L –DAL -8 vs. NYG (-110) This bet looked good until Dak Prescott was forced from the game. Ultimately the Cowboys won, but bad break for this bet. Hoping for a speedy recovery for the franchise-tagged quarterback.
W – MIA @ SF Over 24.5 First Half (-110) As a 49er fan this one did not go as intended. I imagined this one going the way of San Francisco early, instead we saw more Fitzmagic off of bad 49er turnovers. The bet secured, but there’s sadness in my heart.
W – LV +19.5 @ KC / CAR +8 @ ATL (-110) The Raiders actually won outright, which comes as a surprise even with the line moving from 13.5 when we took this teaser to 11 at close. The Chiefs defense looked tired, likely due to their wonky schedule from the previous week. Derek Carr’s outburst after last week’s loss looks to have worked as he secures only his third win against the Chiefs in his career. The Panthers pile onto Atlanta’s woes, winning the game outright by seven points. My only regret is not taking a moneyline parlay here which would’ve resulted in much better odds.
? – NO (-1.5) vs. LAC / SEA (-1) vs. MIN (-110) Pending Monday game. We only pushed on half, could still be a half win.
L – PHI @ PIT Under 49 / CAR @ ATL Over 48.5 / CIN @ BAL Over 45.5(+170) The battle of the Keystone State did not result in a low scoring ham-fisted bar fight. Rather, it was a high scoring shootout not representative of the teams’ defenses. Carolina didn’t need to score much as the Panthers totally stymied the Falcons scoring despite Calvin Ridley being able to generate bunches of yardage. This game also fell short of expectations. Lastly, the Bungles failed to score at all until the fourth quarter, and the Ravens had a couple key stalls in the red zone. Overall, this bet failed on all legs, and I’d describe this as ‘taking a big bath’ in Accounting terms.
W – AZ +1 vs. NYJ/PIT -1 vs. PHI (-110) Arizona played the terrible New York Jets featuring a washed Joe Flacco, and Pittsburgh was able to outgun an injured Eagles offensive roster. I was quite surprised by the Eagles being able to score so much against the Steelers. For now, I’ll chalk this up to Pittsburgh playing down to it’s opposition and not worry about the offense for now.
L – Jimmy Butler to Record a Triple Double (+245, Half-Unit) If the Heat do anything, it’ll be through Jimmy Butler was my logic here. He’s been sensational thus far in the series, and win or loss this trend should hold. Unfortunately, the whole Miami team fell a bit flat tonight and Butler fell a few assists and rebounds short of hitting this target.
W – Anthony Davis to Record a Double Double (-110, Half-Unit) I personally think the odds should’ve been plus here given Davis’ perpetual lumbering every time his step needs to be slightly adjusted. However, any minutes he does play will be very active (it is the finals). He secured the bet midway through the fourth quarter.
L – Russell Wilson Longest Pass Over 43.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit) Wilson had a final drive completion to DK Metcalf that fell four yards short of closing this bet. The rain didn’t help the cause, and the Vikings really only let Wilson have one half to pass as their defense held stout for much of the game.
W – Russell Wilson Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Half-Unit) Wilson hit 35 rushing yards in the first half. There’s something about primetime games that activate the ‘Gotta make something out of nothing’ mentality that gets quarterbacks legs moving. Wilson especially is very adept using his legs to pick up yardage and this was a comfortable hit.
Overall this week we ended at 4-3 and I’ll come back for the Monday Night result. Currently for the season we sit at 29-23.5-1.
W – LAL -2 vs. DEN 1Q (-110) Started the weekend slate a little early with a unit on the Lakers game. As a Lakers fan I try to keep business and personal matters separate, but I had a thought that the Lakers would come out fast, and keep things close to start the game. I had a lean for the half as well, but didn’t end up pulling the trigger on that one unfortunately. Excited to see my team in the Finals where I’ll aim to steer clear of bets and simply enjoy as a fan.
W – TB -6 @ DEN (-115) Tampa won comfortably as the offense had enough success, along with great field position courtesy of the Bucs’ defense taking advantage of two backup quarterbacks in Denver. There was never much doubt that Tampa would cover after twenty minutes or so after the start of the game.
W – CAR+6.5 @ LAC (-110) The Panthers were in the lead the entire game, but it was mostly off the leg of Kicker Joey Slye who kicked five successful field goals to fuel Carolina’s 21 to 16 win. Panthers unders/covers seem more intriguing moving forward as the offense appears competent. The defense is still leaky despite holding firm this week against the rookie quarterback.
