Posts by NC

Just a guy with thoughts on the bus.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Divisional Round, 2019)

1) SF -.5 vs. MIN, BAL -3.5 vs. TEN (-110)I believe in the Niners to take care of business at home, between the much healthier defense and Shanahan with an extra week to prepare, I think it’ll be a very tough road for the Vikings. After last week’s emotional win, I’m not sure the Vikings have another similar performance in them. A mid-week injury to Thielen is hopefully a non-factor, but if he’s even limited it could significantly hamper the Vikings Offense.

The Titans failed to muster 80 yards of passing offense last week against the Patriots. The Baltimore secondary has played quite well after the Marcus Peters trade, and 14 points on offense won’t be enough against the Ravens. I have a slight fear for a slow start from the Ravens given the bye week, but even still, I can’t imagine the Ravens scoring under 30 points.

2) KC -3.5 vs. HOU, SF vs. MIN Over 39 (-110)

Thirty nine points is a fairly low total with the Niners’ last 4 games going well over 40 points. With a couple weeks for the Niners to get healthy and game plan for the Vikings Defense I have a feeling Kittle and the offense will heat up. The Vikings have several weapons on offense, and even with the Niners defensive recoveries, the Vikings should still have at least a few scoring opportunities.

The Chiefs were beaten handily when these teams met in the regular season. However, that was a very different Chiefs team without it’s full array of weapons. Further, the Texans are a very streaky team, and that only worsens on the road. I also think the Chiefs have a significant coaching advantage. Chiefs to win by more than a field goal doesn’t feel like too many points to lay.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Wild Card Round, 2019)

1) BUF @ HOU Under 44 (-110)I felt a lot better about this bet after it was announced that Will Fuller would sit. This never felt in doubt throughout the game, and once the game went to overtime at 19-19, this bet was secured. It looks like Will Fuller will be back next week, so Texans/Chiefs could be a nice over.

2) BUF @ HOU Over 38.5, NE +1 vs. TEN (-110)The Bills game hit the sweet spot and both the over and under in this case hit for me. Unfortunately, the Patriots couldn’t pull out the win, and this could signal the end of the Patriots dynasty as well. A late chance to win resulted in a pick-six for the Titans and the game was over. It was a pleasure riding the Patriots through laying double digit points early in the season, and I hope that Brady comes back for another year. Hopefully the Pats can get a competent running back. That being said, I’ve never seen the NFL community so united in celebration for a result before this Pats loss.

Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry may have played themselves into sizable contracts, and will be a hot pick going into next year.

3) MIN @ NO Over 49.5 (-110)The game started off slow with Brees getting pressured from the start. This game became very defense oriented, with both offenses struggling to maintain drives. The Vikings were able to get enough chunk plays with their run game and Adam Thielen made up for his early fumble with several clutch conversions throughout the game. The early FGs (both made and missed) were bad omens for this bet, and it ultimately lost. Lesson here is to not underestimate defenses with rest. The Saints will likely be lamenting the officiating and calls once again after this loss.

4) Drew Brees Over 2.5 TDs (+125)This (and the following bet) were made with the game-script of a shootout in mind. When that didn’t come to fruition, and whatever TDs the Saints did score come via rushing killed the hopes of this bet from early on.

5) Drew Brees Over 350.5 Passing Yards (+250)The Vikings secondary seemed a bit suspect coming into this game, and the passing attack was efficient at home for the Saints as of late. Unfortunately, the Saints went with a more run-centric attack, resulting in a different game-script than expected, and the longest pass play of the game was thrown by Taysom Hill rather than Brees, sinking this one. It feels to me like The Saints played the Vikings game for some reason, rather than allowing Brees to air it out.

6) SEA -1.5 @ PHI (-115)It wasn’t too pretty, but the Seahawks were able to produce just enough to beat an Eagles team and their backup QB. This was a great win that also hit the 2 bets below, but I’d be pretty worried if I was a Seahawks fan. The offense was able to produce just 17 points against a very depleted secondary, but showed flashes of what could make their offense dynamic with Wilson runs and deep shots (which have always been Seattle’s trump card in the Carroll era). The upcoming Packers/Seahawks matchup is going to be a very hard one to call given both teams’ lack of consistentency.

