I’m going on bit of a vacation this week, so no full writeup. However, I didn’t want to leave y’all completely hanging so see above for my picks. I’ll aim to review them on Monday. We do have one bet to review though:
W – NO (-1.5) vs. LAC / SEA (-1) vs. MIN (-110)
This one did not look promising. With Seattle barely pulling out a win, combined with our subpar line, led us to a push on half of this teaser. New Orleans looked to be on the road to handing a rookie QB on a one-win-team a victory on Monday night. Luckily, the curse of the Chargers bore it’s ugly head and they missed a game-winning field goal in regulation. From there, the Saints were able to win the coin-toss and march down field against an exhausted Chargers defense. A great half-win to end Week Five.
Overall record: 29.5-23.5-1
I went ahead and sprinkled a bit on Game Five of the NBA Finals on Friday afternoon in a moment of weakness. Unfortunately, the Lakers weren’t able to close out the series tonight, but bets mostly ended in our favor:
- W – Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Successful Three-Point Shots (+160, Half Unit)
AD hit his first two, and wasn’t able to connect again from beyond the arc for the rest of the game. Any additional make could’ve been the difference maker in what was a very close Lakers loss. Dang.
- W – LeBron James Over 2.5 Successful Three-Point Shots (+140, Half Unit)
The King caught fire from range in Game Five of the finals making six three-pointers, often at crucial moments when it looked like the Heat were about to take a significant lead. This bet was comfortably hit well before the end of the game.
- W – Danny Green Over 1.5 Successful Three-Point Shots (+100)
This was the first time since game one where Green recorded more than a lone three-point shot. He was wide open in the closing moments of the game, and bricked the Finals-winning shot on the front of the rim. For a guy who calls himself “Deadshot” he fell flat when his team needed him the most. One made shot, and the cruel vitriol shown towards Green from the Lakers fanbase for the entirety of the Playoffs would’ve been forgiven. Not in this timeline unfortunately.
- L – LeBron James to Record a Triple Double (+250, Half Unit)
LeBron really took the scoring reigns this game. He safely cleared the bar for rebounds, but as always his passes too often resulted in shots off the mark from the likes of Danny Green and a bench unit who only managed to score one basket from range the entire game.
Including this small sample of 1.5-.5 we’re at 25-20.5-1 overall this year.
I’m praying for a Game Six Lakers win on Sunday. To distract from that series, Week Five of the NFL is upon us. To compensate for a COVID-reduced slate we got real teasy with it this week:
- DAL -8 vs. NYG (-110)
Much to my chagrin, this line moved a half point against our favor mere minutes after I placed this bet. I still think the Cowboys will be able to handily beat a Giants team who wasn’t able to handle a backup quarterback leading a heavily damaged 49ers team two weeks ago. I don’t see how the Giants will be able to keep up with this Cowboys offense. To put it in perspective, the most the Giants have scored in a game this season has been 16 points. Conversely, the least the Cowboys have scored this year in a contest has been 17 in week one, averaging 35 points a game since then.
- MIA @ SF Over 24.5 First Half (-110)
Between Jimmy Garoppolo being reunited with his full offensive arsenal, and a Miami team with an inconsistent defense and streaky offense, I think this total will be safely hit. The Dolphins should be able to gain enough yardage and hit one broken play for ten points. While I think the 49ers will put together two creative touchdowns and a field goal in the first half.
- LV +19.5 @ KC / CAR +8 @ ATL (-110)
I don’t think the Raiders are that bad, with an offense that has scored a low of 20 points this season (against a Bill Belichick coached defense no less). The Chiefs are definitely one of the most potent offenses in the league, but getting in on this line early gave me the confidence that the vast spread should allow for heavy backdoor cover potential at the very least.
Carolina is at the very least an average team, with an offense that has shown good chemistry. This is against a Falcons team that isn’t expecting Julio Jones to play, and has a decimated secondary filled with third-stringers playing starting roles. The agile Panthers receivers should have a good day in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
- NO (-1.5) vs. LAC / SEA (-1) vs. MIN (-110)
The Chargers gave Tampa Bay a scare last week before ultimately losing by a touchdown. I think that New Orleans is a more talented team, with a great deal more familiarity with each other than the upstart Chargers. Justin Herbert has shown flashes of brilliance, but ultimately I think the Saints win by ten or more.
Seattle has a knack for allowing their outmatched opponents to stay in games until the very end. This leaky Seahawks defense doesn’t help that trend, but Kirk Cousins in primetime and an even worse Vikings defense has me favoring the birds to simply win outright.
- PHI @ PIT Under 49 / CAR @ ATL Over 48.5 / CIN @ BAL Over 45.5 (+170)
A little beyond what I like to place, with a three-leg teaser, but I feel confident in each of these picks.
