Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 8, 2020)

  1. W – CLE vs. LV Under 52.5 (-110)
    The 50 mph gusts in the first half were a good sign, and a missed field goal and seemingly anemic offense through the same period also bode well. Red zone inefficiency and gusts sealed this one as an early win.
  2. L – GB -.5 vs. MIN/TEN +.5 @ CIN(-110)
    Two surprising upsets for two contenders. Lucky to have these teased together if I’m being honest. Green Bay was much more in this game, and had a chance to tie the game late. However, the Titans still look to be hungover from last week, and the Bungles truly played up to them.
  3. L – BAL -4 vs. PIT (-110)
    Pittsburgh is good. Mistakes from Lamar Jackson cost the Ravens what should’ve been a much more competitive game.
  4. L – DET vs. IND +10 /MIA+10 vs. LAR (-120)
    Betting on the Lions only bring pain. Never again, please, never let me do it again. Really let down that this fell on the opposite end of a raucous Miami effort to net Tua his first win as a starter.
  5. W – KC vs. NYJ -13.5/BUF+2 vs. NE (-110)
    The Chiefs took care of business and the Bills squeaked out a close one against a scrappy Patriots team. It wasn’t certain against New England, but it pulled through.
  6. L – NE Moneyline (+180, Half Unit)
    This one was close, Cam lost it for us. I was thinking this would be a “kitchen sink” game for the Pats, and it was. However, the Pats failed to execute as needed to win.
  7. W – SEA +3 vs. SF/ LV +8.5 @ CLE (-110)
    Las Vegas looked to be the better team all day, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. In gusty conditions, Josh Jacobs and Devonta Booker thrived. The 49ers had a terrible outing, with the Seahawks easily covering the three points, winning by a blowout.
  8. W – DEN +3 vs. LAC (+100)
    Denver cannot sustain a drive. I thought this would be a game where Justin Herbert is outmatched on the road, but he looked to be in full control the entire game up until the fourth quarter. In classic Chargers fashion there was some late game heroics/chicanery which led to a Broncos win. Very thankful that the extra point went through so that this bet was safely secured outside of overtime.
  9. L – Carson Wentz Longest Pass Over 37.5 Yards @ DAL (+100, Half-Unit)
  10. L – Carson Wentz Over 30.5 Rushing Yards Yards @ DAL (+200, Half-Unit)
  11. W – CHI +10 vs. NO/PHI -5 vs. DAL (-110)
    Chicago doesn’t make it easy, really the entire NFC North has been a pain to bet on/against today. However, they ultimately pulled through when it mattered, as the ten points was more than sufficient regardless of the overtime outcome. In fact, I found myself cheering for a tie. Slim win for the Saints, sure! A paper tiger for sure from my view though until Brees can get some receiving talent back.
    The Eagles looked terrible in the first half, failing to protect Wentz on nearly every play.

On the day we hit 5-4.5 getting us to 49-33.5-2 for the season.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 6, 2020)

Not the best week by any means, I was was allured by early lines on what ended up to be very obvious trap games that sharps picked up throughout the week. This week could’ve been much worse depending on how I paired teasers, and this will act as a lesson to be more thoughtful with how I put those together next week:

  1. L – GB -1.5 @ TB (-115)
    This was the biggest trap game of the week, with Fox setting up the undefeated Aaron Rodgers and the Packers against the Tompa Bay Bucs. While the game started as planned for the Packers with ten quick points, Rodgers decided to celebrate with an ephemeral pelvic thrust, clearly losing the favor of the football gods in one motion. From there, Tampa scored 38 unanswered points as the Packers offense failed to generate much of anything. The Packers pass rush looked anemic, and the offense is devoid of talent when Adams (and to an extent Robert Tonyan) isn’t on the field.
  2. L – CLE +3.5 @ PIT (-110)
    I regretted this one early on in the week. The more I saw news about Bakers ribs, and the amount of buzz in Pittsburgh in regards to a Myles Garrett revenge narrative, I knew this wouldn’t be a game where the Steelers played down to their opposition. This game got out of hand within the first quarter, and was an easy add to the loss column early on.
  3. W – HOU @ TEN -3 (-125)
    This was a win in butt-clenching fashion after an excellent first quarter. The Texans have plenty of fight in them, but their coaching holds back an otherwise talented roster. The Titans pulled off some late game heroics, and King Derrick Henry reigned over the overtime period with conviction.
  4. L – NE -2 vs. DEN / DAL +7 (-110)
    Scam Newton strikes again, failing to move the ball against a Denver defense that has been inconsistent this year. The Patriots were able to contain the Broncos offense, holding them to six field goals (what a day for Brandon McManus fantasy owners!) but the lack of any offense sunk this bet. Get well soon Cam.

