BET-A-PALOOZA sponsored by several inebriated Zoom calls. Oh the Holidays. The record for this week has blown up, but the luls/memories are worth the sting.
- W – BKN -7 @ GSW (-110)
- L – LAL-2.5 vs. LAC (-110)
- W – BYU-6 @ UCF (-115)
- W – WAS +7.5 @ PHI (-110)
- L – MIA -4.5 @ ORL (-110)
- L – MIL -3.5 @ BOS (-110)
- L – SAC @ DEN U226.5 (-110)
- W – UTA +.5 First Quarter @ POR (+100)
- L – DAL +1 @ PHX (-110)
- W – NO @ MIA U223.5 (-110, Half-Unit)
- L – GSW @ MIL U232 (-110, Half-Unit)
- W – BKN @ BOS U227.5 (-110, Half-Unit)
- L – DAL @ LAL U227.5 (-110, Half-Unit)
- L – LAC @ DEN U225.5 (-110, Half-Unit)
- W – BKN -3 @ BOS (-105)
- L – NO -1 vs. MIN / AZ -1 vs. SF (-110)
- W – MIA @ LV O47.5 (-110)
- L – POR -7.5 vs. HOU (-110)
- L – BAL -2.5 2H @ NYG (-125)
Nothing like a hitting the kicker penalty and a fumble on the 3 yard line. Thank you sloppy Ravens second half. I’ll consider this a bad beat.
- L – CLE -1 @ NYJ / IND +8 @ PIT (-110)
- W – PHI @ DAL 1Q Over 9.5 (-125)
I felt like the Eagles and Jalen Hurts could get this alone (and they did). This was hit comfortably about halfway through the first quarter.
- L – MIL -.5 vs. GSW / PHI -.5 @ DAL (-102)
- L – PHI -1.5 @ DAL (-110)
- W – TB -2 vs. DET / CHI -1.5 @ JAX (-110)
- L – CLE -3 @ NYJ / MIA +3.5 @ LV (-120)
- L – IND -1.5 @ PIT (-110)
A very sad second half for the Colts after dominating the first half. Capped off by Phillip Rivers interceptions.
- L – LAR @ SEA O47 (-110)
- W – SEA -1 vs. LAR (-115)
- L – WAS -1 vs. CAR (-110)
- L – Derrick Henry to Rush Over 1.5 TDs (+250)
- L – TEN +3.5 @ GB (-115)
- L – BAL-.5 @ NYG / CLE +.5 @ NYJ KC -.5 vs. ATL (-130)
- L – CLE -3 @ NYJ / BUF -.5 @ NE (-110)
- L – TB -.5 @ DET /AZ -.5 vs. SF /CHI-.5 @ JAX / BUF -.5 @ NE (+192, Half-Unit)
- L – TEN +9.5 @ GB / BUF -1 @ NE (-110)
- L – TEN @ GB U52.5 (-110)
Silly me thinking snow would slow down offenses a bit.
- W- Aaron Jones Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- W – Ryan Tannehill Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Browns loss really anchored a terrible Sunday performance this week. Beyond that, the Colts fall apart and bad live bets cost us plenty this holiday weekend. We’ll have to focus up next week and get back on track. This week: 12 – 23 Overall this season: 108.5-95.5-3.
- W – IND -3 @ HOU (-105)
This one came down to the wire, but the Colts were able to force a turnover late and secure this game. Almost every game came down to the waning moments in the early block, but this one was a quicker resolution. The Colts somehow barely squeak out close wins against teams playing for a high draft pick. The AFC South will be sending the most puzzling of representatives to the playoffs this year.
- W – CLE +6 @ TEN (-110)
Cleveland covered very early, with the entire second half basically being garbage time. I’m usually not on the right side of these bets, so this was nice and refreshing. Baker finally earned those endorsements, and was rewarded with praise and a second half acting as a ball shelf for the Browns’ running backs.
- W – CLE @ TEN Over 24.5 Second Half (-110, Live Bet)
I went from thinking this was a lock with eight minutes remaining in the third quarter, to sweating it out until the doldrums of garbage time with seconds on the clock. Thank you to the Browns to fumbling on a fourth and one when they clearly had dinner, or other thoughts past the blowout game in mind.
