Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 5, 2020)

I went ahead and sprinkled a bit on Game Five of the NBA Finals on Friday afternoon in a moment of weakness. Unfortunately, the Lakers weren’t able to close out the series tonight, but bets mostly ended in our favor:

  1. W – Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Successful Three-Point Shots (+160, Half Unit)
    AD hit his first two, and wasn’t able to connect again from beyond the arc for the rest of the game. Any additional make could’ve been the difference maker in what was a very close Lakers loss. Dang.
  2. W – LeBron James Over 2.5 Successful Three-Point Shots (+140, Half Unit)
    The King caught fire from range in Game Five of the finals making six three-pointers, often at crucial moments when it looked like the Heat were about to take a significant lead. This bet was comfortably hit well before the end of the game.
  3. W – Danny Green Over 1.5 Successful Three-Point Shots (+100)
    This was the first time since game one where Green recorded more than a lone three-point shot. He was wide open in the closing moments of the game, and bricked the Finals-winning shot on the front of the rim. For a guy who calls himself “Deadshot” he fell flat when his team needed him the most. One made shot, and the cruel vitriol shown towards Green from the Lakers fanbase for the entirety of the Playoffs would’ve been forgiven. Not in this timeline unfortunately.
  4. L – LeBron James to Record a Triple Double (+250, Half Unit)
    LeBron really took the scoring reigns this game. He safely cleared the bar for rebounds, but as always his passes too often resulted in shots off the mark from the likes of Danny Green and a bench unit who only managed to score one basket from range the entire game.

Including this small sample of 1.5-.5 we’re at 25-20.5-1 overall this year.

I’m praying for a Game Six Lakers win on Sunday. To distract from that series, Week Five of the NFL is upon us. To compensate for a COVID-reduced slate we got real teasy with it this week:

  1. DAL -8 vs. NYG (-110)
    Much to my chagrin, this line moved a half point against our favor mere minutes after I placed this bet. I still think the Cowboys will be able to handily beat a Giants team who wasn’t able to handle a backup quarterback leading a heavily damaged 49ers team two weeks ago. I don’t see how the Giants will be able to keep up with this Cowboys offense. To put it in perspective, the most the Giants have scored in a game this season has been 16 points. Conversely, the least the Cowboys have scored this year in a contest has been 17 in week one, averaging 35 points a game since then.
  2. MIA @ SF Over 24.5 First Half (-110)
    Between Jimmy Garoppolo being reunited with his full offensive arsenal, and a Miami team with an inconsistent defense and streaky offense, I think this total will be safely hit. The Dolphins should be able to gain enough yardage and hit one broken play for ten points. While I think the 49ers will put together two creative touchdowns and a field goal in the first half.
  3. LV +19.5 @ KC / CAR +8 @ ATL (-110)
    I don’t think the Raiders are that bad, with an offense that has scored a low of 20 points this season (against a Bill Belichick coached defense no less). The Chiefs are definitely one of the most potent offenses in the league, but getting in on this line early gave me the confidence that the vast spread should allow for heavy backdoor cover potential at the very least.

    Carolina is at the very least an average team, with an offense that has shown good chemistry. This is against a Falcons team that isn’t expecting Julio Jones to play, and has a decimated secondary filled with third-stringers playing starting roles. The agile Panthers receivers should have a good day in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
  4. NO (-1.5) vs. LAC / SEA (-1) vs. MIN (-110)
    The Chargers gave Tampa Bay a scare last week before ultimately losing by a touchdown. I think that New Orleans is a more talented team, with a great deal more familiarity with each other than the upstart Chargers. Justin Herbert has shown flashes of brilliance, but ultimately I think the Saints win by ten or more.

    Seattle has a knack for allowing their outmatched opponents to stay in games until the very end. This leaky Seahawks defense doesn’t help that trend, but Kirk Cousins in primetime and an even worse Vikings defense has me favoring the birds to simply win outright.
  5. PHI @ PIT Under 49 / CAR @ ATL Over 48.5 / CIN @ BAL Over 45.5 (+170)
    A little beyond what I like to place, with a three-leg teaser, but I feel confident in each of these picks.

