Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 9, 2020)

  1. W – NYG +3 @ WAS (-110)
    The logic of “take the points” a resounding success as this was indeed a defensive-focused wet noodle fight. Poorly timed turnovers impacted both of these teams. I think the infusion of Alex Smith midway through this game gave Washington an unexpected boost. However, the luster quickly wore off, and a couple interceptions from him late in the game sealed this bet.
  2. L – SEA -3 @ BUF (+100)
    Over indexed on the Seahawks, this proved costly over two bets. Seattle is 8-1-1 ATS when traveling to the east coast, and the Bills have looked dreadful the past few weeks. However, they played up to the Seahawks and comfortably cruised through the game.
  3. W – MIN-3 vs. DET (-120)
    Dalvin Cook is just too good. Detroit had no answers, and Kenny Golladay’s absence could be felt across the Lions offense. This Vikings team is effective as long as Cook is in the lineup. I expect their lines to increase in the coming weeks.
  4. L – CHI +5.5 @ TEN (-110)
    There is nothing more painful to watch in the NFL than the Bears offense. The ineptitude of the rushing game is astounding, I’ve never seen a back do less with more than David Montgomery. The Titans didn’t look like world beaters against the Bears defense, but Nick Foles just couldn’t propel drives, leading to a convincing loss.
  5. L – KC -4.5 vs. CAR / TEN+.5 vs. CHI (-110)
    The Titans covered easily, and the Chiefs looked primed to follow suit. However, a late game surge from the Panthers in a valiant comeback attempt and a great final defensive stand from Carolina on the final drive, equaled a close failure to cover. CMC is back, and he hasn’t missed a beat.
  6. L – AZ -6 vs. MIA (-105)
    I guess Tua is the real deal. The Miami defense did just enough to stifle a last minute surge from the Cardinals, and covered the bet.
  7. L – PIT-14 @ DAL (-105)
    This was deep into the chase. There were so many warning signs about this one – the look past game, new quarterback boost, etc. A silly loss that could’ve been prevented if I only took a moment to think about it instead of embracing the chase. Speaking of chasing…
  8. WNO +11.5 @ TB / HOU-.5 @ JAX (-110)
    Easy win as the Saints rolled and the Texans grind one out against the Jags.
  9. LBAL +7 @ IND / NO @ TB +1.5 (-110)
    Chasing is very bad.
  10. LTom Brady to Pass Over 2.5 TDs (+160, Half Unit)
    Chasing is very bad.
  11. LTom Brady to Pass Over 3.5 TDs (+450, Half Unit)
    Chasing is very bad.
  12. L – Antonio Brown to Receive Over 39.5 Yards (-115, Half Unit)
    Chasing is very bad.
  13. L – Rob Gronkowski to Score a Touchdown (+150, Half Unit)
    Chasing is very bad.
  14. L – Mike Evans to Score a Touchdown (+100, Half Unit)
    Do. Not. Chase.
    You’d think that I’d at least sprinkle my chase onto both sides. However, I truly thought the Bucs would win this game by three to six points with at least 30 points of scoring from each side. My narrative was basically the opposite of reality.
  15. L – SEA +3.5 @ BUF / NE -1 @ NYJ (-110)
    Seattle cooked this bet.

This week our record was 3-9.5, bringing us to a season total of  52.5-43-2. This week featured the sloppiest of chases and mistakes that I thought I had purged from my character. Onto Week Ten.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 7, 2020)

