Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 13, 2020)

  1. W – IND -3 @ HOU (-105)
    This one came down to the wire, but the Colts were able to force a turnover late and secure this game. Almost every game came down to the waning moments in the early block, but this one was a quicker resolution. The Colts somehow barely squeak out close wins against teams playing for a high draft pick. The AFC South will be sending the most puzzling of representatives to the playoffs this year.
  2. W – CLE +6 @ TEN (-110)
    Cleveland covered very early, with the entire second half basically being garbage time. I’m usually not on the right side of these bets, so this was nice and refreshing. Baker finally earned those endorsements, and was rewarded with praise and a second half acting as a ball shelf for the Browns’ running backs.
  3. W – CLE @ TEN Over 24.5 Second Half (-110, Live Bet)
    I went from thinking this was a lock with eight minutes remaining in the third quarter, to sweating it out until the doldrums of garbage time with seconds on the clock. Thank you to the Browns to fumbling on a fourth and one when they clearly had dinner, or other thoughts past the blowout game in mind.
  4. W – LV@ NYJ -1.5 / MIN -3 @ JAX (-120)
    A half-win but we’ll count it. That’s why you buy down to three instead of counting on the Vikings to somehow beat a one-win Jags team by more than a field goal. Yeesh, double-digit favorites seems like a far cry from reality in hindsight. The Raiders made it even tighter, but the Jets displaying the most graceful of tanks, waiting until the final seconds to allow the Raiders to reclaim the lead and steal the win.
  5. WSEA vs. NYG under 47.5 (-110)
    A five point first half had this looking tasty going into halftime. In fact, the five points should’ve been three if it wasn’t for the Giants punting unit. In the second half, the Seahawks failed to produce much of anything, and New York was able to score on an unsuspecting Seahawks unit. This was the exact recipe we needed to secure this bet, and it never really felt in doubt. At this point, betting on Seattle playing ridiculous games is a solid strategy. Throw logic and reason out the window with this Seattle team.
  6. W – LAR -3 @ AZ (-110)
    Other than the Raiders game, this was the clencher of the day. A very back and forth game that started with a poor omen, the busted play for an easy TD for the Cardinals. Kyler Murray is either seeing ghosts, has an injured shoulder, or both, as he basically gave this game away off of his errant passes.
  7. W – LV @ NYJ -1 / GB -2.5 vs. PHI (-120)
    Green bay held up their end of the bargain, beating the Eagles who have lost their grip on the NFC East. The Packers are able to routinely beat up on mediocre/hobbled teams. However, they fail to put teams away. Even worse, they’ve yet to secure a marquee win worthy of true a true Super Bowl contender. If this game really showed anything, it’s that the Eagles need to take a hard look at themselves in the offseason. Hopefully, it’s without Doug Pederson.
  8. W – LV @ NYJ -1.5 / NE + 8 @ LAC ( -110)
    Now I thought that the Patriots would win a close sloppy game due to a decisive coaching edge (and despite a talent disparity). However, this game was a lost cause for the Chargers from the first quarter. The Patriots took control of the game in the first half by taking advantage of every opportunity they were given. In the second half, they clamped down, and won the game outright by a very comfortable margin.
  9. L – TEN 0 vs. CLE / SEA -4 vs. NYG (-110)
    The Titans were nowhere near winning this game. Aside from a .01 percent chance with 13 seconds remaining pre-kickoff. The Titans are certainly paper tigers in my view with regards to AFC contention. We took a big bath here to use accounting terms, as the Seahawks lost outright. The good news is we isolated the losing to this one bet.
  10. W – Patrick Mahomes Longest Pass to be Over 42.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
    Divisional games are always a little off, but this one started especially off, with the Broncos going into halftime with a lead. The Chiefs weren’t getting too many long looks, and a terrible holding call robbed what would’ve been a Tyreek Hill backflip sealing touchdown catch over the 42.5 yards. After that point, the game clock pushed the Chiefs towards a Patriots-esque control style offense. Accurate throws and ball control with a lead at this stage in the game kept the Chiefs in the picture for a playoff bye. However, it cost us this bet.
  11. W – Patrick Mahomes Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-130, Half-Unit)
    This one hit early in the first half as the Chiefs failing to find their offensive footing resulted in some improvised rushing yards for Mahomes.
  12. ?GB -2.5 vs. PHI / BUF +7 @ SF (-110)
    Green Bay held up their end of the bargain. We’ll see if Buffalo takes the 49ers seriously enough to cover this game, and our bet.

