- W – TEN -.5 vs. IND First Quarter (+145)
I thought the Titans would come out hot after an embarrassing defeat last week. They came out hot enough, and this bet with favorable odds pulled through.
(53.5-43-2 for the year)
- DEN @ LV Over 52 (-110)
- SEA +8 @ LAR / BUF+7.5 @ AZ (-110)
- IND +8 @ TEN / BAL -1 @ NE (-110)
- Aaron Rodgers to Pass for Over 2.5 Touchdowns (+150, Half-Unit)
As a 49ers fan, I know how this secondary hasn’t been particularly stout this year. Further, the COVID impact in addition to existing injuries further depleted this team. As such, I was fairly confident Rodgers would have a good night, but he covered this bet in the first half. I kicked myself for not also taking his longest-yard pass over 39.5 yards prop bet after taking a hard look at that one as well.
This brings our record to 49.5-33.5-2 on the year. Onto Sunday’s bets:
- NYG +3 @ WAS (-110)
Close, gross, and sloppy teams in a sloppy divisional matchup. I take the points and run.
- CHI +5.5 @ TEN (-110)
I don’t think the Titans are that great on defense, and it’s a defense that the Bears can score on via short passes + YAC against blown coverages. Five and a half points felt safe in what I thought would be a close Titans win, however, the line has moved a point against my wager since it was placed.
- NO +11.5 @ TB / HOU-.5 @ JAX (-110)
The Saints should be returning Michael Thomas against a very streaky Tampa Bay Team. I’m somewhat worried by the return of Antonio Brown, but I’m thinking this will be a game the Saints will come out and try to control.
In terms of the Texans, they have no incentive to tank, and are playing a rookie backup quarterback. Hopefully the Jaguars don’t out tank themselves in this one.
- KC -4.5 vs. CAR / TEN+.5 vs. CHI (-110)
The Chiefs are very good, the Panthers defense is not. I like the Chiefs winning by five or more. I think the Titans game will be close (perhaps a tie?!) so trying to play the middle here on a team very similar to the Seahawks where we hit a couple weeks back.
- SEA +3.5 @ BUF / NE -1 @ NYJ (-110)
Seattle doesn’t play normal games, but I think they’ll play close against the Bills. As bad as the Pats have played, they can’t lose to the Jets right?
- W – CAR vs. ATL 1H Over 24.5 (-120)
Both of these teams have poor to very poor defenses. As such, the over felt safe. I like getting a hair below half the full game total with the first half with two bad defenses, and we hit comfortably.
- W – Teddy Bridgewater Rushing Yards over 14.5 @ (-110, Half-Unit)
Watching Matt Ryan hit this bet in the first half while Bridgewater went into the break with negative one yard didn’t feel good. What feels worse is seeing the feel-good story of this NFL season crumple in heap on the ground after a trip and a cheap shot. Somehow, Teddy came through for us, rushing for 30 yards in garbage time. Truly the feel-good story of the year.
- L – CAR-2.5 vs. ATL (-120)
This line actually decreased to -1.5 by kickoff (and at -110 odds no less) which actually spurred the above 1H total bet (chasing, bad, I know). With the conditions from the above, and already in a hole at that point, the Panthers just couldn’t take advantage of some first half situations which ultimately cost them the game and this bet. Between the injury, Thursday night wonkiness, weather, etc. I can accept the Falcons getting their second win in this mire of oddity. Panthers really should’ve used D.J. Moore much more this game.
Thursday night record of 1.5-1, gives us an overall of 44-29-2. Onto the main slate:
- DEN+3 vs. LAC (+100)
The Broncos defense has looked good, and while Justin Herbert has exceeded all expectations and is posting one of the best individual rookie QB performances in recent history, the Chargers are cursed. I’m a little afraid of divisional shenanigans, but I’m thinking the Broncos sneak one out in a lower scoring affair.
- CLE vs. LV Under 52.5 (-110)
This is heavily influenced by weather. With a Las Vegas team traveling east to play in heavy rain, wind upwards of 30 mph, etc. I’m thinking this game is a messy, slogging, run-based battle. A recipe akin to the Washington/San Francisco game last year that ended nine to zero with all scoring occurring in the second half. I’m not alone on this one, as the line has adjusted to 51 since I’ve placed my wager.
- GB/TEN -.5/+.5 @ MIN/CIN (-110)
This is the classic, ‘these teams can’t possibly lose to those teams’ teaser. Green Bay has been red hot all year aside from one stinker against the Bucs. Meanwhile the Vikings have looked dreadful all year, and just traded away one of their better defenders.
On the other end of the teaser are the Titans coming off a very close loss to the Steelers. They get a one win Bungles team that would actually benefit more from a loss at this point than a win. The Titans need to bank these ‘easy’ wins as their next four games hand them the Bears, Colts twice, and Ravens.