W – PHI -1.5 @ IND (-115) The bench for the 76ers really came through for me on this one. However, I think I’ll stay away from preseason NBA action as it’s wildly unpredictable and nobody is really trying.
L – USC -3 vs. ORE (-105) Staying away from college football. Who am I? This was super out of character and I regret ever placing the bet. Even if it did hit, watching this supposed “Conference Championship” game felt very icky and sloppy. #neveragain.
L –Josh Allen to Pass for Over 2.5 TDs (+225, Half-Unit) The refs and bad game script stole this one from us. I’m not sure if I’m more upset about the back to back flags on touchdown passes in the third quarter, or the rushing touchdowns that vultured this bet. Alas, this game also closed a futures bet for the Bills to win the AFC East, so there is a silver lining.
W –Josh Allen to Rush for Over 32.5 Yards (-110, Half-Unit) Phew! Won this one by exactly half a yard. These are the bets your cherish, as after hitting 33 yards, Allen did not have another rush attempt. Thankfully, the Bills also inserted Matt Barkley in at the end of the game, nullifying the chance of a kneel-down taking away the needed rush yardage.
W –BUF -.5 @ DEN /IND -1 vs. HOU (-110) Buffalo closed handily, with the game never feeling in doubt. My only regret was not realizing how important this game was for the standings and placing more standalone money on the Bills here. The Colts beat the Texans off another last play-fumble. I’ll take it, but there’s some cracks in the armor for the Colts for sure.
W – Bills to Win AFC East (+125) A closed future bet upon the result of this week’s games. The Bills clinched and so did a bet I placed in early August. Seems obvious now, but back then the Jets and Cam Newton were seen with much more optimism. At this point, the Bills are the clear deserving winner of this division.
L – Teddy Bridgewater to Pass for Over 269.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit) A very rough game for Bridgewater, I never had an inkling of doubt that this bet would hit.
W –GB -2 vs. CAR / TB 0 @ ATL (-110) The Packers won handily, and the Bucs were a part of another classic Falcons collapse. You love to see it.
L –JAX +19.5 @ BAL / NE +8 @ MIA (-110) My underdog parlay. This didn’t account for Stephon Gilmore going down for the Pats which unlocked the Dolphins offense. The Jaguars didn’t have enough in garbage time, actually making more mistakes than really needed and blowing this one completely. Luckily, these two were paired together, and we consolidated the losses here.
L –SEA -5.5 @ WAS (-105)
W –WAS +6 vs. SEA (-110) So, I am an idiot that doesn’t check my bet history before placing more bets. If the Seahawks scored a single point more I would’ve somehow middled these bets and come away with a push/win. However we go 1-1 off a very silly lesson learned. The game itself was very ugly (as expected) and I do feel that not having Alex Smith was a very tough hand to be dealt for Washington as I think that would’ve been the difference.
W –MIA -0.5 vs. NE Second Half (-110) This was a live bet as soon as Gilmore limped off the field. He truly enables the Patriots to play their true grind-it-out style of dirty football. This masks Cam Newton’s inefficiencies, but with him gone the Dolphins were able to unlock their offense and ran away with the second half.
W –ATL vs. TB Over 24 Points Second Half (-120) This was a bet on the Falcons collapsing in the second half. They did. I only wish I took the Bucs to win the second half as well instead of settling on this proxy bet.
L –LAR vs. NYJ Over 7.5 Points First Quarter (-115) My logic here is that the Rams should blow out the Jets, which should spell an early score. The Jets are also notorious for scoring on their first drive. While the latter point held true, the Rams aren’t moving the ball as fluidly as I predicted which lost this bet by half a point. Maybe I should stick to the Ravens/Chiefs against bad teams for bets like this moving forward.
L – LAR -11 vs. NYJ Second Half (-120) The Rams wouldn’t lose to the Jets right? There’s no way, of course they’ll come back in the second half. Dammit Rams. A continuation of last year’s lessons, don’t bet on the Rams or bad teams (may be redundant here).
Push –KC -3 @ NO (-110) Logic here was that the Chiefs have been playing every team very close. However, in this case, the Saints got a bit too close. Alas, the importance of buying the crucial half point past the 3 rears it’s ugly head here. We’ll take the push and fight another day.