- W – LV@ NYJ -1.5 / MIN -3 @ JAX (-120)
A half-win but we’ll count it. That’s why you buy down to three instead of counting on the Vikings to somehow beat a one-win Jags team by more than a field goal. Yeesh, double-digit favorites seems like a far cry from reality in hindsight. The Raiders made it even tighter, but the Jets displaying the most graceful of tanks, waiting until the final seconds to allow the Raiders to reclaim the lead and steal the win.
- W – SEA vs. NYG under 47.5 (-110)
A five point first half had this looking tasty going into halftime. In fact, the five points should’ve been three if it wasn’t for the Giants punting unit. In the second half, the Seahawks failed to produce much of anything, and New York was able to score on an unsuspecting Seahawks unit. This was the exact recipe we needed to secure this bet, and it never really felt in doubt. At this point, betting on Seattle playing ridiculous games is a solid strategy. Throw logic and reason out the window with this Seattle team.
- W – LAR -3 @ AZ (-110)
Other than the Raiders game, this was the clencher of the day. A very back and forth game that started with a poor omen, the busted play for an easy TD for the Cardinals. Kyler Murray is either seeing ghosts, has an injured shoulder, or both, as he basically gave this game away off of his errant passes.
- W – LV @ NYJ -1 / GB -2.5 vs. PHI (-120)
Green bay held up their end of the bargain, beating the Eagles who have lost their grip on the NFC East. The Packers are able to routinely beat up on mediocre/hobbled teams. However, they fail to put teams away. Even worse, they’ve yet to secure a marquee win worthy of true a true Super Bowl contender. If this game really showed anything, it’s that the Eagles need to take a hard look at themselves in the offseason. Hopefully, it’s without Doug Pederson.
- W – LV @ NYJ -1.5 / NE + 8 @ LAC ( -110)
Now I thought that the Patriots would win a close sloppy game due to a decisive coaching edge (and despite a talent disparity). However, this game was a lost cause for the Chargers from the first quarter. The Patriots took control of the game in the first half by taking advantage of every opportunity they were given. In the second half, they clamped down, and won the game outright by a very comfortable margin.
- L – TEN 0 vs. CLE / SEA -4 vs. NYG (-110)
The Titans were nowhere near winning this game. Aside from a .01 percent chance with 13 seconds remaining pre-kickoff. The Titans are certainly paper tigers in my view with regards to AFC contention. We took a big bath here to use accounting terms, as the Seahawks lost outright. The good news is we isolated the losing to this one bet.
- W – Patrick Mahomes Longest Pass to be Over 42.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
Divisional games are always a little off, but this one started especially off, with the Broncos going into halftime with a lead. The Chiefs weren’t getting too many long looks, and a terrible holding call robbed what would’ve been a Tyreek Hill backflip sealing touchdown catch over the 42.5 yards. After that point, the game clock pushed the Chiefs towards a Patriots-esque control style offense. Accurate throws and ball control with a lead at this stage in the game kept the Chiefs in the picture for a playoff bye. However, it cost us this bet.
- W – Patrick Mahomes Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-130, Half-Unit)
This one hit early in the first half as the Chiefs failing to find their offensive footing resulted in some improvised rushing yards for Mahomes.
- ? – GB -2.5 vs. PHI / BUF +7 @ SF (-110)
Green Bay held up their end of the bargain. We’ll see if Buffalo takes the 49ers seriously enough to cover this game, and our bet.
This puts as at 8.5-1.5 for the week, with one more bet pending. Overall for the year, we’re at 78.5-61-2.
- L – AZ @ NE Over 49.5 Points (-110)
This didn’t look good in the first half with Scam Newton and his 13.0 QB rating. However, the Pats managed some offense in the second half. The defense continued to contain the Cardinals, and this was a very apparent loss from the third quarter onward.
- L – AZ -1 @ NE (-110)
This line moved down from -2.5 when I pounced. Unfortunately, the sharp action was right taking the Pats here. The Pats made this an ugly game, stifling the typically fast Cardinals offense. This was the game script they needed to win, and they executed their plan to perfection.
- L – AZ -.5 @ NE Second Half (-110)
Instead of trusting my eyes, seeing the Cardinals being stopped by the Pats, I fooled myself into thinking the Cardinals offense would turn in on in the second half. That’s tough with a young quarterback traveling east against a well-coached New England team. The wise money would’ve been to hedge on New England. A silly double-down loss.