7) Russell Wilson Longest Pass Completion Over 40.5 Yards (+100)Wilson was able to connect with DK Metcalf for a 53 yard touchdown completion. This was fortunate as the next longest pass was a 38 yard pass to Moore earlier in the game. I really like this bet for the Seahawks as it plays very well to their offense. I’ll take some Wilson wizardry at least once in each game, and this occurrence is fairly agnostic of game script as well. This may be a bet to take again next week.

8) Russell Wilson Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-120)The game kicked off with a 22 yard Wilson rush, which only gave some concern if there was no other rushing but some kneels to close out the game. In the end, there was several other rush attempts for Wilson, and this trend may continue given the poor production from Homer and Lynch. Some of this is due to Fletcher Cox on the Eagles, but at the same time, those aren’t very inspiring names in terms of RBs in 2019. My only regret was not taking (in addition or in lieu of this bet) Wilson over 30.5 rushing yards at +170. I’m interested to see how this line will be adjusted in next weeks props.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Wild Card Round, 2019)

1) BUF @ HOU Over 38.5, NE +1 vs. TEN (-110)Come playoffs, it really feels like we know all of these teams. We’re past matchups against the Raiders and Colts, or bad teams playing bad teams.

In the first game of the slate, we know that Will Fuller is the spark that makes the Texans offense successful (and he’s on track to play as of this writing). We also know the Texans have played much better at home. Hopefully, the return of JJ Watt is overstated, and it’s more of a diversion than anything else, meaning a susceptible Texans Defense. If this hold true, Josh Allen should be able to break through on enough plays to cover this over. I’m thinking this has a similar feeling to the Bills’ Week 16 matchup against the Pats, except with a more dangerous offense.

The Patriots haven’t played on Wild Card Weekend in a while. However, I don’t see the Titans ultimately coming out with the win. While the Titans are surging, I just can’t count the Patriots out at home. The Pats are probably elbow deep in “nobody believes in us” fever at this point. Aside from last week, I haven’t looked silly betting on the Pats in a long while.

2) MIN @ NO Over 49.5 (-110)The NFL did the Vikings a huge favor by scheduling this game in the Sunday afternoon slot (AKA the ‘Kirk Cousins Zone’). The Saints have played at a blazing pace on offense recently, and the Vikings should have a healthy Dalvin Cook/Adam Thielen. For whatever reason, these two teams seem to play each other in shootouts a lot, and I think the Vikings will need to score into the 30’s if they want a shot at moving on. I’d be surprised if this game didn’t hit 40 by the half.

3) SEA -1.5 @ PHI (-115)In an injury ridden matchup, I can’t see the Eagles secondary holding back Wilson and the Seahawks receivers. The Seahawks have been playing better on the road, and while their defense has been fairly porous, the Eagles are depleted on the offensive side of the ball as well. Unfortunately, I don’t see a path to victory for the Eagles in this matchup, part of me is already bracing for the Eagles fans booing at halftime.

4) BUF @ HOU Under 44.0 (-110)Given Will Fuller is slated to play in this game the point total rose a bit. While this is contrary to my first bet, there is a 6 point sweet spot where both of these bets will hit. I don’t think a 24-21 game is unreasonable, and will hope for that result come Saturday night.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 17, 2019)

1) MIA +22.5 @ NE, KC -3 vs. LAC (-110)

The Pats offense has looked terrible in recent weeks, even though the Dolphins have a putrid patchwork defense, I didn’t think the Pats could stage a win of 22 or more with Fitzpatrick playing in this game. After pacing this bet the spread increased further, and I really wasn’t sure what bettors were thinking. What I didn’t expect was a straight-up Dolphins victory over the Pats. Fitzpatrick and Parker (who I think has outperformed all other WRs against Gilmore this year) led the Dolphins to a strong offensive showing against the the vaunted Patriots Defense. The Pats will be playing in Wild Card weekend for the first time in a long while