The battle of Pennsylvania features two good defenses, an offense with little to no receiving talent, and a Steelers team that often plays down to their opponents. I see this being a low-scoring grind, with a lot of long drives.
Carolina’s game last week against a modest Cardinals team hit over 50 points. This week the Panthers are playing an even more potent offense, with an even worse defense in the Falcons. I see this one being a shootout due to the tendencies of this Atlanta team.
Baltimore boasts an amazing offense that bullies bad teams. The Bungles have managed to create miraculous scores, especially late in the game. I expect the Ravens to score between 35 to 40 points, and hope that Cincinnati can manage a few scores to seal this over.
Okay, after my talk of discipline I may have been less than sober for many of the bets we’re riding with this weekend. In a way, they each make sense in a vacuum. However, as a whole, there’s a lot of over-indexing, and getting in on bad lines. In any case, here we go:
- JAX +3 @ CIN (-105)
The Jaguars are coming into this with ten days of rest, the Bungles coming in after playing an entire overtime against the Eagles. Further, the Jaguars were getting three points. Overall, both teams are fairly poor quality, and both show flashes of talent. However, I’ll take the rest and the points here.
- AZ -3.5 @ CAR (-105)
I think the Cardinals and Kyler Murray are good. Last week was an aberration and Murray won’t be that sloppy again. While a few key cogs on offense, including DeAndre Hopkins are questionable for Sunday’s game. I have faith that Kliff Kingsbury has some tricks up his sleeve that will likely score some cheap points against a permeable Panthers Defense.
- CHI +8.5 vs. IND/ TB -1 vs. LAC (-110)
I don’t know where my mind went on this one. I can see myself thinking “Tampa Bay can’t lose to the Chargers, they’re the best team in the NFC South”, and I can stand by that. In regards to Chicago… I guess I really want Allen Robinson to be successful. I hope they can cover against a Colts team that has looked unbeatable at points this season.
- SEA -.5 @ MIA/ KC -1 @ NE (-110)
Another “who messes this up?” type of bet. I feel like these teasers always burn one unexpected way. It’s too obvious. The Kansas City/New England game looks to be postponed at least a couple days, with Cam Newton himself testing positive. If the game is played only a few days after originally scheduled, it’ll be Jarett Stidham playing for New England. At -1 that should be an incredibly easy cover for the Chiefs.
- TB -1 vs. LAC/KC-1 @ NE (-110)
A combination of two bets above. Let’s see who messes this up.
- SEA @ MIA Over 49/AZ @ CAR Over 46.5 (-110)
I didn’t take a total bet last week after leaning on several totals in my personal review of the board. This week, I decided to take the plunge on two games that I thought looked primed for a shootout. The Cardinals injuries loom large, but the leaky defenses all around pushed me over the edge.
- LAL -4.5 vs. MIA First Half (-115)
A last minute bet on the Lakers to win the first half by 5 or more points.
- Carson Wentz to Rush Over 25.5 Yards (+190)
I have an irrational love for longest reception and rushing yardage bets. The Eagles are depleted in regards to offensive skill position players, and so is the 49ers D-Line. Between those two factors, I see Wentz running a handful of times tonight, hopefully eclipsing 26 yards.
- Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Made Threes (+190, Half Unit)
AD looks better from outside than Danny Green and KCP. I’ll take the odds.
- BAL @ WAS Over 9.5 Points First Quarters (-110)
I think Baltimore comes out angry after last week’s result against the Chiefs. Further, this is almost a home game for the Ravens as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they score all ten points in the first quarter themselves.
I’m still getting over the De’Andre Swift drop, but Week Two is here and it’s time to post some bets. I’ve taken some learnings from Week One to hopefully hone in on some wins this Sunday:
- KC -8.5 @ LAC (-110)
Last week Kansas City showed that they were firing on all cylinders, from the Offense looking as potent as their Super Bowl run, and the defense clamping down on the Houston Offense until letting up in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs only needing 1.5 more points to cover against the Chargers (basically the Chiefs second home field) feels like it should be an easy cover. Especially, after the Chargers were unable to get any prolonged offense going against the woeful Bungles last week.
- BAL -7 @ HOU (-105)
Similar to the above, Baltimore didn’t look to lose a step from 2019. Further, defenses did not get the expected time to prepare for Lamar Jackson’s dynamic style of play, so he’s still catching folks as flat-footed as last season. The Houston Offense struggled to find its rhythm, and the impact of losing DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t seem to be built into this line. I’ll take Baltimore to win by more than 7 against a Texans team that still trying to find itself on offense.