This puts as at 8.5-1.5 for the week, with one more bet pending. Overall for the year, we’re at 78.5-61-2.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 12, 2020)

  1. L – AZ @ NE Over 49.5 Points (-110)
    This didn’t look good in the first half with Scam Newton and his 13.0 QB rating. However, the Pats managed some offense in the second half. The defense continued to contain the Cardinals, and this was a very apparent loss from the third quarter onward.
  2. L – AZ -1 @ NE (-110)
    This line moved down from -2.5 when I pounced. Unfortunately, the sharp action was right taking the Pats here. The Pats made this an ugly game, stifling the typically fast Cardinals offense. This was the game script they needed to win, and they executed their plan to perfection.
  3. L – AZ -.5 @ NE Second Half (-110)
    Instead of trusting my eyes, seeing the Cardinals being stopped by the Pats, I fooled myself into thinking the Cardinals offense would turn in on in the second half. That’s tough with a young quarterback traveling east against a well-coached New England team. The wise money would’ve been to hedge on New England. A silly double-down loss.
  4. W – CAR +3.5 @ MIN (-110)
    Looked bleak in the first half for the Teddy-Two-Glove revenge game. Then two fumble recoveries for touchdowns and Dalvin Cook going down significantly changed the geometry of this game. The Vikings ultimately won the game through a last minute TD and a missed Panthers field goal. A rough day for Joey Slye, missing the game winning field goal and having a kick blocked earlier in the game as well.
  5. L – LV -3 @ ATL (-115)
    Similar to the Falcons win over the 49ers last year, they won this game in shocking fashion against a surging Las Vegas team. The Falcons shooting themselves in the foot, but getting a quality win over a Raiders team in the thick of the playoff race.
  6. L- LV @ ATL Over 53.5 Points (-110)
    This one is rough. A hot Vegas offense only scoring six points against a below average Falcons defense. They had chances, even one touchdown somewhere in the game would’ve closed this bet. Instead, the Falcons steal a pointless game and cost us a a bet.
  7. WNYG -.5 @ CIN / BUF -.5 vs. LAC (-104)
    The New York State teaser hits, with both teams giving their opponent a multitude of chances to comeback. In a hilarious series of events, there were several turnovers in near-consecutive plays between the Chargers and Bills. However, the better team ultimately closed the game due to more poor play calling and clock management from Anthony Lynn. The Giants finally unlocked Evan Engram (although he did fumble), and managed to eke out a win despite Daniel Jones exiting the game early. A nice win after the bevy of losses from the Patriots game.
  8. WTEN @ IND Over 46.5 Points / NO -.5 @ DEN (-110)
    The Colts and Titans just about blew by their total in the first half. The Colts scored a couple quick strikes, but all the while allowed Derrick Henry and the Titans offense to steamroll over them. In the second half, the Tennessee defense understandably laid back a bit, leading to the Colts adding some garbage time points. This divisional matchup ended at an astounding 71 point total.

    The Saints/Broncos game started in startlingly anemic fashion, however by the third quarter the Saints firmly held control of the game. Turns out, it’s incredibly difficult to win a NFL game without a quarterback. Shoutout to contemplative morning walks that led to placing this teaser before the Saints line exploded.
  9. L – CLE -1 @ JAX / LAR -.5 vs. SF (-110)
    Cleveland really made this one close. Baker Mayfield made this game as exciting as possible. To the Jaguars, bravo, the graceful tank for Trevor season continues. A wildly entertaining game that still ends in the best result for the cursed Jaguars franchise.