- W – CAR +3.5 @ MIN (-110)
Looked bleak in the first half for the Teddy-Two-Glove revenge game. Then two fumble recoveries for touchdowns and Dalvin Cook going down significantly changed the geometry of this game. The Vikings ultimately won the game through a last minute TD and a missed Panthers field goal. A rough day for Joey Slye, missing the game winning field goal and having a kick blocked earlier in the game as well.
- L – LV -3 @ ATL (-115)
Similar to the Falcons win over the 49ers last year, they won this game in shocking fashion against a surging Las Vegas team. The Falcons shooting themselves in the foot, but getting a quality win over a Raiders team in the thick of the playoff race.
- L- LV @ ATL Over 53.5 Points (-110)
This one is rough. A hot Vegas offense only scoring six points against a below average Falcons defense. They had chances, even one touchdown somewhere in the game would’ve closed this bet. Instead, the Falcons steal a pointless game and cost us a a bet.
- W – NYG -.5 @ CIN / BUF -.5 vs. LAC (-104)
The New York State teaser hits, with both teams giving their opponent a multitude of chances to comeback. In a hilarious series of events, there were several turnovers in near-consecutive plays between the Chargers and Bills. However, the better team ultimately closed the game due to more poor play calling and clock management from Anthony Lynn. The Giants finally unlocked Evan Engram (although he did fumble), and managed to eke out a win despite Daniel Jones exiting the game early. A nice win after the bevy of losses from the Patriots game.
- W – TEN @ IND Over 46.5 Points / NO -.5 @ DEN (-110)
The Colts and Titans just about blew by their total in the first half. The Colts scored a couple quick strikes, but all the while allowed Derrick Henry and the Titans offense to steamroll over them. In the second half, the Tennessee defense understandably laid back a bit, leading to the Colts adding some garbage time points. This divisional matchup ended at an astounding 71 point total.
The Saints/Broncos game started in startlingly anemic fashion, however by the third quarter the Saints firmly held control of the game. Turns out, it’s incredibly difficult to win a NFL game without a quarterback. Shoutout to contemplative morning walks that led to placing this teaser before the Saints line exploded.
- L – CLE -1 @ JAX / LAR -.5 vs. SF (-110)
Cleveland really made this one close. Baker Mayfield made this game as exciting as possible. To the Jaguars, bravo, the graceful tank for Trevor season continues. A wildly entertaining game that still ends in the best result for the cursed Jaguars franchise.
Divisional wonkiness abound in this game. The 49ers controlled the first half, but then the Rams scored 17 unanswered points. Ultimately, a sloppy late quarter drive from the Rams cost them the game. The 49ers sweep the season series against the Rams :’D. As a San Francisco fan I’m pleased, but a lose taken on this bet. The Rams are truly a wild
- W – CLE 0 @ JAX / GB -2.5 vs. CHI (-110)
See above on Cleveland, for a bit, I was actually thinking I would need the tie to help push this bet. However, the Browns held out just long enough.
Green Bay won comfortably due in large part to the poor performance of Mitch Turbisky. The Bears are truly a quarterback away from truly contending. Until then, their defense will watch helplessly as their quarterback sinks any hopes the team had to make a playoff run.
- W – MIA -1 @ NYJ / GB -2.5 vs. CHI (-110)
Miami had some early turnovers, but they went mostly unpunished. Key stops on fourth down kept this game in the control of the fish. The Jets hardly put up a fight (unlike the graceful tank exemplified by the Jaguars). An easy cover for the first leg of this bet.
The Packers held up their end, beating an imbalanced team with a poor quarterback handily.
- ? – MIA -.5 @ NYJ / SEA +.5 @ PHI (-110)
See above for conversation on the largely boring and uncompetitive Dolphins game. Slight line variation due to when the bets were placed. This one is pending the result of the Monday Night game.
On the day we are 5-6. A silly halftime bet is the regret of the week. That’s good for 68-59.5-2 on the season and we’re pending one more for this week. We’ve been incredibly sloppy the last few weeks, doing no better than going even. Here’s hoping to turning things around in Week 13.
