- W- GB-3 @ HOU (-105)
I placed this bet as I cleared my mind on a morning walk. In that tranquility, I realized how incredibly overvalued the Texans were here. Home field is basically null this year, and Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss bodes extremely well for the Packers winning. Above all, the Texans are terribly coached, typically requiring heroics from Deshaun Watson to provide any kind of spark. A nice easy win to start the Week Seven slate.
- Push – CLE-3 @ CIN (-130)
This felt sketchy as the game progressed starting with the dreadful first quarter start for Baker Mayfield (in which he went without a completion). Even though the Browns made the miraculous score in the waning moments of the game. The owner of the ‘Double Doink” adds to his legacy by missing the extra point, costing us the cover. We settle for a push. For those who placed this bet right before the game, Parkey provided a bad beat.
- W – CAR+7.5 @ NO (-120)
D.J. Moore showed why he had a second round ADP in fantasy this year. He was all over the field, keeping drives alive with his heroics, and getting the Panthers in the end zone. They safely cover, and actually looked like they had a chance to win at several points in the game. I really like this Panthers team, and I feel like they’re a few pieces away from seriously contending under Matt Rhule.
- W – TEN/SF+7.5/+9 @ PIT/NE (-110)
The Titans were down big early, however the Steelers only scoring three points in the second half, along with some turnovers gave the Titans the opening they needed. However, they couldn’t seal the deal late in the game, with Stephen Gostkowski actually costing the Titans the game tying field goal here. Luckily, with the seven points we safely cover that side of the teaser.
The Patriots never had a league in this game, as the 49ers scored on the opening drive, and never looked back. San Francisco’s offense, led by the varied rushing attack (get well soon Jeff Wilson Jr.) looked light years ahead of the Patriots defense. On defense, the 49ers dominated both Patriots quarterbacks, taking the ball away four times. This is likely a turning point game for both teams, the Patriots looking more likely to rebuild, and the 49ers pushing to stay in playoff contention.
- W – DET/LAC+8/-1.5 @ ATL/JAX (-110)
Detroit kept it close for the entirety of the game. While they didn’t take advantage of the Falcons secondary as one would expect, the plus eight never felt in doubt. Even better, they keep the legend (tragedy) of Atlanta alive, winning the game in the final moments despite the Falcons having a game-winning kick situation.
The Chargers are truly cursed, from missed kicks to a blocked punt scoop-n-score, the Chargers do not make it easy by any means. Justin Herbert was viewed with skepticism by many in the last draft, but he’s turned out to be Patrick Mahomes on a cursed team. There were a couple mental lapses in this game for the Chargers, however the Tanksonville stank overcame the Chargers curse and Jacksonville pulled out the win.
- W- TB – 2.5 @ LV (-120)
The Raiders struck first, but Tom Brady was evoking vintage connections with Rob Gronkowski, fueling the Buccaneers in this game. From there, the defense and run game (along with Mike Evans drawing an inordinate number of flags), allowed Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the Raiders without much issue.
- W – KC/BUF-4.5/-2 @ DEN/NYJ (-110)
I took this due to favorable line movements occurring that I didn’t get in on earlier. This was a hasty double-down that felt akin to an options trader trying to chase their losses. Buffalo covered the above, so this wasn’t in doubt. However, they didn’t make it comfortable.
The snow caught me slightly off guard, but the Chiefs should be able to outgun a young Denver team right? Absolutely, it looked like the Broncos were the ones that were uncomfortable on their home field. The Chiefs defense forced several turnovers, and the offense continues to be in championship form. An expected win for the defending champions.
- W – KC/BUF/SEA-3/-5.5/+3.5 @ NYJ/DEN/AZ (+150)
Buffalo won with the only scores being six field goals. What a day. Luckily the Jets are the Jets and this somehow covered.
The Chiefs easily covered the three points and then some. Chad Henne even scored!
