Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 9, 2020)

  1. Aaron Rodgers to Pass for Over 2.5 Touchdowns (+150, Half-Unit)
    As a 49ers fan, I know how this secondary hasn’t been particularly stout this year. Further, the COVID impact in addition to existing injuries further depleted this team. As such, I was fairly confident Rodgers would have a good night, but he covered this bet in the first half. I kicked myself for not also taking his longest-yard pass over 39.5 yards prop bet after taking a hard look at that one as well.

    This brings our record to 49.5-33.5-2 on the year. Onto Sunday’s bets: 

  1. NYG +3 @ WAS (-110)
    Close, gross, and sloppy teams in a sloppy divisional matchup. I take the points and run.
  2. CHI +5.5 @ TEN (-110)
    I don’t think the Titans are that great on defense, and it’s a defense that the Bears can score on via short passes + YAC against blown coverages. Five and a half points felt safe in what I thought would be a close Titans win, however, the line has moved a point against my wager since it was placed.
  3. NO +11.5 @ TB / HOU-.5 @ JAX (-110)
    The Saints should be returning Michael Thomas against a very streaky Tampa Bay Team. I’m somewhat worried by the return of Antonio Brown, but I’m thinking this will be a game the Saints will come out and try to control.
    In terms of the Texans, they have no incentive to tank, and are playing a rookie backup quarterback. Hopefully the Jaguars don’t out tank themselves in this one.
  4. KC -4.5 vs. CAR / TEN+.5 vs. CHI (-110)
    The Chiefs are very good, the Panthers defense is not. I like the Chiefs winning by five or more. I think the Titans game will be close (perhaps a tie?!) so trying to play the middle here on a team very similar to the Seahawks where we hit a couple weeks back.
  5. SEA +3.5 @ BUF / NE -1 @ NYJ (-110)
    Seattle doesn’t play normal games, but I think they’ll play close against the Bills. As bad as the Pats have played, they can’t lose to the Jets right?

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 8, 2020)

  1. W – CLE vs. LV Under 52.5 (-110)
    The 50 mph gusts in the first half were a good sign, and a missed field goal and seemingly anemic offense through the same period also bode well. Red zone inefficiency and gusts sealed this one as an early win.
  2. L – GB -.5 vs. MIN/TEN +.5 @ CIN(-110)
    Two surprising upsets for two contenders. Lucky to have these teased together if I’m being honest. Green Bay was much more in this game, and had a chance to tie the game late. However, the Titans still look to be hungover from last week, and the Bungles truly played up to them.
  3. L – BAL -4 vs. PIT (-110)
    Pittsburgh is good. Mistakes from Lamar Jackson cost the Ravens what should’ve been a much more competitive game.
  4. L – DET vs. IND +10 /MIA+10 vs. LAR (-120)
    Betting on the Lions only bring pain. Never again, please, never let me do it again. Really let down that this fell on the opposite end of a raucous Miami effort to net Tua his first win as a starter.
  5. W – KC vs. NYJ -13.5/BUF+2 vs. NE (-110)
    The Chiefs took care of business and the Bills squeaked out a close one against a scrappy Patriots team. It wasn’t certain against New England, but it pulled through.
  6. L – NE Moneyline (+180, Half Unit)
    This one was close, Cam lost it for us. I was thinking this would be a “kitchen sink” game for the Pats, and it was. However, the Pats failed to execute as needed to win.
  7. W – SEA +3 vs. SF/ LV +8.5 @ CLE (-110)
    Las Vegas looked to be the better team all day, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. In gusty conditions, Josh Jacobs and Devonta Booker thrived. The 49ers had a terrible outing, with the Seahawks easily covering the three points, winning by a blowout.
  8. W – DEN +3 vs. LAC (+100)
    Denver cannot sustain a drive. I thought this would be a game where Justin Herbert is outmatched on the road, but he looked to be in full control the entire game up until the fourth quarter. In classic Chargers fashion there was some late game heroics/chicanery which led to a Broncos win. Very thankful that the extra point went through so that this bet was safely secured outside of overtime.
  9. L – Carson Wentz Longest Pass Over 37.5 Yards @ DAL (+100, Half-Unit)
  10. L – Carson Wentz Over 30.5 Rushing Yards Yards @ DAL (+200, Half-Unit)
  11. W – CHI +10 vs. NO/PHI -5 vs. DAL (-110)
    Chicago doesn’t make it easy, really the entire NFC North has been a pain to bet on/against today. However, they ultimately pulled through when it mattered, as the ten points was more than sufficient regardless of the overtime outcome. In fact, I found myself cheering for a tie. Slim win for the Saints, sure! A paper tiger for sure from my view though until Brees can get some receiving talent back.
    The Eagles looked terrible in the first half, failing to protect Wentz on nearly every play.

