Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 11, 2020)

To kick things off, some Thursday night results:

  1. W – SEA-3 vs. AZ (-110)
  2. L – Russell Wilson to rush for Over 50.5 Yards (+275, Half-Unit)
  3. W – Russell Wilson to rush for Over 31.5 Yards (-115, Half-Unit)
    Overall, the game went about as predictably as a divisional Thursday night game would go. Given this game involved the Seahawks, of course it took a fourth quarter safety to hit the cover.

    The Cardinals were definitely cognizant of Wilson scrambles as it felt like they either had a spy or hyper aware linebackers for the majority of the night. I felt good about the number of attempts the Seattle signal caller received, but he wasn’t able to break through on a couple of the rushes for larger gains required to hit the 51 yards. Luckily, he safely hit 32 yards rushing which more than paid for both bets.

    This takes our season record to 58-47.5-2, onto the main slate:
  4. L – NE -2 @ HOU (-110)
    Kicking Sunday off with a few straight spreads. For the most part, we got the better of the lines by betting early. However, there was a moment on Sunday where this game was Pats -1/-1.5. Unfortunately, the Pats defense let up too many chunk plays. The offense couldn’t keep up.
  5. L – ATL +5 @ NO (-110)
    Atlanta started out promising, but the defense fell for every Taysom Hill gimmick. Emmanuel Sanders bailed his quarterback out several time, truly paying for himself in one game.
  6. W – CLE -3 vs. PHI (+100)
    A messy gross game. Cleveland has the edge in these as they’re used to them by now. Having two of the top fiver rushers in the league (in my opinion) really helps.
  7. W GB @ IND Over 52 (-110)
    A shootout, as predicted! What I didn’t was predict was this ineptitude from the Green Bay offense in the second half.
  8. LMIA @ DEN Over 46 (-110)
    There was a massive glimmer of hope when Fitzmagic orchestrated a drive into the red zone. However, the clock struck midnight and he threw a pick in his hot and cold fashion. I was between this game and the Chargers game for a high scoring shootout, and I feel for the Denver trap again. Never again.
  9. W – LAC -3 @ NYJ / PIT-4 @ JAX (-110)
    This was the “who messes this up?” / “too bad to win?” teaser. This week, all went to plan, including the Steelers playing down to their opponents.
  10. L – PIT -.5 @ JAX / MIA -.5 @ DEN (-125)
    Miami failed to cover.
  11. W – GB +7.5 @ IND / KC -1.5 @ LV (-110)
    The Chiefs made it quite exciting, actually trailing for much of the second half with a stagnating offense. When it counted, they marched down the field in the final two minutes and hit on a crucial turnover. A magnificent and exciting cover!
  12. L – Patrick Mahomes Longest Pass Over 40.5 (+100)
    There were only a few attempts over 20 yards tonight for Mahomes, and unfortunately none of them hit. It was death by a million cuts and the run game tonight.

On the week we are an undesirable 4-5 (add) for 62-52.5-2 on the year.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 10, 2020)

  1. W – TB -.5 @ CAR / PIT -1 vs. CIN (-110)
    A very clean hit with both games feeling secure for the vast majority. Good teams beat bad teams, it’s as simple as that.
  2. L – DEN @ LV Over 52 (-110)
    I think there were at least four red zone/near red zone turnovers in this game. Very sloppy, with about near the minimum number of expected points coming out here.
  3. W – SEA +8 @ LAR / BUF+7.5 @ AZ (-110)
    A thriller in Arizona, but we were okay both ways. Seattle luckily went for the field goal first, and safely carried us to winning this bet.
  4. W – MIA -0.5 vs. LAC (-120)
    The Dolphins are the real deal. The Chargers cannot keep it together for an entire game, and I think will fall apart for the rest of the season.
  5. L – SF -0.5 @ NO (+335, Half-Unit)
    What started out so promising was stifled by bad penalties and sloppiness on special teams. What could’ve been…
  6. L – CLE+2 @ HOU / LAC+7.5 @ MIA (-110)
    Losing by half a point hurts, but there wasn’t a missed field goal or kick here, it was simply the Chargers not being able to do enough. The Browns game was mostly boring, but they won against a struggling Texans team.
  7. LBAL @ NE First Quarter Over 7.5 (+100)
    A silly impulse bet, I should’ve known better. This Pats offense cannot score, and the Ravens chew clock on offense by design.
  8. L – IND +8 @ TEN / BAL -1 @ NE (-110)
    Dang it Baltimore.
  9. L – Lamar Jackson to Score a Rushing Touchdown (+140, Half-Unit)

For this week we ended 3-4 getting us to 56.5-47-2 on the year.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 8, 2020)