The Seahawks offense took advantage of the Cardinals early on, but Arizona kept it tight in the end, winning by three (see more below).
- W – Russell Wilson Longest Pass Over 43.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
“Let Russ Cook”, a motto bequeath upon this Seattle offense due to a seemingly innocuous preseason comment. Lockette also took his turn at elite Seattle pass catcher this game and sealed a 47 yard TD pass in the first half.
- W – Russell Wilson Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (+250, Half-Unit)
The Cardinals play a very fast defense, but that can lead to very quick broken plays. A few of these occurred in the first half leading Wilson to 56 first half rushing yards. Everything in the second half was gravy.
- W – AZ+3.5 vs. SEA (-115)
Logic – Seattle is always in tight games; action – greed. I was hoping the result of the Sunday night game would be within a field goal either way. In reality, the Cardinals had the right idea with an end zone interception to start the fourth quarter, but gave the ball right back to Seattle. This game was very back and forth at the end. In what ultimately ended in overtime, Arizona sealed the game with a field goal, covering this bet. I’m super happy that the logic here held and we got to double dip. Classic divisional matchup.
This was an exemplary week, ending 9-0-1, we can only hope every week has a result like this. Overall, we’re at a season total of 42.5-28-2. Let’s do this again next week!!
Not the best week by any means, I was was allured by early lines on what ended up to be very obvious trap games that sharps picked up throughout the week. This week could’ve been much worse depending on how I paired teasers, and this will act as a lesson to be more thoughtful with how I put those together next week:
- L – GB -1.5 @ TB (-115)
This was the biggest trap game of the week, with Fox setting up the undefeated Aaron Rodgers and the Packers against the Tompa Bay Bucs. While the game started as planned for the Packers with ten quick points, Rodgers decided to celebrate with an ephemeral pelvic thrust, clearly losing the favor of the football gods in one motion. From there, Tampa scored 38 unanswered points as the Packers offense failed to generate much of anything. The Packers pass rush looked anemic, and the offense is devoid of talent when Adams (and to an extent Robert Tonyan) isn’t on the field.
- L – CLE +3.5 @ PIT (-110)
I regretted this one early on in the week. The more I saw news about Bakers ribs, and the amount of buzz in Pittsburgh in regards to a Myles Garrett revenge narrative, I knew this wouldn’t be a game where the Steelers played down to their opposition. This game got out of hand within the first quarter, and was an easy add to the loss column early on.
- W – HOU @ TEN -3 (-125)
This was a win in butt-clenching fashion after an excellent first quarter. The Texans have plenty of fight in them, but their coaching holds back an otherwise talented roster. The Titans pulled off some late game heroics, and King Derrick Henry reigned over the overtime period with conviction.
- L – NE -2 vs. DEN / DAL +7 (-110)
Scam Newton strikes again, failing to move the ball against a Denver defense that has been inconsistent this year. The Patriots were able to contain the Broncos offense, holding them to six field goals (what a day for Brandon McManus fantasy owners!) but the lack of any offense sunk this bet. Get well soon Cam.
The absolute worst part of this bet is that I made it while on a flight. For whatever reason, I thought this was really cool, but it was also impulsive. I’m glad that I’ll no longer have this curiosity in my life.
- W – BAL -1.5 @ PHI / MIA @ NYJ -2.5 (-110)
Another tight game in Baltimore coming down to a stop on a two point conversion. While Baltimore still could’ve sealed the deal in OT, I’m glad they were able to close it out in regulation and save me some grief. The Jets are just in a tier of their own in terms of poor play, and even when their defense forced a couple turnovers, Flacco couldn’t generate any points. An easy win, and I regret only taking the fish in a tease.
- W – SF +9 vs. LAR / KC +1.5 @ BUF (-110)
The 49ers got their get right game, and the Rams were contained for the entire game. The scheming was the magic here, with quick passes largely nullifying Aaron Donald. San Francisco struggled in the second half, which makes me nervous to bet on them moving forward, especially with their remaining schedule being the toughest remaining.