On the day we hit 5-4.5 getting us to 49-33.5-2 for the season.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 8, 2020)

  1. W – CAR vs. ATL 1H Over 24.5 (-120)
    Both of these teams have poor to very poor defenses. As such, the over felt safe. I like getting a hair below half the full game total with the first half with two bad defenses, and we hit comfortably.
  2. W – Teddy Bridgewater Rushing Yards over 14.5 @ (-110, Half-Unit)
    Watching Matt Ryan hit this bet in the first half while Bridgewater went into the break with negative one yard didn’t feel good. What feels worse is seeing the feel-good story of this NFL season crumple in heap on the ground after a trip and a cheap shot. Somehow, Teddy came through for us, rushing for 30 yards in garbage time. Truly the feel-good story of the year.
  3. L – CAR-2.5 vs. ATL (-120)
    This line actually decreased to -1.5 by kickoff (and at -110 odds no less) which actually spurred the above 1H total bet (chasing, bad, I know). With the conditions from the above, and already in a hole at that point, the Panthers just couldn’t take advantage of some first half situations which ultimately cost them the game and this bet. Between the injury, Thursday night wonkiness, weather, etc. I can accept the Falcons getting their second win in this mire of oddity. Panthers really should’ve used D.J. Moore much more this game.

    Thursday night record of 1.5-1, gives us an overall of 44-29-2. Onto the main slate:
  1. DEN+3 vs. LAC (+100)
    The Broncos defense has looked good, and while Justin Herbert has exceeded all expectations and is posting one of the best individual rookie QB performances in recent history, the Chargers are cursed. I’m a little afraid of divisional shenanigans, but I’m thinking the Broncos sneak one out in a lower scoring affair.
    
  2. CLE vs. LV Under 52.5 (-110)
    This is heavily influenced by weather. With a Las Vegas team traveling east to play in heavy rain, wind upwards of 30 mph, etc. I’m thinking this game is a messy, slogging, run-based battle. A recipe akin to the Washington/San Francisco game last year that ended nine to zero with all scoring occurring in the second half. I’m not alone on this one, as the line has adjusted to 51 since I’ve placed my wager.
    
  3. GB/TEN -.5/+.5 @ MIN/CIN (-110)
    This is the classic, ‘these teams can’t possibly lose to those teams’ teaser. Green Bay has been red hot all year aside from one stinker against the Bucs. Meanwhile the Vikings have looked dreadful all year, and just traded away one of their better defenders.

    On the other end of the teaser are the Titans coming off a very close loss to the Steelers. They get a one win Bungles team that would actually benefit more from a loss at this point than a win. The Titans need to bank these ‘easy’ wins as their next four games hand them the Bears, Colts twice, and Ravens.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 7, 2020)