W –AZ -.5 vs. PHI / NO +9 vs. KC (-110) In the battle of Bird-based playoff contenders, I found the Cardinals to be less faulty. The Eagles are riding a dual-threat rookie quarterback and receivers I’ve never heard of. The Cardinals have an established dual-threat quarterback and receivers I have heard of. As such, edge Cardinals, and this came to fruition. The Saints kept it close, and closed this bet for us.
W – TEN -3 vs. DET / CLE 0 @ NYG (-120) The Titans closed easily as predicted against a completely outmatched and out-motivated Lions squad. New York failed to generate much of any offense after flailing on fourth down in the first half.
L – Baker Mayfield to Rush over 20.5 Yards (+225, Half-Unit)
? – PIT -13 @ CIN (+100) This one is pending the Monday Night result.
That puts as at 9.5-6.5-1 for this week, with one pending. This puts us at 96.5-71.5-3 (this includes Thursday Night Football’s bets as well) for the year. As you may be able to tell, I’m off from work for the rest of the year hence the increased bet volume. Expect this until the New Year, especially with the NBA and another couple weeks of NFL coming up.
L –DAL +3 @ CIN / NYG +8.5 vs. AZ (-110) Giants didn’t show up to play, and the Cardinals got their get-right game. I think Daniel Jones return actually disrupted the Giants momentum, and the loss was momentous. Dallas easily covered given the talent disparity between the teams. I should’ve trusted my gut and taken Cowboys straight up.
W – TEN -1.5 @ JAX / KC -1.5 @ MIA (-110) Two playoff bound teams against teams they should beat if they are truly contenders. The Chiefs continued to toy with their opponents, and not truly put away the game until much later than seems reasonable. However, the suspense was rewarded with an early win.
W – GB -1.5 @ DET / CHI +8 @ vs. HOU (-110) Chicago covered their side of the bet handily, destroying a Texans team that lacked playmaking on the offensive end of the ball. The Lions activated divisional shenanigan in the first half, but have that tendency to fall apart after a competent first half. The Packers really picked things up, and despite the opportunities presented to the Lions, they couldn’t convert.
L –NO -1 @ PHI / TB -.5 vs. MIN (-110) Tampa kept it somewhat close, but ultimately pulled off the win at home against a streaky Vikings team.
L – GB @ DET -1.5 / NO -1 @ PHI (-110) A combo of the above, I felt confident about both. This is what I get for underestimating… Jalen Hurts. Safe bets aren’t so safe after all. I’ll be more weary of stacking bets moving forward.
L – ATL -2.5 @ LAC (-115) This line went all the way up to Atlanta +2.5 with a brief moment at a pick’em. I’m flummoxed to what impacted this line so significantly over the weekend, but my early week bet was looking detrimental. Matt Ryan threw away this game, as inching forward and hitting a field goal would’ve sealed the game. However, a late interception and the Chargers somehow not ending in their typical cursed fashion lost this bet. There’s some cold comfort here, as even at +2.5 this bet still would’ve lost.
W – LV vs. IND Over 51.5 (-110) Aside from one end zone turnover, the first half looked promising for this bet. The Colts have unlocked Jonathan Taylor (by actually putting him into the game) and Rivers’ risk has been mitigated with the strong run game. A great combination of developing offense and continued defensive ineptitude lead to an easy over.
W – SF First Quarter -0.5 vs. WAS (+120) My thought here was that this would be a defense focused game script. However, I trusted Kyle Shannahan’s scripted offensive plays at the start of the game to get something going early. While I don’t believe this start will dictate the ending of the game, my gut turned out to be correct on this one.
W –WAS -.5 @ SF (+130, Half-Unit) Even though the first quarter ended with zero points for Washington, their offense showed their talent in the second quarter. A handful of turnovers and brilliant play from Chase young led to 13 unanswered Washington points. From there, the defenses really dominated this game and the Washington Football team put themselves in first place of their division.
? – CLE +7 vs. BAL / BUF +3.5 vs. PIT (-110)
With one bet still pending, we end the week at 5.5-4. On top of this, we have to give ourselves credit for the Bills closing our teaser on Monday Night Football last week. For the season, this puts us at 85-65-2.
W – NYG +3 @ WAS (-110) The logic of “take the points” a resounding success as this was indeed a defensive-focused wet noodle fight. Poorly timed turnovers impacted both of these teams. I think the infusion of Alex Smith midway through this game gave Washington an unexpected boost. However, the luster quickly wore off, and a couple interceptions from him late in the game sealed this bet.