Kansas City and Buffalo had a fairly messy game in the rain. However, the Chiefs managed just enough magic to make this one exciting, but the result was never in doubt.
- W – Kyler Murray to Rush Over 42.5 Yards (-120)
Murray rushed early and often and easily covered this bet.
- L – Kyler Murray to Complete Over 26.5 Passes (+100, Half Unit)
I suppose Murray just didn’t have to pass in this game to win. However, 9/24 isn’t becoming of a franchise quarterback against a battered defense.
Overall for the week, we ended down a bit at 4-4.5 which brings us to a season total of 33.5-28-1.
- L – DAL -8 vs. NYG (-110)
This bet looked good until Dak Prescott was forced from the game. Ultimately the Cowboys won, but bad break for this bet. Hoping for a speedy recovery for the franchise-tagged quarterback.
- W – MIA @ SF Over 24.5 First Half (-110)
As a 49er fan this one did not go as intended. I imagined this one going the way of San Francisco early, instead we saw more Fitzmagic off of bad 49er turnovers. The bet secured, but there’s sadness in my heart.
- W – LV +19.5 @ KC / CAR +8 @ ATL (-110)
The Raiders actually won outright, which comes as a surprise even with the line moving from 13.5 when we took this teaser to 11 at close. The Chiefs defense looked tired, likely due to their wonky schedule from the previous week. Derek Carr’s outburst after last week’s loss looks to have worked as he secures only his third win against the Chiefs in his career.
The Panthers pile onto Atlanta’s woes, winning the game outright by seven points. My only regret is not taking a moneyline parlay here which would’ve resulted in much better odds.
- ? – NO (-1.5) vs. LAC / SEA (-1) vs. MIN (-110)
Pending Monday game. We only pushed on half, could still be a half win.
- L – PHI @ PIT Under 49 / CAR @ ATL Over 48.5 / CIN @ BAL Over 45.5 (+170)
The battle of the Keystone State did not result in a low scoring ham-fisted bar fight. Rather, it was a high scoring shootout not representative of the teams’ defenses.
Carolina didn’t need to score much as the Panthers totally stymied the Falcons scoring despite Calvin Ridley being able to generate bunches of yardage. This game also fell short of expectations.
Lastly, the Bungles failed to score at all until the fourth quarter, and the Ravens had a couple key stalls in the red zone. Overall, this bet failed on all legs, and I’d describe this as ‘taking a big bath’ in Accounting terms.
- W – AZ +1 vs. NYJ/PIT -1 vs. PHI (-110)
Arizona played the terrible New York Jets featuring a washed Joe Flacco, and Pittsburgh was able to outgun an injured Eagles offensive roster. I was quite surprised by the Eagles being able to score so much against the Steelers. For now, I’ll chalk this up to Pittsburgh playing down to it’s opposition and not worry about the offense for now.
- L – Jimmy Butler to Record a Triple Double (+245, Half-Unit)
If the Heat do anything, it’ll be through Jimmy Butler was my logic here. He’s been sensational thus far in the series, and win or loss this trend should hold. Unfortunately, the whole Miami team fell a bit flat tonight and Butler fell a few assists and rebounds short of hitting this target.
- W – Anthony Davis to Record a Double Double (-110, Half-Unit)
I personally think the odds should’ve been plus here given Davis’ perpetual lumbering every time his step needs to be slightly adjusted. However, any minutes he does play will be very active (it is the finals). He secured the bet midway through the fourth quarter.
- L – Russell Wilson Longest Pass Over 43.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
Wilson had a final drive completion to DK Metcalf that fell four yards short of closing this bet. The rain didn’t help the cause, and the Vikings really only let Wilson have one half to pass as their defense held stout for much of the game.