L – TEN -2.5 @ MIN (-110) The early red zone opportunities that were converted into mere field goals bode poorly for this bet, as the Titans were allowing the Vikings to stay very much in the game. After missing a couple touchdown opportunities the Vikings firmly took control of the game until choking late. The Titans missed a two point conversion that would’ve gotten us to the cover. A bad beat based on a line that seemed too good to be true. Luckily, we had some insurance on this one.
W – LAR +8 @ BUF / MIN +8.5 vs. TEN (-110) The Rams had us sweating it out early, but they surprisingly pulled through late despite losing to the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills late in the fourth. The Vikings avoided going 0-3 in an incredibly ugly fashion, telegraphing their impending playoff miss. A teaser that was deflated early on with the Rams, but ended up comfortably covering.
L – AZ +.5 vs. DET/ TB +1 @ DEN (-110) Trying to get in on the Cardinals gravy train got me. The Lions remember last year’s tie, and had the desperation of a team avoiding a winless fate (like their division-rivals the Vikings). Unfortunately, the Cardinals offense made too many mistakes, and wasted a safe Tampa Bay cover. Goes to show, going against the public, and trusting your initial instincts despite line movements is advice that I should’ve followed here.
W – SEA @ DAL First Half Over 27.5 (-110) When D.K. Metcalf got a would-be touchdown reception punched out the back of the end zone for a touchback, I thought this bet was lost. However, the secondaries of these teams are both leaky enough that other big plays ensued after this initial miss. An easy cover about half way through the second quarter.
W – CIN +5.5 @ PHI (-110) A tie! The Eagles actually couldn’t do it, and Joe Burrow covers again! The Eagles really did sign a deal with the devil to win that Super Bowl as the team has underperformed due to a plague of injuries ever since winning (even during that run). Joe Burrow does enough, and neither team wanted to win. I would’ve vastly preferred a close Eagles win in regulation as a touchdown by the Eagles would put us out of the money, but offensive ineptitude wins!
W – Aaron Rodgers Longest Pass Over 39.5 Yards (+100) I don’t know why I couldn’t leave good enough alone. A winning day without some needless props, but here we are. I see these kinds of props and it’s really just cheering for excitement, which is as undisciplined of approach you can have, put in the heat of Sunday I couldn’t help myself. Rodgers found Allen Lazard out from a leaky Saints secondary and hit him for 48 yards early in the second quarter to seal this bet.
L – Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (+250 / Quarter Unit) Rushing for 13 yards in the first half seemed encouraging enough, but the Saints rush defense played much better than their secondary. Rodgers was able to make several long passes, but didn’t need to scramble to secure a Packers win.
L – Aaron Rodgers Over 23.5 Completions (+100) The recipe for the Packers offensive success against the Saints was long passes, not the dink/dunk kind we needed to cover this bet. While it was close, Aaron Jones was a bit too successful on the ground to close this one.
On the day we ended 6-4.25. Overall, on the season we are 16-15.5-1. A good comeback effort from last week for sure, but a couple bad beats/unnecessary prop bets to end the day. Onto Week Four.
L – KC -8.5 @ LAC (-110) Justin Herbert starting for the Chargers was an unexpected wrinkle for this bet, but I thought it to be a positive factor when it was first announced. However, what I didn’t factor in was the ineptitude put on display by the Chiefs Defense, allowing Chargers Receivers large areas of cushion, and poor tackling leading to additional YAC. Further, the Chiefs Offense failed to produce against a talented/stout Chargers Defense. Rather than a blowout win, the Chiefs eke out a slim win in overtime and will try to learn from this close call in their pursuit of a championship repeat.
W – BAL -7 @ HOU (-105) A massive thank you to the Ravens for performing as expected and preventing a completely win-less day for our betting outfit here. The defense played as expected, and even though the Houston offense contained Lamar Jackson better than I expected, the turnovers kept this game securely in the hands of Baltimore for the entire duration.
L – MIN +3 @ IND (-110) The Vikings are actually very bad, and the Colts shooting themselves in the foot may actually be an anomaly. Jonathan Taylor was able to fuel the offense singlehandedly (with the great Indianapolis O-Line), which gives me hope for this team, grounded in strong fundamentals. Kirk Cousins looks far worse than last year without Diggs stretching the field, and the defense has major gaps from COVID opt-outs.