  1. W- GB-3 @ HOU (-105)
    I placed this bet as I cleared my mind on a morning walk. In that tranquility, I realized how incredibly overvalued the Texans were here. Home field is basically null this year, and Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss bodes extremely well for the Packers winning. Above all, the Texans are terribly coached, typically requiring heroics from Deshaun Watson to provide any kind of spark. A nice easy win to start the Week Seven slate.
  2. Push – CLE-3 @ CIN (-130)
    This felt sketchy as the game progressed starting with the dreadful first quarter start for Baker Mayfield (in which he went without a completion). Even though the Browns made the miraculous score in the waning moments of the game. The owner of the ‘Double Doink” adds to his legacy by missing the extra point, costing us the cover. We settle for a push. For those who placed this bet right before the game, Parkey provided a bad beat.
  3. W – CAR+7.5 @ NO (-120)
    D.J. Moore showed why he had a second round ADP in fantasy this year. He was all over the field, keeping drives alive with his heroics, and getting the Panthers in the end zone. They safely cover, and actually looked like they had a chance to win at several points in the game. I really like this Panthers team, and I feel like they’re a few pieces away from seriously contending under Matt Rhule.
  4. W – TEN/SF+7.5/+9 @ PIT/NE (-110)
    The Titans were down big early, however the Steelers only scoring three points in the second half, along with some turnovers gave the Titans the opening they needed. However, they couldn’t seal the deal late in the game, with Stephen Gostkowski actually costing the Titans the game tying field goal here. Luckily, with the seven points we safely cover that side of the teaser.
    The Patriots never had a league in this game, as the 49ers scored on the opening drive, and never looked back. San Francisco’s offense, led by the varied rushing attack (get well soon Jeff Wilson Jr.) looked light years ahead of the Patriots defense. On defense, the 49ers dominated both Patriots quarterbacks, taking the ball away four times. This is likely a turning point game for both teams, the Patriots looking more likely to rebuild, and the 49ers pushing to stay in playoff contention.
  5. W – DET/LAC+8/-1.5 @ ATL/JAX (-110)
    Detroit kept it close for the entirety of the game. While they didn’t take advantage of the Falcons secondary as one would expect, the plus eight never felt in doubt. Even better, they keep the legend (tragedy) of Atlanta alive, winning the game in the final moments despite the Falcons having a game-winning kick situation.
    The Chargers are truly cursed, from missed kicks to a blocked punt scoop-n-score, the Chargers do not make it easy by any means. Justin Herbert was viewed with skepticism by many in the last draft, but he’s turned out to be Patrick Mahomes on a cursed team. There were a couple mental lapses in this game for the Chargers, however the Tanksonville stank overcame the Chargers curse and Jacksonville pulled out the win.
  6. W- TB – 2.5 @ LV (-120)
    The Raiders struck first, but Tom Brady was evoking vintage connections with Rob Gronkowski, fueling the Buccaneers in this game. From there, the defense and run game (along with Mike Evans drawing an inordinate number of flags), allowed Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the Raiders without much issue.
  7. W – KC/BUF-4.5/-2 @ DEN/NYJ (-110)
    I took this due to favorable line movements occurring that I didn’t get in on earlier. This was a hasty double-down that felt akin to an options trader trying to chase their losses. Buffalo covered the above, so this wasn’t in doubt. However, they didn’t make it comfortable.

    The snow caught me slightly off guard, but the Chiefs should be able to outgun a young Denver team right? Absolutely, it looked like the Broncos were the ones that were uncomfortable on their home field. The Chiefs defense forced several turnovers, and the offense continues to be in championship form. An expected win for the defending champions.
  8. WKC/BUF/SEA-3/-5.5/+3.5 @ NYJ/DEN/AZ (+150)
    Buffalo won with the only scores being six field goals. What a day. Luckily the Jets are the Jets and this somehow covered.
    The Chiefs easily covered the three points and then some. Chad Henne even scored!
    The Seahawks offense took advantage of the Cardinals early on, but Arizona kept it tight in the end, winning by three (see more below).
  9. W – Russell Wilson Longest Pass Over 43.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
    “Let Russ Cook”, a motto bequeath upon this Seattle offense due to a seemingly innocuous preseason comment. Lockette also took his turn at elite Seattle pass catcher this game and sealed a 47 yard TD pass in the first half.
  10. W – Russell Wilson Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (+250, Half-Unit)
    The Cardinals play a very fast defense, but that can lead to very quick broken plays. A few of these occurred in the first half leading Wilson to 56 first half rushing yards. Everything in the second half was gravy.
  11. W – AZ+3.5 vs. SEA (-115)
    Logic – Seattle is always in tight games; action – greed. I was hoping the result of the Sunday night game would be within a field goal either way. In reality, the Cardinals had the right idea with an end zone interception to start the fourth quarter, but gave the ball right back to Seattle. This game was very back and forth at the end. In what ultimately ended in overtime, Arizona sealed the game with a field goal, covering this bet. I’m super happy that the logic here held and we got to double dip. Classic divisional matchup.

This was an exemplary week, ending  9-0-1, we can only hope every week has a result like this. Overall, we’re at a season total of 42.5-28-2. Let’s do this again next week!!