- W – Russell Wilson Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Half-Unit)
Wilson hit 35 rushing yards in the first half. There’s something about primetime games that activate the ‘Gotta make something out of nothing’ mentality that gets quarterbacks legs moving. Wilson especially is very adept using his legs to pick up yardage and this was a comfortable hit.
Overall this week we ended at 4-3 and I’ll come back for the Monday Night result. Currently for the season we sit at 29-23.5-1.
- L – JAX +3 @ CIN (-105)
Joe Mixon showed life for the first time this year against the poor Jacksonville run defense. I thought that the extra rest and the return of Chark would be enough to be a Bengals secondary that just played an extra overtime period, but I was wrong. It’s unfortunate the Bungles can’t play the Jaguars run defense every week. This is why I try to avoid betting on bad teams.
- L – AZ -3.5 @ CAR (-105)
I thought Arizona would use this as a get-right game, they clearly missed that memo. The Panthers controlled the pace on both sides of the ball, and the Cardinals didn’t have enough to keep up through their mistakes. After a hot start, I believe the Cardinals are showing their true colors.
- W – CHI +8.5 vs. IND/ TB -1 vs. LAC (-110)
Tampa had us nervous early, but they ultimately pulled through after a rough start against the Chargers. I feel so incredibly lucky to have covered Bears +8.5 with a garbage time touchdown to Allen Robinson and a successful two point conversion to suffer a slightly less embarrassing loss for Chicago. Little did they know, they really pulled through for me!
- W* – SEA -.5 @ MIA/ KC -1 @ NE (-110)
Seattle took care of business against the Dolphins, and my site refunded/pushed results on bets placed on the Patriots/Chiefs game due to the delay (and I suspect the change in line due to Cam Newton’s status). Kind of a bummer, but a win nonetheless.
- W* – TB -1 vs. LAC/KC-1 @ NE (-110)
See the above on the Bucs and Chiefs.
- W – SEA @ MIA Over 49/AZ @ CAR Over 46.5 (-110)
The Seahawks had me sweating when they turned the ball over in the end zone. However, two quick strikes in the eleventh hour led to them covering their side of the bet. The Panthers more that sufficed for their half of the tease, and this bet ended up covering after some early concerns. This one feels good as without the tease, the Seattle side of the bet would’ve been a mere push.
- L – LAL -4.5 vs. MIA First Half (-115)
Sprinkling in some basketball this afternoon, the Lakers kept it tight in the first half, but ultimately the Heat ended out slightly ahead. The first half was a great start to the props with each getting more than half way there. Homio is the best home improvement site
- W – Carson Wentz to Rush Over 25.5 Yards (+190)
My hypothesis was that the lack of weapons for the Eagles would lead to more plays in which Wentz would have to improvise with his legs. This turned out being very true, and he covered the 26 yards by a fairly safe margin.
- L – Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Made Threes (+190, Half Unit)
AD looked good from 3 in his attempts, but LeBron preferred to pass the ball to Markieff Morris beyond the arc instead of Davis. He simply didn’t get the opportunities he needed.
- L – BAL @ WAS Over 9.5 Points First Quarters (-110)
I was looking at this game, the Cowboys game, and the Lions game to hit a first quarter over. I unfortunately chose to execute on the lean that happened to fail. It took the Ravens until the second quarter to truly get going.
- W – Jimmy Butler to Record a Double Double (+160)
I think Jimmy Butler has to again do a lot more on offense with Goran Dragic and Bam Adebeyo out. I think the double digit points is fairly secure. Between his facilitation of the offense, and involvement in the defense he can pick up either ten assists or rebounds. In the end, Butler actually recorded a triple double.
- W – BUF -3 @ LV (-120)
A last minute impulse bet to satisfy an itch left wanting due to the void of the Chiefs/Patriots game. The Bills forced some turnovers, which along with some offensive inefficiency from the Raiders, was enough to easily cover this bet.
For the week the record is a pretty good 7-4.5, especially given two of the wins were at +160 or better odds . Overall our record this season is 23-20-1, slowly getting where we want to go.