To kick things off, some Thursday night results:
- W – SEA-3 vs. AZ (-110)
- L – Russell Wilson to rush for Over 50.5 Yards (+275, Half-Unit)
- W – Russell Wilson to rush for Over 31.5 Yards (-115, Half-Unit)
Overall, the game went about as predictably as a divisional Thursday night game would go. Given this game involved the Seahawks, of course it took a fourth quarter safety to hit the cover.
The Cardinals were definitely cognizant of Wilson scrambles as it felt like they either had a spy or hyper aware linebackers for the majority of the night. I felt good about the number of attempts the Seattle signal caller received, but he wasn’t able to break through on a couple of the rushes for larger gains required to hit the 51 yards. Luckily, he safely hit 32 yards rushing which more than paid for both bets.
This takes our season record to 58-47.5-2, onto the main slate:
- L – NE -2 @ HOU (-110)
Kicking Sunday off with a few straight spreads. For the most part, we got the better of the lines by betting early. However, there was a moment on Sunday where this game was Pats -1/-1.5. Unfortunately, the Pats defense let up too many chunk plays. The offense couldn’t keep up.
- L – ATL +5 @ NO (-110)
Atlanta started out promising, but the defense fell for every Taysom Hill gimmick. Emmanuel Sanders bailed his quarterback out several time, truly paying for himself in one game.
- W – CLE -3 vs. PHI (+100)
A messy gross game. Cleveland has the edge in these as they’re used to them by now. Having two of the top fiver rushers in the league (in my opinion) really helps.
- W – GB @ IND Over 52 (-110)
A shootout, as predicted! What I didn’t was predict was this ineptitude from the Green Bay offense in the second half.
- L – MIA @ DEN Over 46 (-110)
There was a massive glimmer of hope when Fitzmagic orchestrated a drive into the red zone. However, the clock struck midnight and he threw a pick in his hot and cold fashion. I was between this game and the Chargers game for a high scoring shootout, and I feel for the Denver trap again. Never again.
- W – LAC -3 @ NYJ / PIT-4 @ JAX (-110)
This was the “who messes this up?” / “too bad to win?” teaser. This week, all went to plan, including the Steelers playing down to their opponents.
- L – PIT -.5 @ JAX / MIA -.5 @ DEN (-125)
Miami failed to cover.
- W – GB +7.5 @ IND / KC -1.5 @ LV (-110)
The Chiefs made it quite exciting, actually trailing for much of the second half with a stagnating offense. When it counted, they marched down the field in the final two minutes and hit on a crucial turnover. A magnificent and exciting cover!
- L – Patrick Mahomes Longest Pass Over 40.5 (+100)
There were only a few attempts over 20 yards tonight for Mahomes, and unfortunately none of them hit. It was death by a million cuts and the run game tonight.
On the week we are an undesirable 4-5 (add) for 62-52.5-2 on the year.
- W – TB -.5 @ CAR / PIT -1 vs. CIN (-110)
A very clean hit with both games feeling secure for the vast majority. Good teams beat bad teams, it’s as simple as that.
- L – DEN @ LV Over 52 (-110)
I think there were at least four red zone/near red zone turnovers in this game. Very sloppy, with about near the minimum number of expected points coming out here.
- W – SEA +8 @ LAR / BUF+7.5 @ AZ (-110)
A thriller in Arizona, but we were okay both ways. Seattle luckily went for the field goal first, and safely carried us to winning this bet.
- W – MIA -0.5 vs. LAC (-120)
The Dolphins are the real deal. The Chargers cannot keep it together for an entire game, and I think will fall apart for the rest of the season.
- L – SF -0.5 @ NO (+335, Half-Unit)
What started out so promising was stifled by bad penalties and sloppiness on special teams. What could’ve been…
- L – CLE+2 @ HOU / LAC+7.5 @ MIA (-110)
Losing by half a point hurts, but there wasn’t a missed field goal or kick here, it was simply the Chargers not being able to do enough. The Browns game was mostly boring, but they won against a struggling Texans team.
- L – BAL @ NE First Quarter Over 7.5 (+100)
A silly impulse bet, I should’ve known better. This Pats offense cannot score, and the Ravens chew clock on offense by design.
- L – IND +8 @ TEN / BAL -1 @ NE (-110)
Dang it Baltimore.
- L – Lamar Jackson to Score a Rushing Touchdown (+140, Half-Unit)
For this week we ended 3-4 getting us to 56.5-47-2 on the year.