- MIN +3 @ IND (-110)
This may be my spiciest take of the week, but I didn’t think the Vikings were that bad against the Packers last week. The defense allowed an angry Aaron Rodgers to make his way down the field, however, a twilight-year Phillip Rivers is a far cry from the Vikings Week One opponent. The Vikings also showed an ability to score quickly if needed, with Adam Thielen still being an excellent option at receiver. I think Vegas may have over-compensated for the Vikings faltering last week, and I’ll take the 3 points against the turnover-prone Rivers.
- BUF -6 @ MIA (-110)
Buffalo looked great last week against the Jets, and get another good matchup against Miami in Week Two. Devante Parker looks to be hobbled, and the Bills Defense should be more than able to contain the Dolphins Offense that struggled significantly against the Pats last week. I foresee a similar result for the Dolphins this week, and will gladly take the Bills to win by more than six. The Bills have a very similar aura to the early-season 49ers from last season, and if they can further build momentum early this year, I’ll be more aggressively taking the Bills in the future.
- DET +6.5 @ GB (-110)
I don’t like to chase, but I really believe in the Lions this year. Detroit lost in classic Lions fashion last week against the Bears, but it was more so the Lions losing the game than the Bears winning. The Packers looked angry, but I expect this to be a shootout with great backdoor cover potential. Further, with these divisional matchups there’s always room for a funky game script which I think benefits the Lions greatly here.
- KC -2.5 @ LAC / SF -1 @ NYJ (-110)
I’m a huge 49ers fan, and even I think the team looked to be in the midst of a terrible Super Bowl hangover in Week One. That being said, the Jets looked to be absolutely inept against the Bills last week. This is really a bet on the Jets being terrible, not the 49ers returning to form. Given the state of both offenses, I anticipate an ugly game with many blown opportunities, but the 49ers eking out a win.
I’ll be feeling out other lines as the weekend progresses. There’s a trend of taking road favorites above, which makes sense to me given the waning impact of home field ‘advantage’ in recent years. This should be exacerbated this year, as mostly empty stadiums should further fuel the trend.
Place your bets, set your lineups, and prepare your body. Good luck!
This week really sneaked up on me. Without preseason we’ve been thrust directly into prime betting season with regular season NFL football. The beginning of the year is the most exciting, before Vegas really gets attuned to the lines, and there’s softness (or at least my perception of softness) to take advantage of. I have some strong preseason stances that I’m looking to cash in on here until the linesmakers catch up.
Note the below features a retrospective of the Thursday night game, and a preview of the Sunday slate.
- HOU @ KC -9 (-110)
Kansas City did nothing in the off season to indicate that they wouldn’t be contending for a back to back Super Bowl, meanwhile, the Texans lost their most valuable offensive weapon and didn’t seem to make any substantial changes that would allow them to stand up to the Chiefs offense. In recent years the Super Bowl Champion has covered the spread in their first game back, and this match up seemed especially assured.
- HOU @ KC Over 54.5 (-110)
Between sloppy defense with poor tackling from a short off season, and at least one offensively elite team I figured that any over would be fairly safe. As it often goes, the first half missed field goal from the Texans was a very poor omen. Further, a missed two point conversion and CEH’s failure to hit pay dirt on the Chief’s final offensive drive (rather settling for a field goal) secured this bet’s fate. Unfortunately, getting in on a bad line (with the total of this game closing at 53.5) makes this one sting even more.
- GB +2.5 @ MIN (-110)
The Vikings were hit particularly hard with opt-outs this season. I also believe this division in general to be incredibly murky, with no expectation of who will take the division crown. That being said, I’ll take the free points and the Packers (led by the Aaron Rodgers revenge tour) in what will be a very close match up in Minnesota.
- DET -2.5 @ CHI (-110)
Matthew Stafford is fully healthy and ready to pickup where he left off last season where he was having a career year. Kenny Golladay’s injury is a hit, but I think the Lion still have sufficient firepower to outpace the Turbisky-led Bears offense by 3 points to secure this win.
- TB +3.5 @ NO (-115)
In Tom Brady’s first game for the Buccaneers I expect there to be fireworks. The Saints typically start seasons slower than other, and the off season has been abuzz with inadvisable impromptu Buccaneer practices. The absence of (or at least a significantly limited) Mike Evans would typically give me pause, but the Buccaneers have so many weapons that Evans as a decoy should be enough to cover this bet.
- TB @ NO Over 49.5 (-110)
Similar to the above, I think the game will be a close win or loss regardless of outcome. To get to this outcome I imagine both teams trading blows for the entirety of the game. This line has fallen to 47.5 since I’ve taken this wager, and I may put even more down at this point.