    The absolute worst part of this bet is that I made it while on a flight. For whatever reason, I thought this was really cool, but it was also impulsive. I’m glad that I’ll no longer have this curiosity in my life.
  5. W – BAL -1.5 @ PHI / MIA @ NYJ -2.5 (-110)
    Another tight game in Baltimore coming down to a stop on a two point conversion. While Baltimore still could’ve sealed the deal in OT, I’m glad they were able to close it out in regulation and save me some grief. The Jets are just in a tier of their own in terms of poor play, and even when their defense forced a couple turnovers, Flacco couldn’t generate any points. An easy win, and I regret only taking the fish in a tease.
  6. W – SF +9 vs. LAR / KC +1.5 @ BUF (-110)
    The 49ers got their get right game, and the Rams were contained for the entire game. The scheming was the magic here, with quick passes largely nullifying Aaron Donald. San Francisco struggled in the second half, which makes me nervous to bet on them moving forward, especially with their remaining schedule being the toughest remaining.
    Kansas City and Buffalo had a fairly messy game in the rain. However, the Chiefs managed just enough magic to make this one exciting, but the result was never in doubt.
  7. W – Kyler Murray to Rush Over 42.5 Yards (-120)
    Murray rushed early and often and easily covered this bet.
  8. L – Kyler Murray to Complete Over 26.5 Passes (+100, Half Unit)
    I suppose Murray just didn’t have to pass in this game to win. However, 9/24 isn’t becoming of a franchise quarterback against a battered defense.

Overall for the week, we ended down a bit at 4-4.5 which brings us to a season total of 33.5-28-1.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 5, 2020)

  1. L – DAL -8 vs. NYG (-110)
    This bet looked good until Dak Prescott was forced from the game. Ultimately the Cowboys won, but bad break for this bet. Hoping for a speedy recovery for the franchise-tagged quarterback.
  2. WMIA @ SF Over 24.5 First Half (-110)
    As a 49er fan this one did not go as intended. I imagined this one going the way of San Francisco early, instead we saw more Fitzmagic off of bad 49er turnovers. The bet secured, but there’s sadness in my heart.
  3. WLV +19.5 @ KC / CAR +8 @ ATL (-110)
    The Raiders actually won outright, which comes as a surprise even with the line moving from 13.5 when we took this teaser to 11 at close. The Chiefs defense looked tired, likely due to their wonky schedule from the previous week. Derek Carr’s outburst after last week’s loss looks to have worked as he secures only his third win against the Chiefs in his career.
    The Panthers pile onto Atlanta’s woes, winning the game outright by seven points. My only regret is not taking a moneyline parlay here which would’ve resulted in much better odds.
  4. ? – NO (-1.5) vs. LAC / SEA (-1) vs. MIN (-110)
    Pending Monday game. We only pushed on half, could still be a half win.
  5. L – PHI @ PIT Under 49 / CAR @ ATL Over 48.5 / CIN @ BAL Over 45.5 (+170)
    The battle of the Keystone State did not result in a low scoring ham-fisted bar fight. Rather, it was a high scoring shootout not representative of the teams’ defenses.
    Carolina didn’t need to score much as the Panthers totally stymied the Falcons scoring despite Calvin Ridley being able to generate bunches of yardage. This game also fell short of expectations.
    Lastly, the Bungles failed to score at all until the fourth quarter, and the Ravens had a couple key stalls in the red zone. Overall, this bet failed on all legs, and I’d describe this as ‘taking a big bath’ in Accounting terms.
  6. W – AZ +1 vs. NYJ/PIT -1 vs. PHI (-110)
    Arizona played the terrible New York Jets featuring a washed Joe Flacco, and Pittsburgh was able to outgun an injured Eagles offensive roster. I was quite surprised by the Eagles being able to score so much against the Steelers. For now, I’ll chalk this up to Pittsburgh playing down to it’s opposition and not worry about the offense for now.
  7. L – Jimmy Butler to Record a Triple Double (+245, Half-Unit)
    If the Heat do anything, it’ll be through Jimmy Butler was my logic here. He’s been sensational thus far in the series, and win or loss this trend should hold. Unfortunately, the whole Miami team fell a bit flat tonight and Butler fell a few assists and rebounds short of hitting this target.
  8. W – Anthony Davis to Record a Double Double (-110, Half-Unit)
    I personally think the odds should’ve been plus here given Davis’ perpetual lumbering every time his step needs to be slightly adjusted. However, any minutes he does play will be very active (it is the finals). He secured the bet midway through the fourth quarter.
  9. L – Russell Wilson Longest Pass Over 43.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
    Wilson had a final drive completion to DK Metcalf that fell four yards short of closing this bet. The rain didn’t help the cause, and the Vikings really only let Wilson have one half to pass as their defense held stout for much of the game.
  10. W – Russell Wilson Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Half-Unit)
    Wilson hit 35 rushing yards in the first half. There’s something about primetime games that activate the ‘Gotta make something out of nothing’ mentality that gets quarterbacks legs moving. Wilson especially is very adept using his legs to pick up yardage and this was a comfortable hit.