L – SEA -3 @ BUF (+100) Over indexed on the Seahawks, this proved costly over two bets. Seattle is 8-1-1 ATS when traveling to the east coast, and the Bills have looked dreadful the past few weeks. However, they played up to the Seahawks and comfortably cruised through the game.
W –MIN-3 vs. DET (-120) Dalvin Cook is just too good. Detroit had no answers, and Kenny Golladay’s absence could be felt across the Lions offense. This Vikings team is effective as long as Cook is in the lineup. I expect their lines to increase in the coming weeks.
L – CHI +5.5 @ TEN (-110) There is nothing more painful to watch in the NFL than the Bears offense. The ineptitude of the rushing game is astounding, I’ve never seen a back do less with more than David Montgomery. The Titans didn’t look like world beaters against the Bears defense, but Nick Foles just couldn’t propel drives, leading to a convincing loss.
L – KC -4.5 vs. CAR / TEN+.5 vs. CHI (-110) The Titans covered easily, and the Chiefs looked primed to follow suit. However, a late game surge from the Panthers in a valiant comeback attempt and a great final defensive stand from Carolina on the final drive, equaled a close failure to cover. CMC is back, and he hasn’t missed a beat.
L – AZ -6 vs. MIA (-105) I guess Tua is the real deal. The Miami defense did just enough to stifle a last minute surge from the Cardinals, and covered the bet.
L – PIT-14 @ DAL (-105) This was deep into the chase. There were so many warning signs about this one – the look past game, new quarterback boost, etc. A silly loss that could’ve been prevented if I only took a moment to think about it instead of embracing the chase. Speaking of chasing…
W – NO +11.5 @ TB / HOU-.5 @ JAX (-110) Easy win as the Saints rolled and the Texans grind one out against the Jags.
L – BAL +7 @ IND / NO @ TB +1.5 (-110) Chasing is very bad.
L – Tom Brady to Pass Over 2.5 TDs (+160, Half Unit) Chasing is very bad.
L – Tom Brady to Pass Over 3.5 TDs (+450, Half Unit) Chasing is very bad.
L – Antonio Brown to Receive Over 39.5 Yards (-115, Half Unit) Chasing is very bad.
L – Rob Gronkowski to Score a Touchdown (+150, Half Unit) Chasing is very bad.
L – Mike Evans to Score a Touchdown (+100, Half Unit) Do. Not. Chase. You’d think that I’d at least sprinkle my chase onto both sides. However, I truly thought the Bucs would win this game by three to six points with at least 30 points of scoring from each side. My narrative was basically the opposite of reality.
L –SEA +3.5 @ BUF / NE -1 @ NYJ (-110) Seattle cooked this bet.
This week our record was 3-9.5, bringing us to a season total of 52.5-43-2. This week featured the sloppiest of chases and mistakes that I thought I had purged from my character. Onto Week Ten.
W-GB-3 @ HOU (-105) I placed this bet as I cleared my mind on a morning walk. In that tranquility, I realized how incredibly overvalued the Texans were here. Home field is basically null this year, and Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss bodes extremely well for the Packers winning. Above all, the Texans are terribly coached, typically requiring heroics from Deshaun Watson to provide any kind of spark. A nice easy win to start the Week Seven slate.
Push – CLE-3 @ CIN (-130) This felt sketchy as the game progressed starting with the dreadful first quarter start for Baker Mayfield (in which he went without a completion). Even though the Browns made the miraculous score in the waning moments of the game. The owner of the ‘Double Doink” adds to his legacy by missing the extra point, costing us the cover. We settle for a push. For those who placed this bet right before the game, Parkey provided a bad beat.
W – CAR+7.5 @ NO (-120) D.J. Moore showed why he had a second round ADP in fantasy this year. He was all over the field, keeping drives alive with his heroics, and getting the Panthers in the end zone. They safely cover, and actually looked like they had a chance to win at several points in the game. I really like this Panthers team, and I feel like they’re a few pieces away from seriously contending under Matt Rhule.