  1. W- GB-3 @ HOU (-105)
    I placed this bet as I cleared my mind on a morning walk. In that tranquility, I realized how incredibly overvalued the Texans were here. Home field is basically null this year, and Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss bodes extremely well for the Packers winning. Above all, the Texans are terribly coached, typically requiring heroics from Deshaun Watson to provide any kind of spark. A nice easy win to start the Week Seven slate.
  2. Push – CLE-3 @ CIN (-130)
    This felt sketchy as the game progressed starting with the dreadful first quarter start for Baker Mayfield (in which he went without a completion). Even though the Browns made the miraculous score in the waning moments of the game. The owner of the ‘Double Doink” adds to his legacy by missing the extra point, costing us the cover. We settle for a push. For those who placed this bet right before the game, Parkey provided a bad beat.
  3. W – CAR+7.5 @ NO (-120)
    D.J. Moore showed why he had a second round ADP in fantasy this year. He was all over the field, keeping drives alive with his heroics, and getting the Panthers in the end zone. They safely cover, and actually looked like they had a chance to win at several points in the game. I really like this Panthers team, and I feel like they’re a few pieces away from seriously contending under Matt Rhule.
  4. W – TEN/SF+7.5/+9 @ PIT/NE (-110)
    The Titans were down big early, however the Steelers only scoring three points in the second half, along with some turnovers gave the Titans the opening they needed. However, they couldn’t seal the deal late in the game, with Stephen Gostkowski actually costing the Titans the game tying field goal here. Luckily, with the seven points we safely cover that side of the teaser.
    The Patriots never had a league in this game, as the 49ers scored on the opening drive, and never looked back. San Francisco’s offense, led by the varied rushing attack (get well soon Jeff Wilson Jr.) looked light years ahead of the Patriots defense. On defense, the 49ers dominated both Patriots quarterbacks, taking the ball away four times. This is likely a turning point game for both teams, the Patriots looking more likely to rebuild, and the 49ers pushing to stay in playoff contention.
  5. W – DET/LAC+8/-1.5 @ ATL/JAX (-110)
    Detroit kept it close for the entirety of the game. While they didn’t take advantage of the Falcons secondary as one would expect, the plus eight never felt in doubt. Even better, they keep the legend (tragedy) of Atlanta alive, winning the game in the final moments despite the Falcons having a game-winning kick situation.
    The Chargers are truly cursed, from missed kicks to a blocked punt scoop-n-score, the Chargers do not make it easy by any means. Justin Herbert was viewed with skepticism by many in the last draft, but he’s turned out to be Patrick Mahomes on a cursed team. There were a couple mental lapses in this game for the Chargers, however the Tanksonville stank overcame the Chargers curse and Jacksonville pulled out the win.
  6. W- TB – 2.5 @ LV (-120)
    The Raiders struck first, but Tom Brady was evoking vintage connections with Rob Gronkowski, fueling the Buccaneers in this game. From there, the defense and run game (along with Mike Evans drawing an inordinate number of flags), allowed Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the Raiders without much issue.
  7. W – KC/BUF-4.5/-2 @ DEN/NYJ (-110)
    I took this due to favorable line movements occurring that I didn’t get in on earlier. This was a hasty double-down that felt akin to an options trader trying to chase their losses. Buffalo covered the above, so this wasn’t in doubt. However, they didn’t make it comfortable.

    The snow caught me slightly off guard, but the Chiefs should be able to outgun a young Denver team right? Absolutely, it looked like the Broncos were the ones that were uncomfortable on their home field. The Chiefs defense forced several turnovers, and the offense continues to be in championship form. An expected win for the defending champions.
  8. WKC/BUF/SEA-3/-5.5/+3.5 @ NYJ/DEN/AZ (+150)
    Buffalo won with the only scores being six field goals. What a day. Luckily the Jets are the Jets and this somehow covered.
    The Chiefs easily covered the three points and then some. Chad Henne even scored!
    The Seahawks offense took advantage of the Cardinals early on, but Arizona kept it tight in the end, winning by three (see more below).
  9. W – Russell Wilson Longest Pass Over 43.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
    “Let Russ Cook”, a motto bequeath upon this Seattle offense due to a seemingly innocuous preseason comment. Lockette also took his turn at elite Seattle pass catcher this game and sealed a 47 yard TD pass in the first half.
  10. W – Russell Wilson Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (+250, Half-Unit)
    The Cardinals play a very fast defense, but that can lead to very quick broken plays. A few of these occurred in the first half leading Wilson to 56 first half rushing yards. Everything in the second half was gravy.
  11. W – AZ+3.5 vs. SEA (-115)
    Logic – Seattle is always in tight games; action – greed. I was hoping the result of the Sunday night game would be within a field goal either way. In reality, the Cardinals had the right idea with an end zone interception to start the fourth quarter, but gave the ball right back to Seattle. This game was very back and forth at the end. In what ultimately ended in overtime, Arizona sealed the game with a field goal, covering this bet. I’m super happy that the logic here held and we got to double dip. Classic divisional matchup.

This was an exemplary week, ending  9-0-1, we can only hope every week has a result like this. Overall, we’re at a season total of 42.5-28-2. Let’s do this again next week!!

Bet Review (NBA – Week of Dec. 9, 2019)

1) BAL SU vs. NYJ, PHI -1 @ BOS, DAL SU DET, SAS SU vs. CLE (+217)The Spurs are not what they used to be. I thought with plenty of rest and a fully healthy Murray, that the Spurs were a lock at home. They got in a hole early, had to come back in the fourth, and ran out of gas.

I was nervous about the Sixers, especially with Hortford out, but Embiid pulled through with the win. Without Marcus Smart it was hard for the Celtics to stop him.

The Ravens rolled as expected, and the Mavs took care of the Pistons in Mexico.