L – BUF -6 @ MIA (-110) Fitzmagic is to Fitztragic as Jekyll is to Hyde, and this week we witnessed the magic. It wasn’t enough to win Miami the game, but it was enough for the Dolphins to cover this bet instead of taking their tank gracefully (which would’ve allowed the Bills to win by 11). If the Bills can’t even beat the Dolphins, are they truly contenders? Or, could this just be a case of playing in Miami in September and inter-division shenanigans?
L – DET +6.5 @ GB (-110) The Lions going up with early 14 points all but secured a sad finish to the day. After this point the Packers came back with fury, and Detroit’s Defense could do little but watch. My Lions love continues to look more foolish as the weeks go on. Green Bay is the real deal and the Aaron Rodgers revenge tour is in full swing.
KC -2.5 @ LAC / SF -1 @ NYJ (-110) The 49ers covered their side of the bet despite losing multiple first round picks on defense, their starting running back, and most of all Jimmy Garoppolo looked to sustain a fairly significant injury. Luckily for San Francisco, they faced one of the worst teams in the league, and won comfortably. Harrison Butker secured the overtime win for his team and this bet. The Chiefs won’t likely repeat such an ugly result against such a poor opponent this season, and I’ll try to wash this one from my memory. Kickers are important!
L – PIT -6.5 vs. DEN (-110) My late pick of the week, and this time it didn’t pan out. The vaunted Steelers Defense looked fairly permeable against the fearsome backup quarterback Jeff Driskel and the Broncos league of young receivers. There was a chance for the Steelers to come back and cover at the end of the game, but James Conners couldn’t finish in the end zone (probably smart for the real game) and Pittsburgh ended up winning by only five. An unexpected result from my perspective for sure, especially given the quarterback situation for the Broncos.
L – KC @ LACOver 47 (-110) A panic pick I made to chase losses from the morning. As always, this is a mistake. The Chargers Defense was able to largely contain a Chiefs Offense with Super Bowl aspirations. Don’t chase.
W – LAL -3 vs. DEN 1Q (-105) Moving to NBA in the chances to get a win anywhere (clearly I didn’t listen to my future self’s advice above). LeBron James and the Lakers got on a hot streak sparked by a KCP (yes, KCP) three pointer. Denver then allowed an 18-2 run and the Lakers comfortably cruised to an eight point first quarter advantage.
W – Russell Wilson Longest Pass Over 37.5 Yards (+100) Props… as you can tell, I was spiraling by this point in the afternoon. However, 37.5 yards is just far too low of a mark for a quarterback like Russell Wilson with weapons like Tyler Lockette and D.K. Metcalf. The latter of which Wilson connected with on a 54 yard touchdown. This was one of my favorite props last post-season, and old habits die hard.
L – Russell Wilson Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (+300 / Quarter Unit) My thought here was the stout Patriots Secondary would push Wilson to use his legs at least a handful of times this game. Further, the lack of quick linebackers would enable chunk plays from Wilson on the ground. In the first half this bet was trending in the right direction. However, some dump off passes that could’ve gone for nominal rushing yardage eventually sunk this bet with Wilson hitting a couple yards shy of the mark, with 39 yards of rushing to end the night. Great odds, a partial bet, and a slim loss, so I don’t feel too poorly about this one.
L – NE +4.5 @ SEA (-105) More spiraling. I saw line movement, and jumped on it. A team with a new QB vs. a franchise stalwart? Sure. Away in a pandemic year? Why not. “In Bill Belichick, we trust”, as the locals say, and that’s good enough for me. Let’s just throw discipline out the window. I hate missed field goals, and Nick Folk missed one to put the Pats up 17-14 mid way through the second quarter. Ultimately, a missed field goal/two-point conversion was the difference in this bet, as the failed last second touchdown attempt wouldn’t have mattered if either of the aforementioned bad omens didn’t occur. I’d classify this one as a bad beat.
Overall for this week we ended an uninspiring 4 – 7.25. For the season we’re looking at 9-10.25. Special shoutout to the Lions and Vikings really making me look like a fool. No more chasing ; we’re going to stay disciplined next week, and I’m sure we can win this back.
I’m still getting over the De’Andre Swift drop, but Week Two is here and it’s time to post some bets. I’ve taken some learnings from Week One to hopefully hone in on some wins this Sunday:
KC -8.5 @ LAC (-110) Last week Kansas City showed that they were firing on all cylinders, from the Offense looking as potent as their Super Bowl run, and the defense clamping down on the Houston Offense until letting up in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs only needing 1.5 more points to cover against the Chargers (basically the Chiefs second home field) feels like it should be an easy cover. Especially, after the Chargers were unable to get any prolonged offense going against the woeful Bungles last week.
