Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 11, 2020)

To kick things off, some Thursday night results:

  1. W – SEA-3 vs. AZ (-110)
  2. L – Russell Wilson to rush for Over 50.5 Yards (+275, Half-Unit)
  3. W – Russell Wilson to rush for Over 31.5 Yards (-115, Half-Unit)
    Overall, the game went about as predictably as a divisional Thursday night game would go. Given this game involved the Seahawks, of course it took a fourth quarter safety to hit the cover.

    The Cardinals were definitely cognizant of Wilson scrambles as it felt like they either had a spy or hyper aware linebackers for the majority of the night. I felt good about the number of attempts the Seattle signal caller received, but he wasn’t able to break through on a couple of the rushes for larger gains required to hit the 51 yards. Luckily, he safely hit 32 yards rushing which more than paid for both bets.

    This takes our season record to 58-47.5-2, onto the main slate:
  4. L – NE -2 @ HOU (-110)
    Kicking Sunday off with a few straight spreads. For the most part, we got the better of the lines by betting early. However, there was a moment on Sunday where this game was Pats -1/-1.5. Unfortunately, the Pats defense let up too many chunk plays. The offense couldn’t keep up.
  5. L – ATL +5 @ NO (-110)
    Atlanta started out promising, but the defense fell for every Taysom Hill gimmick. Emmanuel Sanders bailed his quarterback out several time, truly paying for himself in one game.
  6. W – CLE -3 vs. PHI (+100)
    A messy gross game. Cleveland has the edge in these as they’re used to them by now. Having two of the top fiver rushers in the league (in my opinion) really helps.
  7. W GB @ IND Over 52 (-110)
    A shootout, as predicted! What I didn’t was predict was this ineptitude from the Green Bay offense in the second half.
  8. LMIA @ DEN Over 46 (-110)
    There was a massive glimmer of hope when Fitzmagic orchestrated a drive into the red zone. However, the clock struck midnight and he threw a pick in his hot and cold fashion. I was between this game and the Chargers game for a high scoring shootout, and I feel for the Denver trap again. Never again.
  9. W – LAC -3 @ NYJ / PIT-4 @ JAX (-110)
    This was the “who messes this up?” / “too bad to win?” teaser. This week, all went to plan, including the Steelers playing down to their opponents.
  10. L – PIT -.5 @ JAX / MIA -.5 @ DEN (-125)
    Miami failed to cover.
  11. W – GB +7.5 @ IND / KC -1.5 @ LV (-110)
    The Chiefs made it quite exciting, actually trailing for much of the second half with a stagnating offense. When it counted, they marched down the field in the final two minutes and hit on a crucial turnover. A magnificent and exciting cover!
  12. L – Patrick Mahomes Longest Pass Over 40.5 (+100)
    There were only a few attempts over 20 yards tonight for Mahomes, and unfortunately none of them hit. It was death by a million cuts and the run game tonight.

On the week we are an undesirable 4-5 (add) for 62-52.5-2 on the year.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 10, 2020)

  1. W – TB -.5 @ CAR / PIT -1 vs. CIN (-110)
    A very clean hit with both games feeling secure for the vast majority. Good teams beat bad teams, it’s as simple as that.
  2. L – DEN @ LV Over 52 (-110)
    I think there were at least four red zone/near red zone turnovers in this game. Very sloppy, with about near the minimum number of expected points coming out here.
  3. W – SEA +8 @ LAR / BUF+7.5 @ AZ (-110)
    A thriller in Arizona, but we were okay both ways. Seattle luckily went for the field goal first, and safely carried us to winning this bet.
  4. W – MIA -0.5 vs. LAC (-120)
    The Dolphins are the real deal. The Chargers cannot keep it together for an entire game, and I think will fall apart for the rest of the season.
  5. L – SF -0.5 @ NO (+335, Half-Unit)
    What started out so promising was stifled by bad penalties and sloppiness on special teams. What could’ve been…
  6. L – CLE+2 @ HOU / LAC+7.5 @ MIA (-110)
    Losing by half a point hurts, but there wasn’t a missed field goal or kick here, it was simply the Chargers not being able to do enough. The Browns game was mostly boring, but they won against a struggling Texans team.
  7. LBAL @ NE First Quarter Over 7.5 (+100)
    A silly impulse bet, I should’ve known better. This Pats offense cannot score, and the Ravens chew clock on offense by design.
  8. L – IND +8 @ TEN / BAL -1 @ NE (-110)
    Dang it Baltimore.
  9. L – Lamar Jackson to Score a Rushing Touchdown (+140, Half-Unit)

For this week we ended 3-4 getting us to 56.5-47-2 on the year.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 9, 2020)

  1. Aaron Rodgers to Pass for Over 2.5 Touchdowns (+150, Half-Unit)
    As a 49ers fan, I know how this secondary hasn’t been particularly stout this year. Further, the COVID impact in addition to existing injuries further depleted this team. As such, I was fairly confident Rodgers would have a good night, but he covered this bet in the first half. I kicked myself for not also taking his longest-yard pass over 39.5 yards prop bet after taking a hard look at that one as well.

    This brings our record to 49.5-33.5-2 on the year. Onto Sunday’s bets: 

  1. NYG +3 @ WAS (-110)
    Close, gross, and sloppy teams in a sloppy divisional matchup. I take the points and run.
  2. CHI +5.5 @ TEN (-110)
    I don’t think the Titans are that great on defense, and it’s a defense that the Bears can score on via short passes + YAC against blown coverages. Five and a half points felt safe in what I thought would be a close Titans win, however, the line has moved a point against my wager since it was placed.
  3. NO +11.5 @ TB / HOU-.5 @ JAX (-110)
    The Saints should be returning Michael Thomas against a very streaky Tampa Bay Team. I’m somewhat worried by the return of Antonio Brown, but I’m thinking this will be a game the Saints will come out and try to control.
    In terms of the Texans, they have no incentive to tank, and are playing a rookie backup quarterback. Hopefully the Jaguars don’t out tank themselves in this one.
  4. KC -4.5 vs. CAR / TEN+.5 vs. CHI (-110)
    The Chiefs are very good, the Panthers defense is not. I like the Chiefs winning by five or more. I think the Titans game will be close (perhaps a tie?!) so trying to play the middle here on a team very similar to the Seahawks where we hit a couple weeks back.
  5. SEA +3.5 @ BUF / NE -1 @ NYJ (-110)
    Seattle doesn’t play normal games, but I think they’ll play close against the Bills. As bad as the Pats have played, they can’t lose to the Jets right?