W – TEN/SF+7.5/+9 @ PIT/NE (-110) The Titans were down big early, however the Steelers only scoring three points in the second half, along with some turnovers gave the Titans the opening they needed. However, they couldn’t seal the deal late in the game, with Stephen Gostkowski actually costing the Titans the game tying field goal here. Luckily, with the seven points we safely cover that side of the teaser. The Patriots never had a league in this game, as the 49ers scored on the opening drive, and never looked back. San Francisco’s offense, led by the varied rushing attack (get well soon Jeff Wilson Jr.) looked light years ahead of the Patriots defense. On defense, the 49ers dominated both Patriots quarterbacks, taking the ball away four times. This is likely a turning point game for both teams, the Patriots looking more likely to rebuild, and the 49ers pushing to stay in playoff contention.
W –DET/LAC+8/-1.5 @ ATL/JAX (-110) Detroit kept it close for the entirety of the game. While they didn’t take advantage of the Falcons secondary as one would expect, the plus eight never felt in doubt. Even better, they keep the legend (tragedy) of Atlanta alive, winning the game in the final moments despite the Falcons having a game-winning kick situation. The Chargers are truly cursed, from missed kicks to a blocked punt scoop-n-score, the Chargers do not make it easy by any means. Justin Herbert was viewed with skepticism by many in the last draft, but he’s turned out to be Patrick Mahomes on a cursed team. There were a couple mental lapses in this game for the Chargers, however the Tanksonville stank overcame the Chargers curse and Jacksonville pulled out the win.
W-TB – 2.5 @ LV (-120) The Raiders struck first, but Tom Brady was evoking vintage connections with Rob Gronkowski, fueling the Buccaneers in this game. From there, the defense and run game (along with Mike Evans drawing an inordinate number of flags), allowed Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the Raiders without much issue.
W – KC/BUF-4.5/-2 @ DEN/NYJ (-110) I took this due to favorable line movements occurring that I didn’t get in on earlier. This was a hasty double-down that felt akin to an options trader trying to chase their losses. Buffalo covered the above, so this wasn’t in doubt. However, they didn’t make it comfortable.
The snow caught me slightly off guard, but the Chiefs should be able to outgun a young Denver team right? Absolutely, it looked like the Broncos were the ones that were uncomfortable on their home field. The Chiefs defense forced several turnovers, and the offense continues to be in championship form. An expected win for the defending champions.
W – KC/BUF/SEA-3/-5.5/+3.5 @ NYJ/DEN/AZ (+150) Buffalo won with the only scores being six field goals. What a day. Luckily the Jets are the Jets and this somehow covered. The Chiefs easily covered the three points and then some. Chad Henne even scored! The Seahawks offense took advantage of the Cardinals early on, but Arizona kept it tight in the end, winning by three (see more below).
W – Russell Wilson Longest Pass Over 43.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit) “Let Russ Cook”, a motto bequeath upon this Seattle offense due to a seemingly innocuous preseason comment. Lockette also took his turn at elite Seattle pass catcher this game and sealed a 47 yard TD pass in the first half.
W – Russell Wilson Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (+250, Half-Unit) The Cardinals play a very fast defense, but that can lead to very quick broken plays. A few of these occurred in the first half leading Wilson to 56 first half rushing yards. Everything in the second half was gravy.
W – AZ+3.5 vs. SEA (-115) Logic – Seattle is always in tight games; action – greed. I was hoping the result of the Sunday night game would be within a field goal either way. In reality, the Cardinals had the right idea with an end zone interception to start the fourth quarter, but gave the ball right back to Seattle. This game was very back and forth at the end. In what ultimately ended in overtime, Arizona sealed the game with a field goal, covering this bet. I’m super happy that the logic here held and we got to double dip. Classic divisional matchup.
This was an exemplary week, ending 9-0-1, we can only hope every week has a result like this. Overall, we’re at a season total of 42.5-28-2. Let’s do this again next week!!
1) BAL SU vs. NYJ, PHI -1 @ BOS, DAL SU DET, SAS SU vs. CLE (+217)The Spurs are not what they used to be. I thought with plenty of rest and a fully healthy Murray, that the Spurs were a lock at home. They got in a hole early, had to come back in the fourth, and ran out of gas.
I was nervous about the Sixers, especially with Hortford out, but Embiid pulled through with the win. Without Marcus Smart it was hard for the Celtics to stop him.
The Ravens rolled as expected, and the Mavs took care of the Pistons in Mexico.