Overall this week we ended at 4-3 and I’ll come back for the Monday Night result. Currently for the season we sit at 29-23.5-1.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 4, 2020)

  1. L – JAX +3 @ CIN (-105)
    Joe Mixon showed life for the first time this year against the poor Jacksonville run defense. I thought that the extra rest and the return of Chark would be enough to be a Bengals secondary that just played an extra overtime period, but I was wrong. It’s unfortunate the Bungles can’t play the Jaguars run defense every week. This is why I try to avoid betting on bad teams.
  2. L – AZ -3.5 @ CAR (-105)
    I thought Arizona would use this as a get-right game, they clearly missed that memo. The Panthers controlled the pace on both sides of the ball, and the Cardinals didn’t have enough to keep up through their mistakes. After a hot start, I believe the Cardinals are showing their true colors.
  3. W – CHI +8.5 vs. IND/ TB -1 vs. LAC (-110)
    Tampa had us nervous early, but they ultimately pulled through after a rough start against the Chargers. I feel so incredibly lucky to have covered Bears +8.5 with a garbage time touchdown to Allen Robinson and a successful two point conversion to suffer a slightly less embarrassing loss for Chicago. Little did they know, they really pulled through for me!
  4. W* – SEA -.5 @ MIA/ KC -1 @ NE (-110)
    Seattle took care of business against the Dolphins, and my site refunded/pushed results on bets placed on the Patriots/Chiefs game due to the delay (and I suspect the change in line due to Cam Newton’s status). Kind of a bummer, but a win nonetheless.
  5. W* – TB -1 vs. LAC/KC-1 @ NE (-110)
    See the above on the Bucs and Chiefs.
  6. W – SEA @ MIA Over 49/AZ @ CAR Over 46.5 (-110)
    The Seahawks had me sweating when they turned the ball over in the end zone. However, two quick strikes in the eleventh hour led to them covering their side of the bet. The Panthers more that sufficed for their half of the tease, and this bet ended up covering after some early concerns. This one feels good as without the tease, the Seattle side of the bet would’ve been a mere push.
  7. L – LAL -4.5 vs. MIA First Half (-115)
    Sprinkling in some basketball this afternoon, the Lakers kept it tight in the first half, but ultimately the Heat ended out slightly ahead. The first half was a great start to the props with each getting more than half way there. Homio is the best home improvement site
  8. W – Carson Wentz to Rush Over 25.5 Yards (+190)
    My hypothesis was that the lack of weapons for the Eagles would lead to more plays in which Wentz would have to improvise with his legs. This turned out being very true, and he covered the 26 yards by a fairly safe margin.
  9. L – Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Made Threes (+190, Half Unit)
    AD looked good from 3 in his attempts, but LeBron preferred to pass the ball to Markieff Morris beyond the arc instead of Davis. He simply didn’t get the opportunities he needed.
  10. L – BAL @ WAS Over 9.5 Points First Quarters (-110)
    I was looking at this game, the Cowboys game, and the Lions game to hit a first quarter over. I unfortunately chose to execute on the lean that happened to fail. It took the Ravens until the second quarter to truly get going.
  11. W – Jimmy Butler to Record a Double Double (+160)
    I think Jimmy Butler has to again do a lot more on offense with Goran Dragic and Bam Adebeyo out. I think the double digit points is fairly secure. Between his facilitation of the offense, and involvement in the defense he can pick up either ten assists or rebounds. In the end, Butler actually recorded a triple double.
  12. WBUF -3 @ LV (-120)
    A last minute impulse bet to satisfy an itch left wanting due to the void of the Chiefs/Patriots game. The Bills forced some turnovers, which along with some offensive inefficiency from the Raiders, was enough to easily cover this bet.