The Chiefs knew they had a shot (no matter how seemingly slim) to get a bye in the playoffs. I figured that the Chiefs starters would play for the entierty of the game, and the Pats cooperated by not going up big in the first half of their game (giving the Chiefs the motivation they needed) This game had all the makings of a 2019 Chargers game –

  • Display of early flashes of elite talent
  • Inevitably finding/digging themselves into a hole
  • Chargers mount a doomed comeback

In the end, the Chiefs came back safely, and in doing so secured a bye in the playoffs. This defense, that was gashed at times by Phillip Rivers, doesn’t seem like it can make it far in the playoffs, but if they can get healthier with the bye it could be enough for a long postseason run.

2) GB SU @ DET, ATL @ TB Over 48 (+120)A win that easily took a couple years off of my life, coming down to the wire in both cases. It really didn’t have to be this way, Detroit with a backup quarterback, and a hobbled Tampa offense against a recently strong Atlanta defense seemed like the perfect storm.

Green Bay started off very slow on offense, featuring several overthrows and miscommunication on the part of Rodgers and his receivers. Coming alive in the second half, Rodgers began to connect with his receivers. Despite one missed field goal, Mason Crosby made the kick when it mattered, delivering on a 33 yard field goal as time expired.

The first half went to planned for Tampa with a strong 38 points posted. The pace sputtered significantly in the second half with Winston putting up anemic numbers. Three missed field goals didn’t help, but luckily the game made it to overtime. A touchdown was necessary, and Jameis delivered when it mattered most. A quick pick six sealed this bet.

I really hope Jameis gets resigned, betting on him has been a ton of fun. There aren’t many quarterbacks that can stage comebacks (or set his own team back) like Jameis can.

3) NE SU vs. MIA, NO SU @ CAR, TEN SU @ HOU (-110)This one certainly seemed like a safe bet, with all teams having vital playoff implications based on the outcomes of the game. The Saints immediately handled their business, and the game was basically finished after the first quarter with Grier and the Panthers offense failing to generate anything. Even with Kyle Allen coming in, he was good for a turnover, and couldn’t generate much beyond yards for Christian McCaffery.

In Houston, the Titans took care of business, with Derrick Henry scoring multiple touchdowns in the second half. They earned themselves a trip to New England, and they look like a very well rounded team going into that matchup.

I was very surprised that the leg to lose this parlay was the Pats. A shocking loss to Miami after closing as 16.5 point favorites is quite shocking, and very ‘un-pats-like’. Onto the Wild Card Round?

4) NO -6.5 @ CAR, KC -1.5 vs. LAC, WAS +17 @ DAL (+150)Washington kept it close to start, but this game was over mid-way through the third. Unfortunately it’s all for naught as the Eagles were able to win against the Giants, sealing the Cowboys fate in itself.

5) SF -3 @ SEA (-125)A game that the Niners virtually needed if they wanted to legitimately make a Super Bowl run. The defense returned to form, and the Seahawks losing a great deal of depth in their running game helped a lot to secure this bet as well. In the end it came down to the defense holding. There will be some controversial calls, but in the end the Niners, and the bet pulled through.

Sports Bet Review (NBA – Week of Dec. 23, 2019)

1) BKN SU vs. NYK, OKC SU vs. MEM, DAL SU vs. SAS (+142)The Nets really need their stars back as they feel to the Knicks in a game where nothing worked for Brooklyn. None of their pieces were efficient, and they allowed Julius Randle to take over the game.

OKC was on a bit of a hot streak, however, Memphis came out strong at the start of each half getting great play from Valanciunas and Brandon Clarke. Hot streaks meditated on hot shooting from Schroder and SGA can’t be relied upon (as much as I love Shai and his amazing jersey to letter value).

Dallas was able to pull away late, but the first half was very tic for tat. This game featured the return of newly minted Jordan Brand athlete Luka Doncic, and in the end the Mavericks were able to secure the win against the Spurs. That being said, Doncic still has a ton of rust to knock off before I feel comfortable betting on the Mavs again.

Overall, these middle of the pack teams are hard to predict, even against bad teams.