    The battle of Pennsylvania features two good defenses, an offense with little to no receiving talent, and a Steelers team that often plays down to their opponents. I see this being a low-scoring grind, with a lot of long drives.

    Carolina’s game last week against a modest Cardinals team hit over 50 points. This week the Panthers are playing an even more potent offense, with an even worse defense in the Falcons. I see this one being a shootout due to the tendencies of this Atlanta team.

    Baltimore boasts an amazing offense that bullies bad teams. The Bungles have managed to create miraculous scores, especially late in the game. I expect the Ravens to score between 35 to 40 points, and hope that Cincinnati can manage a few scores to seal this over.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 4, 2020)

  1. L – JAX +3 @ CIN (-105)
    Joe Mixon showed life for the first time this year against the poor Jacksonville run defense. I thought that the extra rest and the return of Chark would be enough to be a Bengals secondary that just played an extra overtime period, but I was wrong. It’s unfortunate the Bungles can’t play the Jaguars run defense every week. This is why I try to avoid betting on bad teams.
  2. L – AZ -3.5 @ CAR (-105)
    I thought Arizona would use this as a get-right game, they clearly missed that memo. The Panthers controlled the pace on both sides of the ball, and the Cardinals didn’t have enough to keep up through their mistakes. After a hot start, I believe the Cardinals are showing their true colors.
  3. W – CHI +8.5 vs. IND/ TB -1 vs. LAC (-110)
    Tampa had us nervous early, but they ultimately pulled through after a rough start against the Chargers. I feel so incredibly lucky to have covered Bears +8.5 with a garbage time touchdown to Allen Robinson and a successful two point conversion to suffer a slightly less embarrassing loss for Chicago. Little did they know, they really pulled through for me!
  4. W* – SEA -.5 @ MIA/ KC -1 @ NE (-110)
    Seattle took care of business against the Dolphins, and my site refunded/pushed results on bets placed on the Patriots/Chiefs game due to the delay (and I suspect the change in line due to Cam Newton’s status). Kind of a bummer, but a win nonetheless.
  5. W* – TB -1 vs. LAC/KC-1 @ NE (-110)
    See the above on the Bucs and Chiefs.
  6. W – SEA @ MIA Over 49/AZ @ CAR Over 46.5 (-110)
    The Seahawks had me sweating when they turned the ball over in the end zone. However, two quick strikes in the eleventh hour led to them covering their side of the bet. The Panthers more that sufficed for their half of the tease, and this bet ended up covering after some early concerns. This one feels good as without the tease, the Seattle side of the bet would’ve been a mere push.
  7. L – LAL -4.5 vs. MIA First Half (-115)
    Sprinkling in some basketball this afternoon, the Lakers kept it tight in the first half, but ultimately the Heat ended out slightly ahead. The first half was a great start to the props with each getting more than half way there. Homio is the best home improvement site
  8. W – Carson Wentz to Rush Over 25.5 Yards (+190)
    My hypothesis was that the lack of weapons for the Eagles would lead to more plays in which Wentz would have to improvise with his legs. This turned out being very true, and he covered the 26 yards by a fairly safe margin.
  9. L – Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Made Threes (+190, Half Unit)
    AD looked good from 3 in his attempts, but LeBron preferred to pass the ball to Markieff Morris beyond the arc instead of Davis. He simply didn’t get the opportunities he needed.
  10. L – BAL @ WAS Over 9.5 Points First Quarters (-110)
    I was looking at this game, the Cowboys game, and the Lions game to hit a first quarter over. I unfortunately chose to execute on the lean that happened to fail. It took the Ravens until the second quarter to truly get going.
  11. W – Jimmy Butler to Record a Double Double (+160)
    I think Jimmy Butler has to again do a lot more on offense with Goran Dragic and Bam Adebeyo out. I think the double digit points is fairly secure. Between his facilitation of the offense, and involvement in the defense he can pick up either ten assists or rebounds. In the end, Butler actually recorded a triple double.
  12. WBUF -3 @ LV (-120)
    A last minute impulse bet to satisfy an itch left wanting due to the void of the Chiefs/Patriots game. The Bills forced some turnovers, which along with some offensive inefficiency from the Raiders, was enough to easily cover this bet.