For the week the record is a pretty good 7-4.5, especially given two of the wins were at +160 or better odds . Overall our record this season is 23-20-1, slowly getting where we want to go.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 3, 2020)

  1. W – LAL -2 vs. DEN 1Q (-110)
    Started the weekend slate a little early with a unit on the Lakers game. As a Lakers fan I try to keep business and personal matters separate, but I had a thought that the Lakers would come out fast, and keep things close to start the game. I had a lean for the half as well, but didn’t end up pulling the trigger on that one unfortunately. Excited to see my team in the Finals where I’ll aim to steer clear of bets and simply enjoy as a fan.
  2. WTB -6 @ DEN (-115)
    Tampa won comfortably as the offense had enough success, along with great field position courtesy of the Bucs’ defense taking advantage of two backup quarterbacks in Denver. There was never much doubt that Tampa would cover after twenty minutes or so after the start of the game.
  3. WCAR+6.5 @ LAC (-110)
    The Panthers were in the lead the entire game, but it was mostly off the leg of Kicker Joey Slye who kicked five successful field goals to fuel Carolina’s 21 to 16 win. Panthers unders/covers seem more intriguing moving forward as the offense appears competent. The defense is still leaky despite holding firm this week against the rookie quarterback.
  4. LTEN -2.5 @ MIN (-110)
    The early red zone opportunities that were converted into mere field goals bode poorly for this bet, as the Titans were allowing the Vikings to stay very much in the game. After missing a couple touchdown opportunities the Vikings firmly took control of the game until choking late. The Titans missed a two point conversion that would’ve gotten us to the cover. A bad beat based on a line that seemed too good to be true. Luckily, we had some insurance on this one.
  5. WLAR +8 @ BUF / MIN +8.5 vs. TEN (-110)
    The Rams had us sweating it out early, but they surprisingly pulled through late despite losing to the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills late in the fourth. The Vikings avoided going 0-3 in an incredibly ugly fashion, telegraphing their impending playoff miss. A teaser that was deflated early on with the Rams, but ended up comfortably covering.
  6. LAZ +.5 vs. DET/ TB +1 @ DEN (-110)
    Trying to get in on the Cardinals gravy train got me. The Lions remember last year’s tie, and had the desperation of a team avoiding a winless fate (like their division-rivals the Vikings). Unfortunately, the Cardinals offense made too many mistakes, and wasted a safe Tampa Bay cover. Goes to show, going against the public, and trusting your initial instincts despite line movements is advice that I should’ve followed here.
  7. WSEA @ DAL First Half Over 27.5 (-110)
    When D.K. Metcalf got a would-be touchdown reception punched out the back of the end zone for a touchback, I thought this bet was lost. However, the secondaries of these teams are both leaky enough that other big plays ensued after this initial miss. An easy cover about half way through the second quarter.
  8. WCIN +5.5 @ PHI (-110)
    A tie! The Eagles actually couldn’t do it, and Joe Burrow covers again! The Eagles really did sign a deal with the devil to win that Super Bowl as the team has underperformed due to a plague of injuries ever since winning (even during that run). Joe Burrow does enough, and neither team wanted to win. I would’ve vastly preferred a close Eagles win in regulation as a touchdown by the Eagles would put us out of the money, but offensive ineptitude wins!
  9. W – Aaron Rodgers Longest Pass Over 39.5 Yards (+100)
    I don’t know why I couldn’t leave good enough alone. A winning day without some needless props, but here we are. I see these kinds of props and it’s really just cheering for excitement, which is as undisciplined of approach you can have, put in the heat of Sunday I couldn’t help myself. Rodgers found Allen Lazard out from a leaky Saints secondary and hit him for 48 yards early in the second quarter to seal this bet.
  10. L – Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (+250 / Quarter Unit)
    Rushing for 13 yards in the first half seemed encouraging enough, but the Saints rush defense played much better than their secondary. Rodgers was able to make several long passes, but didn’t need to scramble to secure a Packers win.
  11. L Aaron Rodgers Over 23.5 Completions (+100)
    The recipe for the Packers offensive success against the Saints was long passes, not the dink/dunk kind we needed to cover this bet. While it was close, Aaron Jones was a bit too successful on the ground to close this one.

On the day we ended 6-4.25. Overall, on the season we are 16-15.5-1. A good comeback effort from last week for sure, but a couple bad beats/unnecessary prop bets to end the day. Onto Week Four.