Bet Review (NFL Week 13, 2019)

1) NO -.5 @ ATL, GB -.5 @ NYG (-110)These seemed like low spreads for good teams against bad teams. Both had moments where the game got tight, but both showed why they are contenders for the NFC. The Saints were able to stave off late game heroics from Younghoe Koo, and Rodgers finally showed what everyone was expecting in the preseason from the Packers offense.

2) CLE @ PIT Under 39 (-110)The Steelers defense came through as scoring was stifled in the 4th quarter. Baker struggled on the road, and as Tomlin said “Hodges won’t kill us”. Against bad offenses, I like the Steelers going under as low-scoring/grindy games are their only path to victory with this roster.

3) KC -4 vs. OAK, CIN +9.5 vs. NYJ (-110)The Bengals didn’t try to hide that they were going for the win by re-insertimg Dalton into the lineup against a spotty Jets team at home. I believed that the Jets would be able to keep it close, but the defense looked bad on the road, and Darnold was unable to produce for most of the game.

I thought that the Raiders would play a bit harder after getting nearly shut out by the Jets last week, but it was another down performance against the Chiefs. What I thought would be a vulnerable secondary took advantage of Derek Carr, and a sloppy special teams play early set a negative tone for the Riaders from the start.

4) GB SU @ NYG, PHI SU @ MIA, BOS SU @ NYK, ORL SU vs. GSW (+162)

The Eagles really needed this game to stay ahead in the NFC East. Despite an early lead, the defense fell apart against a Dolpins team with nothing to lose.

The Celtics bounced back in New York, pulling out the win in the fourth quarter. The script was similar for Orlando who let the Warriors hang around, but ultimately pulled out the win.

5) PIT +8.5 vs. CLE, NE +3 @ HOU (-110)

The Steelers hit the under and ground out this game out which safely covered even their initial spread. Things went even better than expected for the Steelers, and there was little doubt throughout the game that this would be missed.

The same cannot be said for the Patriots who failed to even stay in competition throughout the game in Houston. The Brown, Gordon, and I’d even say Demariyus Thomas releases are now coming back to bite the Pats, whose best receiver was easily James White. Sanu is playing at an even lower level than when he was in Atlanta, and the two rookie wide receivers are dropping catches at a torrid rate. I’m still surprised the Pats lost, as this Texans team has been very inconsistent this season. Even in this game, their run game looked poor, but Watson was able to take advantage of softness (some of which was injury-related) and the game never seemed competitive.

I don’t think this changes anything for the Pats, and I still love them over bad teams.

Bet Review (NBA – Week of Nov. 25, 2019)

1) BOS SU vs. BYK, TOR SU vs. NYK, LAL SU @ NOP (+110) The Celtics and Raptors pulled through as expected. The energy in Boston alone was enough to win that game, and the Raptors controlled the game from the 2nd quarter onward.

The narrative in my mind in regards to AD’s return to NOLA had a slow start. Coupled with the Pelicans shooting at a torid 80%+ rate from 3 had the Lakers down double digits for most of the game up to the fourth quarter. Anthony Davis needing to go back to the locker room also created a breath-holding moment. Fortunately, Kuzma shot well from 3, and the Lakers bigs bullied their way into enough open shots and free throws gutting out a closer than expected win.

2) LAC SU @ SAS, UTA SU @ MEM, MIA SU vs. GSW (+150)I felt like Conley wouldn’t lose to the Grizzlies twice and with Butler coming back, that was just an odds booster. Kawhi really let me down here, and I’m surprised that the Spurs were able to shut down the Clippers offense with their wealth of weapons. I thought that the Clippers had a chance to pull it back in the fourth, but two quick 3s from the Spurs extinguished that thought quickly. I still believe in the Clippers against bad teams, but the return game narrative and the entire day after the Thanksgiving break being wonky cost me here.

3) BOS SU @ BYK, TOR SU @ ORL, DAL SU @ PHX (+112)The Celtics in the early game underwhelmed significantly. They looked lost on defense against the injury-ridden Nets, and their terrible shooting from 3 hampered any semblance of a comeback attempt. Two other factors, the day after a break league-wide and the recent memory of a defeat on Wednesday fuled heavily on the Nets here.

The Raptors handled business against a undermanned Orlando team as expected from the veteran squad. It will be interesting to see how Orlando bounces back once Gordon and Vucevic return.

While the first half was tight, and the third quarter had some swings, untimatley the talent in Dallas won out with an explosion in the fourth (if only the Clippers could’ve done this against the Spurs).

Two bad breaks in inopportune spots led to losing out on both Friday parlays.

Bet Review (Week 6, 2019)

1) NE -17 vs. NYG (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • New England against bad teams is very safe.
  • The first quarter is a facade.

Verdict: Ride the Pats against bad teams.

2) JAX +4.5 vs. NO, TEN +7.5 @ DEN (-110)

Lessons Learned;

  • Despite Ramsey returning, this game was a display of the Jags offensive floor (it is low).
  • I thought home field + points would be enough, but the Jags thought no.
  • I cannot believe I trusted Mariota.

Verdict: Dammit Jags, Minshew has to be better than 6 points. Don’t look to games with two bad teams.

3) KC -4 vs. HOU, Over 55 (+264)

  • Lessons Learned:
    • Game was trending well until Mahomes ankle was tweaked.
      KC run defense is abhorrent.
      Houston offense is starting to click and the bad defense helped a ton.
      Scoring stalled near the end due to uncharacteristic turnovers.

    Verdict: Chiefs aren’t as steady to win with Mahomes hobbled, but the over against a fast paced offense seems like a safe bet.

    4) PHI +9 @ MIN, SEA +4.5 @ CLE (-110)

    Lessons Learned:

    • CLE is as bad as advertised last week. SEA likes to make it exciting, but it never felt like they were out of control.
    • Is Philly good? Are the Vikings bad? Was this home field advantage, or is the Eagles offense not good? Questions still remain.

    Verdict: Philly can’t be trusted, the Browns are unpredictable, but the Seahawks may be the genuine article.

    5) SF +3 @ LAR (+100)

    Lessons Learned:

    • Jared Goff has the worst Superbowl hangover, or maybe it’s Gurley.
    • 49ers defense is the real strength as the offense can be spotty (young skill players felt here).
    • Rams home field advantage doesn’t feel like they just went to the Superbowl.

    Verdict: Niners seem to hit the under, but can also win.

    Begin: Moments that Matter

    A strong media experience is often defined by a few key moments that significantly contribute to the media being viewed. In lieu of a complete assessment, I’ll also be recording my thoughts on the moments that mattered most to me in any given experience, and why. These won’t always be positive, as often times the moment that matters most can be one that most takes one out of an experience, while other times, it will be what defines the experience.