  1. W – CLE vs. LV Under 52.5 (-110)
    The 50 mph gusts in the first half were a good sign, and a missed field goal and seemingly anemic offense through the same period also bode well. Red zone inefficiency and gusts sealed this one as an early win.
  2. L – GB -.5 vs. MIN/TEN +.5 @ CIN(-110)
    Two surprising upsets for two contenders. Lucky to have these teased together if I’m being honest. Green Bay was much more in this game, and had a chance to tie the game late. However, the Titans still look to be hungover from last week, and the Bungles truly played up to them.
  3. L – BAL -4 vs. PIT (-110)
    Pittsburgh is good. Mistakes from Lamar Jackson cost the Ravens what should’ve been a much more competitive game.
  4. L – DET vs. IND +10 /MIA+10 vs. LAR (-120)
    Betting on the Lions only bring pain. Never again, please, never let me do it again. Really let down that this fell on the opposite end of a raucous Miami effort to net Tua his first win as a starter.
  5. W – KC vs. NYJ -13.5/BUF+2 vs. NE (-110)
    The Chiefs took care of business and the Bills squeaked out a close one against a scrappy Patriots team. It wasn’t certain against New England, but it pulled through.
  6. L – NE Moneyline (+180, Half Unit)
    This one was close, Cam lost it for us. I was thinking this would be a “kitchen sink” game for the Pats, and it was. However, the Pats failed to execute as needed to win.
  7. W – SEA +3 vs. SF/ LV +8.5 @ CLE (-110)
    Las Vegas looked to be the better team all day, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. In gusty conditions, Josh Jacobs and Devonta Booker thrived. The 49ers had a terrible outing, with the Seahawks easily covering the three points, winning by a blowout.
  8. W – DEN +3 vs. LAC (+100)
    Denver cannot sustain a drive. I thought this would be a game where Justin Herbert is outmatched on the road, but he looked to be in full control the entire game up until the fourth quarter. In classic Chargers fashion there was some late game heroics/chicanery which led to a Broncos win. Very thankful that the extra point went through so that this bet was safely secured outside of overtime.
  9. L – Carson Wentz Longest Pass Over 37.5 Yards @ DAL (+100, Half-Unit)
  10. L – Carson Wentz Over 30.5 Rushing Yards Yards @ DAL (+200, Half-Unit)
  11. W – CHI +10 vs. NO/PHI -5 vs. DAL (-110)
    Chicago doesn’t make it easy, really the entire NFC North has been a pain to bet on/against today. However, they ultimately pulled through when it mattered, as the ten points was more than sufficient regardless of the overtime outcome. In fact, I found myself cheering for a tie. Slim win for the Saints, sure! A paper tiger for sure from my view though until Brees can get some receiving talent back.
    The Eagles looked terrible in the first half, failing to protect Wentz on nearly every play.

On the day we hit 5-4.5 getting us to 49-33.5-2 for the season.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 6, 2020)

Not the best week by any means, I was was allured by early lines on what ended up to be very obvious trap games that sharps picked up throughout the week. This week could’ve been much worse depending on how I paired teasers, and this will act as a lesson to be more thoughtful with how I put those together next week:

  1. L – GB -1.5 @ TB (-115)
    This was the biggest trap game of the week, with Fox setting up the undefeated Aaron Rodgers and the Packers against the Tompa Bay Bucs. While the game started as planned for the Packers with ten quick points, Rodgers decided to celebrate with an ephemeral pelvic thrust, clearly losing the favor of the football gods in one motion. From there, Tampa scored 38 unanswered points as the Packers offense failed to generate much of anything. The Packers pass rush looked anemic, and the offense is devoid of talent when Adams (and to an extent Robert Tonyan) isn’t on the field.
  2. L – CLE +3.5 @ PIT (-110)
    I regretted this one early on in the week. The more I saw news about Bakers ribs, and the amount of buzz in Pittsburgh in regards to a Myles Garrett revenge narrative, I knew this wouldn’t be a game where the Steelers played down to their opposition. This game got out of hand within the first quarter, and was an easy add to the loss column early on.
  3. W – HOU @ TEN -3 (-125)
    This was a win in butt-clenching fashion after an excellent first quarter. The Texans have plenty of fight in them, but their coaching holds back an otherwise talented roster. The Titans pulled off some late game heroics, and King Derrick Henry reigned over the overtime period with conviction.
  4. L – NE -2 vs. DEN / DAL +7 (-110)
    Scam Newton strikes again, failing to move the ball against a Denver defense that has been inconsistent this year. The Patriots were able to contain the Broncos offense, holding them to six field goals (what a day for Brandon McManus fantasy owners!) but the lack of any offense sunk this bet. Get well soon Cam.

