Saints skill players are good enough to score without an elite QB against an inconsistent defense.
  • Home field advantage is meaningful for the Saints.

Verdict: Not too far off on this one. Saints offense was better than expected, and the defense nullified Mike Evans. Don’t like betting the spread and total.

6) LAC 0 vs. DEN, DAL +3 vs. GB (-120)

Lessons Learned;

  • The Chargers are cursed, and did not look interested in playing football today.
  • Green Bay defense looks very good, demonstrating TNF’s wonkiness.
  • Preseason is over for the Packers offense, missing Devante was well planned for.
  • The Cowboys offense’s reputation was buyoed by their wildly easy first two games.

Verdict: Staying away from the Chargers, Packers may be better than previously shown.

7) IND +11 @ KC, Over 56 (+264)

Lessons Learned:

  • Injuries hampered KC’s offense and impacted the game script.
  • The Colts focused on minimizing Mahomes’ opportunities and it severely limited scoring.
  • KC has let teams linger, so the line felt vulnerable.

Verdict: It’d be irresponsible to plan for this level of injuries. Colts had a good game plan, and it’ll likely be replicated in the future as well.

Bet Review (Week 4, 2019)

1) GB -4 vs. PHI (-105)

Lessons Learned:

  • Thursday night games are bad.
  • Green Bay had plenty of opportunities, lots of stalls in the red zone.
  • Philadelphia with receivers and using Jordan Howard appropriately are good to see.

Verdict: No more betting on Thursday night.

2) CLE @ BAL Over 45 (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • The oddsmakers have no faith in Baker.
  • Baltimore can score, especially loves their TEs.

Verdict: Felt low, went with it. Success!

3) KC @ DET Over 55 (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • KC can score and has a porous defense.
  • DET can score and has a porous defense.

Verdict: 55 looks like a lot, but each team can score, and the other will have to keep up.

4) KC -6.5 @ DET (-105)

Lessons Learned:

  • Mahomes in a dome hype got to me.
  • Detroit kept it close rather than my garbage time envisioned narrative.

Verdict: Doesn’t feel too bad, but will remember this for future DET wagers.

5/6) KC -0.5 @ DET, NE -0.5 @ BUF, TB @ LAR -2.5 (+150)

KC -0.5 @ DET, OAK @ IND -2.5, TB @ LAR -2.5 (+150)

Lessons Learned:

  • Trust the Pats, trust the Chiefs
  • T.Y. Hilton is very important.
  • The Rams are very streaky, especially on defense. Shouldn’t be this bad, still has the talent and playcalling on offense.
  • Tampa’s offense can score in bunches, Jameis can still be sloppy.

Verdict: Be weary of the Rams, trust until proven otherwise with the Chiefs and Pats.