BAL -7 @ HOU (-105) Similar to the above, Baltimore didn’t look to lose a step from 2019. Further, defenses did not get the expected time to prepare for Lamar Jackson’s dynamic style of play, so he’s still catching folks as flat-footed as last season. The Houston Offense struggled to find its rhythm, and the impact of losing DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t seem to be built into this line. I’ll take Baltimore to win by more than 7 against a Texans team that still trying to find itself on offense.
MIN +3 @ IND (-110) This may be my spiciest take of the week, but I didn’t think the Vikings were that bad against the Packers last week. The defense allowed an angry Aaron Rodgers to make his way down the field, however, a twilight-year Phillip Rivers is a far cry from the Vikings Week One opponent. The Vikings also showed an ability to score quickly if needed, with Adam Thielen still being an excellent option at receiver. I think Vegas may have over-compensated for the Vikings faltering last week, and I’ll take the 3 points against the turnover-prone Rivers.
BUF -6 @ MIA (-110) Buffalo looked great last week against the Jets, and get another good matchup against Miami in Week Two. Devante Parker looks to be hobbled, and the Bills Defense should be more than able to contain the Dolphins Offense that struggled significantly against the Pats last week. I foresee a similar result for the Dolphins this week, and will gladly take the Bills to win by more than six. The Bills have a very similar aura to the early-season 49ers from last season, and if they can further build momentum early this year, I’ll be more aggressively taking the Bills in the future.
DET +6.5 @ GB (-110) I don’t like to chase, but I really believe in the Lions this year. Detroit lost in classic Lions fashion last week against the Bears, but it was more so the Lions losing the game than the Bears winning. The Packers looked angry, but I expect this to be a shootout with great backdoor cover potential. Further, with these divisional matchups there’s always room for a funky game script which I think benefits the Lions greatly here.
KC -2.5 @ LAC / SF -1 @ NYJ (-110) I’m a huge 49ers fan, and even I think the team looked to be in the midst of a terrible Super Bowl hangover in Week One. That being said, the Jets looked to be absolutely inept against the Bills last week. This is really a bet on the Jets being terrible, not the 49ers returning to form. Given the state of both offenses, I anticipate an ugly game with many blown opportunities, but the 49ers eking out a win.
I’ll be feeling out other lines as the weekend progresses. There’s a trend of taking road favorites above, which makes sense to me given the waning impact of home field ‘advantage’ in recent years. This should be exacerbated this year, as mostly empty stadiums should further fuel the trend.
Place your bets, set your lineups, and prepare your body. Good luck!
W –GB +2.5 @ MIN(-110) The Packers were in control for the entirety of this Divisional Showdown with Aaron Rodgers passing for four touchdowns, and the final score of 43-34 covers up a game that was far less competitive than the final result. Both of these teams look like they’ll be able to score, and both defenses got gassed late in the game.
L –DET -2.5 @ CHI (-110) The ejection of Jamie Collins in the first half was a bad omen for the outcome of the game. I consider this loss a “bad beat” with the Lions leading the way until late in the game. Even then, rookie DeAndre Swift had the perfect pass to him in the end zone, but failed to secure the ball costing the Lions the game and the cover. I don’t buy the Bears late game surge, and once Kenny Golladay is back I believe the Lions Offense will come roaring back.
L – TB +3.5 @ NO (-115) After the first touchdown drive everything went wrong for the Buccaneers, getting outclassed by the Saints who clearly knew how to play together. Meanwhile, the offense for Tampa Bay looked inconsistent and it was riddled with sloppy penalties and unforced errors. The Saints appear to be the real deal, but against a weaker opponent I have confidence in the Bucs to cover in the future.
W –TB @ NO Over 49.5 (-110) Both teams started the game off strong and opportune Special Teams lapses and a pick six led to quick scoring for the Saints in the second half that quickly sealed this bet despite the game itself being less than competitive. I like both of these teams’ ability to score in bunches, and will be looking for it in the coming weeks.
W – LAS @ CAR Over 48 (-110) This was a last minute bet on Sunday morning (something that I don’t typically advocate for). However, the lack of defensive prowess for either of these teams along with a very manageable total led me to slam the over. Very quickly both teams were able to produce offense on the ground and with massive chunk plays in the pass game.
Including the 1-1 record from the Thursday night game our overall season record stands at 5-3. We are up 2 units.