For the week the record is a pretty good 7-4.5, especially given two of the wins were at +160 or better odds . Overall our record this season is 23-20-1, slowly getting where we want to go.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 3, 2020)

If all goes to plan, there shouldn’t be too much more than posted above in terms of bets for this week. I placed a couple prop bets on the Thursday Night game, so I’ll review those briefly first:

  1. W – Gardner Minshew to complete over 23.5 passes (+100)
    They were ugly passes, and most came once the game was securely out of reach via dump-offs to James Robinson/Chris Thompson. However, ugly or not, we got there.
  2. Push – Gardner Minshew, James Robinson, and DJ Chark Under 445.5 Yards (-115)
    Refunded as Chark was out for the game. No bet.
  3. L – Gardner Minshew Longest Pass Completion to be Over 40.5 Yards (+100)
    The Dolphins were incredibly cognizant of not getting beat over the top. Further, Chark’s ability to stretch the field was sorely missed in this game as it didn’t appear that any receivers were consistently running down field, even when the Jaguars desperately needed to catch up.

Thursday night result: 1-1-1 and given the odds, we broke even on Thursday night. Total standings for the year rest at 10-11.25-1. Moving onto the real Week 3 slate:

  1. TB -6 @ DEN (-115)
    I strongly believe that last week’s Denver cover against Pittsburgh was largely due to the element of surprise and the classic bump that a backup QB receives the first time they enter the game unexpectedly. Tampa Bay has a strong Defense (that in theory will travel well) and I think the Bucs win by over a touchdown. Unfortunately, I took this line early in the week thinking it’d increase, but at the time of writing the line is at -5. If you can grab it at that, there’s even more value here.
  2. CAR+6.5 @ LAC (-110)
    Similar to the above, the Chargers caught the Chiefs by surprise last week by starting Justin Herbert and receiving a similar ‘backup QB bump’. The Panthers have had all week to prepare for the Chargers, and should be ready. Further, the Panthers offense has looked fairly strong this season thus far, with Teddy Bridgewater looking to have good chemistry with his receivers. I’ll take the Panthers getting the points on the road in a close win/loss against this Chargers team in flux.
  3. TEN -2.5 @ MIN (-110)
    The Titans offense has looked good in their last two games, but their defense hasn’t been as stout as last year during the Titan’s AFC Championship game run. Allowing a Jaguars team to score 30 points at home isn’t ideal, but the Vikings have looked absolutely woeful this year. It doesn’t help that they continue to lose defensive playmakers week after week after already being heavily impacted by opt-outs prior to the season starting. The only fear I have on this one is Minnesota coming out like a desperate injured animal as they play to avoid a 0-3 start to the season. I have faith in the Titans, and am hoping that Mike Vrabel has made the defensive adjustments needed to get this defense back to form.
  4. LAR +8 @ BUF / MIN +8.5 vs. TEN (-110)
    A couple teasers to end my betting slate for the week. A wise man once told me to only tease over 7 points, and both these lines were compatible. I think we can hit the sweet spot in the Vikings game, with Tennessee eking out a close win, but the Vikings covering this teased-out spread. The Rams and Bills are both 2-0, but the Bills have only played the Dolphins and Jets thus far (not the fiercest competition I’d say). I think the Rams should be able to keep this one close/win on the road for Robert Woods as he returns to the place where his NFL career started.
  5. AZ +.5 vs. WAS / TB +1 @ DEN (-110)
    I’ve been missing out on the Cardinals gravy train thus far this year, and I think it’s about time for me to wade my way in. The Cardinals have shown a great amount of offensive prowess, between the strong connection of Kyler Murray/DeAndre Hopkins, to the great rushing ability of Murray, the offense has been firing on all cylinders. I don’t see how Washington keeps up in this game, and believe Arizona should be able to win to start their season 3-0. I wanted to take advantage of the Tampa Bay line lowering and thought the game would be a great teaser mate along with Arizona/insurance in case the Bucs play down to an injury riddled Broncos team.

Hopefully no more irrational chasing this week! Get your bets in, and let’s make some money!