Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 17, 2019)

1) MIA +22.5 @ NE, KC -3 vs. LAC (-110)

The Pats offense has looked terrible in recent weeks, even though the Dolphins have a putrid patchwork defense, I didn’t think the Pats could stage a win of 22 or more with Fitzpatrick playing in this game. After pacing this bet the spread increased further, and I really wasn’t sure what bettors were thinking. What I didn’t expect was a straight-up Dolphins victory over the Pats. Fitzpatrick and Parker (who I think has outperformed all other WRs against Gilmore this year) led the Dolphins to a strong offensive showing against the the vaunted Patriots Defense. The Pats will be playing in Wild Card weekend for the first time in a long while

The Chiefs knew they had a shot (no matter how seemingly slim) to get a bye in the playoffs. I figured that the Chiefs starters would play for the entierty of the game, and the Pats cooperated by not going up big in the first half of their game (giving the Chiefs the motivation they needed) This game had all the makings of a 2019 Chargers game –

  • Display of early flashes of elite talent
  • Inevitably finding/digging themselves into a hole
  • Chargers mount a doomed comeback

In the end, the Chiefs came back safely, and in doing so secured a bye in the playoffs. This defense, that was gashed at times by Phillip Rivers, doesn’t seem like it can make it far in the playoffs, but if they can get healthier with the bye it could be enough for a long postseason run.

2) GB SU @ DET, ATL @ TB Over 48 (+120)A win that easily took a couple years off of my life, coming down to the wire in both cases. It really didn’t have to be this way, Detroit with a backup quarterback, and a hobbled Tampa offense against a recently strong Atlanta defense seemed like the perfect storm.

Green Bay started off very slow on offense, featuring several overthrows and miscommunication on the part of Rodgers and his receivers. Coming alive in the second half, Rodgers began to connect with his receivers. Despite one missed field goal, Mason Crosby made the kick when it mattered, delivering on a 33 yard field goal as time expired.

The first half went to planned for Tampa with a strong 38 points posted. The pace sputtered significantly in the second half with Winston putting up anemic numbers. Three missed field goals didn’t help, but luckily the game made it to overtime. A touchdown was necessary, and Jameis delivered when it mattered most. A quick pick six sealed this bet.

I really hope Jameis gets resigned, betting on him has been a ton of fun. There aren’t many quarterbacks that can stage comebacks (or set his own team back) like Jameis can.

3) NE SU vs. MIA, NO SU @ CAR, TEN SU @ HOU (-110)This one certainly seemed like a safe bet, with all teams having vital playoff implications based on the outcomes of the game. The Saints immediately handled their business, and the game was basically finished after the first quarter with Grier and the Panthers offense failing to generate anything. Even with Kyle Allen coming in, he was good for a turnover, and couldn’t generate much beyond yards for Christian McCaffery.

In Houston, the Titans took care of business, with Derrick Henry scoring multiple touchdowns in the second half. They earned themselves a trip to New England, and they look like a very well rounded team going into that matchup.

I was very surprised that the leg to lose this parlay was the Pats. A shocking loss to Miami after closing as 16.5 point favorites is quite shocking, and very ‘un-pats-like’. Onto the Wild Card Round?

4) NO -6.5 @ CAR, KC -1.5 vs. LAC, WAS +17 @ DAL (+150)Washington kept it close to start, but this game was over mid-way through the third. Unfortunately it’s all for naught as the Eagles were able to win against the Giants, sealing the Cowboys fate in itself.

5) SF -3 @ SEA (-125)A game that the Niners virtually needed if they wanted to legitimately make a Super Bowl run. The defense returned to form, and the Seahawks losing a great deal of depth in their running game helped a lot to secure this bet as well. In the end it came down to the defense holding. There will be some controversial calls, but in the end the Niners, and the bet pulled through.