    Divisional wonkiness abound in this game. The 49ers controlled the first half, but then the Rams scored 17 unanswered points. Ultimately, a sloppy late quarter drive from the Rams cost them the game. The 49ers sweep the season series against the Rams :’D. As a San Francisco fan I’m pleased, but a lose taken on this bet. The Rams are truly a wild
  10. W CLE 0 @ JAX / GB -2.5 vs. CHI (-110)
    See above on Cleveland, for a bit, I was actually thinking I would need the tie to help push this bet. However, the Browns held out just long enough.

    Green Bay won comfortably due in large part to the poor performance of Mitch Turbisky. The Bears are truly a quarterback away from truly contending. Until then, their defense will watch helplessly as their quarterback sinks any hopes the team had to make a playoff run.
  11. W – MIA -1 @ NYJ / GB -2.5 vs. CHI (-110)
    Miami had some early turnovers, but they went mostly unpunished. Key stops on fourth down kept this game in the control of the fish. The Jets hardly put up a fight (unlike the graceful tank exemplified by the Jaguars). An easy cover for the first leg of this bet.

    The Packers held up their end, beating an imbalanced team with a poor quarterback handily.
  12. ? – MIA -.5 @ NYJ / SEA +.5 @ PHI (-110)
    See above for conversation on the largely boring and uncompetitive Dolphins game. Slight line variation due to when the bets were placed. This one is pending the result of the Monday Night game.

On the day we are 5-6. A silly halftime bet is the regret of the week. That’s good for 68-59.5-2 on the season and we’re pending one more for this week. We’ve been incredibly sloppy the last few weeks, doing no better than going even. Here’s hoping to turning things around in Week 13.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 12, 2020)

  1. W – HOU -3 @ DET (-110)
    I had absolutely zero faith in the Lions in this game. Between a pitiful defense with key injuries, Matt Patricia somehow being a worse coach than Romeo Crennel, and Kenny Galloday’s continued absence, this became an easy call. The Lions somehow always manage to mess things up, and Thanksgiving was no different. An easy win for the Texans.

    Ironically, this win pushes Houston down the draft board, which likely hurts the team long term.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  2. L – Deshaun Watson Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-120, Half-Unit)
    I swear Watson had over 34 rushing yards at some point in this game. Not sure if I just misread my phone in the second half (yes, I left once this game became too painful to watch), but this one felt like a bad beat. Please let me know if you know how this bet was blown (or if Watson just never rushed over 33.5 yards to begin with and I was seeing mirages).
  3. L – Terry McLaurin to Score a TD (+125, Half-Unit)
    Antonio Gibson feasted on the Cowboys woeful defense. This meant that McLaurin didn’t really need to be featured to win this game. In fact, there was only one receiving touchdown (to the tight end in classic Alex Smith fashion). While McLaurin was Washington’s receiving leader, he wasn’t needed much, nor did he score to close this bet. Congratulations to the NFC East leading Washington Football Team who improved to four wins on Thanksgiving.

    With the Thanksgiving slate complete due to a COVID infested Baltimore team, our current record stands at 63-53.5-2 

Onto my wagers for a surprisingly good looking remaining slate:

  1. AZ @ NE Over 49.5 Points (-110)
  2. CAR +3.5 @ MIN (-110)
  3. LV -3 @ ATL (-115)
  4. LV @ ATL Over 53.5 Points (-110)
  5. NYG -.5 @ CIN / BUF -.5 vs. LAC (-110)
  6. CLE -1 @ JAX / LAR -.5 vs. SF (-110)
  7. CLE 0 @ JAX / GB -2.5 vs. CHI (-110)
  8. GB -2.5 vs. CHI / MIA -1 @ NYJ (-110)
  9. MIA -.5 @ NYJ / SEA +.5 @ PHI (-110)
  10. NO -.5 @ DEN / TEN @ IND Over 46.5 Points (-110)