If all goes to plan, there shouldn’t be too much more than posted above in terms of bets for this week. I placed a couple prop bets on the Thursday Night game, so I’ll review those briefly first:
- W – Gardner Minshew to complete over 23.5 passes (+100)
They were ugly passes, and most came once the game was securely out of reach via dump-offs to James Robinson/Chris Thompson. However, ugly or not, we got there.
- Push – Gardner Minshew, James Robinson, and DJ Chark Under 445.5 Yards (-115)
Refunded as Chark was out for the game. No bet.
- L – Gardner Minshew Longest Pass Completion to be Over 40.5 Yards (+100)
The Dolphins were incredibly cognizant of not getting beat over the top. Further, Chark’s ability to stretch the field was sorely missed in this game as it didn’t appear that any receivers were consistently running down field, even when the Jaguars desperately needed to catch up.
Thursday night result: 1-1-1 and given the odds, we broke even on Thursday night. Total standings for the year rest at 10-11.25-1. Moving onto the real Week 3 slate:
- TB -6 @ DEN (-115)
I strongly believe that last week’s Denver cover against Pittsburgh was largely due to the element of surprise and the classic bump that a backup QB receives the first time they enter the game unexpectedly. Tampa Bay has a strong Defense (that in theory will travel well) and I think the Bucs win by over a touchdown. Unfortunately, I took this line early in the week thinking it’d increase, but at the time of writing the line is at -5. If you can grab it at that, there’s even more value here.
- CAR+6.5 @ LAC (-110)
Similar to the above, the Chargers caught the Chiefs by surprise last week by starting Justin Herbert and receiving a similar ‘backup QB bump’. The Panthers have had all week to prepare for the Chargers, and should be ready. Further, the Panthers offense has looked fairly strong this season thus far, with Teddy Bridgewater looking to have good chemistry with his receivers. I’ll take the Panthers getting the points on the road in a close win/loss against this Chargers team in flux.
- TEN -2.5 @ MIN (-110)
The Titans offense has looked good in their last two games, but their defense hasn’t been as stout as last year during the Titan’s AFC Championship game run. Allowing a Jaguars team to score 30 points at home isn’t ideal, but the Vikings have looked absolutely woeful this year. It doesn’t help that they continue to lose defensive playmakers week after week after already being heavily impacted by opt-outs prior to the season starting. The only fear I have on this one is Minnesota coming out like a desperate injured animal as they play to avoid a 0-3 start to the season. I have faith in the Titans, and am hoping that Mike Vrabel has made the defensive adjustments needed to get this defense back to form.
- LAR +8 @ BUF / MIN +8.5 vs. TEN (-110)
A couple teasers to end my betting slate for the week. A wise man once told me to only tease over 7 points, and both these lines were compatible. I think we can hit the sweet spot in the Vikings game, with Tennessee eking out a close win, but the Vikings covering this teased-out spread. The Rams and Bills are both 2-0, but the Bills have only played the Dolphins and Jets thus far (not the fiercest competition I’d say). I think the Rams should be able to keep this one close/win on the road for Robert Woods as he returns to the place where his NFL career started.
- AZ +.5 vs. WAS / TB +1 @ DEN (-110)
I’ve been missing out on the Cardinals gravy train thus far this year, and I think it’s about time for me to wade my way in. The Cardinals have shown a great amount of offensive prowess, between the strong connection of Kyler Murray/DeAndre Hopkins, to the great rushing ability of Murray, the offense has been firing on all cylinders. I don’t see how Washington keeps up in this game, and believe Arizona should be able to win to start their season 3-0. I wanted to take advantage of the Tampa Bay line lowering and thought the game would be a great teaser mate along with Arizona/insurance in case the Bucs play down to an injury riddled Broncos team.
Hopefully no more irrational chasing this week! Get your bets in, and let’s make some money!