Bet Review (NFL Week 13, 2019)

1) NO -.5 @ ATL, GB -.5 @ NYG (-110)These seemed like low spreads for good teams against bad teams. Both had moments where the game got tight, but both showed why they are contenders for the NFC. The Saints were able to stave off late game heroics from Younghoe Koo, and Rodgers finally showed what everyone was expecting in the preseason from the Packers offense.

2) CLE @ PIT Under 39 (-110)The Steelers defense came through as scoring was stifled in the 4th quarter. Baker struggled on the road, and as Tomlin said “Hodges won’t kill us”. Against bad offenses, I like the Steelers going under as low-scoring/grindy games are their only path to victory with this roster.

3) KC -4 vs. OAK, CIN +9.5 vs. NYJ (-110)The Bengals didn’t try to hide that they were going for the win by re-insertimg Dalton into the lineup against a spotty Jets team at home. I believed that the Jets would be able to keep it close, but the defense looked bad on the road, and Darnold was unable to produce for most of the game.

I thought that the Raiders would play a bit harder after getting nearly shut out by the Jets last week, but it was another down performance against the Chiefs. What I thought would be a vulnerable secondary took advantage of Derek Carr, and a sloppy special teams play early set a negative tone for the Riaders from the start.

4) GB SU @ NYG, PHI SU @ MIA, BOS SU @ NYK, ORL SU vs. GSW (+162)

The Eagles really needed this game to stay ahead in the NFC East. Despite an early lead, the defense fell apart against a Dolpins team with nothing to lose.

The Celtics bounced back in New York, pulling out the win in the fourth quarter. The script was similar for Orlando who let the Warriors hang around, but ultimately pulled out the win.

5) PIT +8.5 vs. CLE, NE +3 @ HOU (-110)

The Steelers hit the under and ground out this game out which safely covered even their initial spread. Things went even better than expected for the Steelers, and there was little doubt throughout the game that this would be missed.

The same cannot be said for the Patriots who failed to even stay in competition throughout the game in Houston. The Brown, Gordon, and I’d even say Demariyus Thomas releases are now coming back to bite the Pats, whose best receiver was easily James White. Sanu is playing at an even lower level than when he was in Atlanta, and the two rookie wide receivers are dropping catches at a torrid rate. I’m still surprised the Pats lost, as this Texans team has been very inconsistent this season. Even in this game, their run game looked poor, but Watson was able to take advantage of softness (some of which was injury-related) and the game never seemed competitive.

I don’t think this changes anything for the Pats, and I still love them over bad teams.

Bet Review (NBA – Week of Nov. 25, 2019)

1) BOS SU vs. BYK, TOR SU vs. NYK, LAL SU @ NOP (+110) The Celtics and Raptors pulled through as expected. The energy in Boston alone was enough to win that game, and the Raptors controlled the game from the 2nd quarter onward.

The narrative in my mind in regards to AD’s return to NOLA had a slow start. Coupled with the Pelicans shooting at a torid 80%+ rate from 3 had the Lakers down double digits for most of the game up to the fourth quarter. Anthony Davis needing to go back to the locker room also created a breath-holding moment. Fortunately, Kuzma shot well from 3, and the Lakers bigs bullied their way into enough open shots and free throws gutting out a closer than expected win.

2) LAC SU @ SAS, UTA SU @ MEM, MIA SU vs. GSW (+150)I felt like Conley wouldn’t lose to the Grizzlies twice and with Butler coming back, that was just an odds booster. Kawhi really let me down here, and I’m surprised that the Spurs were able to shut down the Clippers offense with their wealth of weapons. I thought that the Clippers had a chance to pull it back in the fourth, but two quick 3s from the Spurs extinguished that thought quickly. I still believe in the Clippers against bad teams, but the return game narrative and the entire day after the Thanksgiving break being wonky cost me here.

3) BOS SU @ BYK, TOR SU @ ORL, DAL SU @ PHX (+112)The Celtics in the early game underwhelmed significantly. They looked lost on defense against the injury-ridden Nets, and their terrible shooting from 3 hampered any semblance of a comeback attempt. Two other factors, the day after a break league-wide and the recent memory of a defeat on Wednesday fuled heavily on the Nets here.

The Raptors handled business against a undermanned Orlando team as expected from the veteran squad. It will be interesting to see how Orlando bounces back once Gordon and Vucevic return.

While the first half was tight, and the third quarter had some swings, untimatley the talent in Dallas won out with an explosion in the fourth (if only the Clippers could’ve done this against the Spurs).

Two bad breaks in inopportune spots led to losing out on both Friday parlays.