    The absolute worst part of this bet is that I made it while on a flight. For whatever reason, I thought this was really cool, but it was also impulsive. I’m glad that I’ll no longer have this curiosity in my life.
  5. W – BAL -1.5 @ PHI / MIA @ NYJ -2.5 (-110)
    Another tight game in Baltimore coming down to a stop on a two point conversion. While Baltimore still could’ve sealed the deal in OT, I’m glad they were able to close it out in regulation and save me some grief. The Jets are just in a tier of their own in terms of poor play, and even when their defense forced a couple turnovers, Flacco couldn’t generate any points. An easy win, and I regret only taking the fish in a tease.
  6. W – SF +9 vs. LAR / KC +1.5 @ BUF (-110)
    The 49ers got their get right game, and the Rams were contained for the entire game. The scheming was the magic here, with quick passes largely nullifying Aaron Donald. San Francisco struggled in the second half, which makes me nervous to bet on them moving forward, especially with their remaining schedule being the toughest remaining.
    Kansas City and Buffalo had a fairly messy game in the rain. However, the Chiefs managed just enough magic to make this one exciting, but the result was never in doubt.
  7. W – Kyler Murray to Rush Over 42.5 Yards (-120)
    Murray rushed early and often and easily covered this bet.
  8. L – Kyler Murray to Complete Over 26.5 Passes (+100, Half Unit)
    I suppose Murray just didn’t have to pass in this game to win. However, 9/24 isn’t becoming of a franchise quarterback against a battered defense.

Overall for the week, we ended down a bit at 4-4.5 which brings us to a season total of 33.5-28-1.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 5, 2020)

  1. L – DAL -8 vs. NYG (-110)
    This bet looked good until Dak Prescott was forced from the game. Ultimately the Cowboys won, but bad break for this bet. Hoping for a speedy recovery for the franchise-tagged quarterback.
  2. WMIA @ SF Over 24.5 First Half (-110)
    As a 49er fan this one did not go as intended. I imagined this one going the way of San Francisco early, instead we saw more Fitzmagic off of bad 49er turnovers. The bet secured, but there’s sadness in my heart.
  3. WLV +19.5 @ KC / CAR +8 @ ATL (-110)
    The Raiders actually won outright, which comes as a surprise even with the line moving from 13.5 when we took this teaser to 11 at close. The Chiefs defense looked tired, likely due to their wonky schedule from the previous week. Derek Carr’s outburst after last week’s loss looks to have worked as he secures only his third win against the Chiefs in his career.
    The Panthers pile onto Atlanta’s woes, winning the game outright by seven points. My only regret is not taking a moneyline parlay here which would’ve resulted in much better odds.
  4. ? – NO (-1.5) vs. LAC / SEA (-1) vs. MIN (-110)
    Pending Monday game. We only pushed on half, could still be a half win.
  5. L – PHI @ PIT Under 49 / CAR @ ATL Over 48.5 / CIN @ BAL Over 45.5 (+170)
    The battle of the Keystone State did not result in a low scoring ham-fisted bar fight. Rather, it was a high scoring shootout not representative of the teams’ defenses.
    Carolina didn’t need to score much as the Panthers totally stymied the Falcons scoring despite Calvin Ridley being able to generate bunches of yardage. This game also fell short of expectations.
    Lastly, the Bungles failed to score at all until the fourth quarter, and the Ravens had a couple key stalls in the red zone. Overall, this bet failed on all legs, and I’d describe this as ‘taking a big bath’ in Accounting terms.
  6. W – AZ +1 vs. NYJ/PIT -1 vs. PHI (-110)
    Arizona played the terrible New York Jets featuring a washed Joe Flacco, and Pittsburgh was able to outgun an injured Eagles offensive roster. I was quite surprised by the Eagles being able to score so much against the Steelers. For now, I’ll chalk this up to Pittsburgh playing down to it’s opposition and not worry about the offense for now.
  7. L – Jimmy Butler to Record a Triple Double (+245, Half-Unit)
    If the Heat do anything, it’ll be through Jimmy Butler was my logic here. He’s been sensational thus far in the series, and win or loss this trend should hold. Unfortunately, the whole Miami team fell a bit flat tonight and Butler fell a few assists and rebounds short of hitting this target.
  8. W – Anthony Davis to Record a Double Double (-110, Half-Unit)
    I personally think the odds should’ve been plus here given Davis’ perpetual lumbering every time his step needs to be slightly adjusted. However, any minutes he does play will be very active (it is the finals). He secured the bet midway through the fourth quarter.
  9. L – Russell Wilson Longest Pass Over 43.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
    Wilson had a final drive completion to DK Metcalf that fell four yards short of closing this bet. The rain didn’t help the cause, and the Vikings really only let Wilson have one half to pass as their defense held stout for much of the game.
  10. W – Russell Wilson Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Half-Unit)
    Wilson hit 35 rushing yards in the first half. There’s something about primetime games that activate the ‘Gotta make something out of nothing’ mentality that gets quarterbacks legs moving. Wilson especially is very adept using his legs to pick up yardage and this was a comfortable hit.

Overall this week we ended at 4-3 and I’ll come back for the Monday Night result. Currently for the season we sit at 29-23.5-1.