Posts by NC

Just a guy with thoughts on the bus.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 11, 2020)

To kick things off, some Thursday night results:

  1. W – SEA-3 vs. AZ (-110)
  2. L – Russell Wilson to rush for Over 50.5 Yards (+275, Half-Unit)
  3. W – Russell Wilson to rush for Over 31.5 Yards (-115, Half-Unit)
    Overall, the game went about as predictably as a divisional Thursday night game would go. Given this game involved the Seahawks, of course it took a fourth quarter safety to hit the cover.

    The Cardinals were definitely cognizant of Wilson scrambles as it felt like they either had a spy or hyper aware linebackers for the majority of the night. I felt good about the number of attempts the Seattle signal caller received, but he wasn’t able to break through on a couple of the rushes for larger gains required to hit the 51 yards. Luckily, he safely hit 32 yards rushing which more than paid for both bets.

    This takes our season record to 58-47.5-2, onto the main slate:
  4. L – NE -2 @ HOU (-110)
    Kicking Sunday off with a few straight spreads. For the most part, we got the better of the lines by betting early. However, there was a moment on Sunday where this game was Pats -1/-1.5. Unfortunately, the Pats defense let up too many chunk plays. The offense couldn’t keep up.
  5. L – ATL +5 @ NO (-110)
    Atlanta started out promising, but the defense fell for every Taysom Hill gimmick. Emmanuel Sanders bailed his quarterback out several time, truly paying for himself in one game.
  6. W – CLE -3 vs. PHI (+100)
    A messy gross game. Cleveland has the edge in these as they’re used to them by now. Having two of the top fiver rushers in the league (in my opinion) really helps.
  7. W GB @ IND Over 52 (-110)
    A shootout, as predicted! What I didn’t was predict was this ineptitude from the Green Bay offense in the second half.
  8. LMIA @ DEN Over 46 (-110)
    There was a massive glimmer of hope when Fitzmagic orchestrated a drive into the red zone. However, the clock struck midnight and he threw a pick in his hot and cold fashion. I was between this game and the Chargers game for a high scoring shootout, and I feel for the Denver trap again. Never again.
  9. W – LAC -3 @ NYJ / PIT-4 @ JAX (-110)
    This was the “who messes this up?” / “too bad to win?” teaser. This week, all went to plan, including the Steelers playing down to their opponents.
  10. L – PIT -.5 @ JAX / MIA -.5 @ DEN (-125)
    Miami failed to cover.
  11. W – GB +7.5 @ IND / KC -1.5 @ LV (-110)
    The Chiefs made it quite exciting, actually trailing for much of the second half with a stagnating offense. When it counted, they marched down the field in the final two minutes and hit on a crucial turnover. A magnificent and exciting cover!
  12. L – Patrick Mahomes Longest Pass Over 40.5 (+100)
    There were only a few attempts over 20 yards tonight for Mahomes, and unfortunately none of them hit. It was death by a million cuts and the run game tonight.

On the week we are an undesirable 4-5 (add) for 62-52.5-2 on the year.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 10, 2020)

  1. W – TB -.5 @ CAR / PIT -1 vs. CIN (-110)
    A very clean hit with both games feeling secure for the vast majority. Good teams beat bad teams, it’s as simple as that.
  2. L – DEN @ LV Over 52 (-110)
    I think there were at least four red zone/near red zone turnovers in this game. Very sloppy, with about near the minimum number of expected points coming out here.
  3. W – SEA +8 @ LAR / BUF+7.5 @ AZ (-110)
    A thriller in Arizona, but we were okay both ways. Seattle luckily went for the field goal first, and safely carried us to winning this bet.
  4. W – MIA -0.5 vs. LAC (-120)
    The Dolphins are the real deal. The Chargers cannot keep it together for an entire game, and I think will fall apart for the rest of the season.
  5. L – SF -0.5 @ NO (+335, Half-Unit)
    What started out so promising was stifled by bad penalties and sloppiness on special teams. What could’ve been…
  6. L – CLE+2 @ HOU / LAC+7.5 @ MIA (-110)
    Losing by half a point hurts, but there wasn’t a missed field goal or kick here, it was simply the Chargers not being able to do enough. The Browns game was mostly boring, but they won against a struggling Texans team.
  7. LBAL @ NE First Quarter Over 7.5 (+100)
    A silly impulse bet, I should’ve known better. This Pats offense cannot score, and the Ravens chew clock on offense by design.
  8. L – IND +8 @ TEN / BAL -1 @ NE (-110)
    Dang it Baltimore.
  9. L – Lamar Jackson to Score a Rushing Touchdown (+140, Half-Unit)

For this week we ended 3-4 getting us to 56.5-47-2 on the year.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 9, 2020)

  1. W – NYG +3 @ WAS (-110)
    The logic of “take the points” a resounding success as this was indeed a defensive-focused wet noodle fight. Poorly timed turnovers impacted both of these teams. I think the infusion of Alex Smith midway through this game gave Washington an unexpected boost. However, the luster quickly wore off, and a couple interceptions from him late in the game sealed this bet.
  2. L – SEA -3 @ BUF (+100)
    Over indexed on the Seahawks, this proved costly over two bets. Seattle is 8-1-1 ATS when traveling to the east coast, and the Bills have looked dreadful the past few weeks. However, they played up to the Seahawks and comfortably cruised through the game.
  3. W – MIN-3 vs. DET (-120)
    Dalvin Cook is just too good. Detroit had no answers, and Kenny Golladay’s absence could be felt across the Lions offense. This Vikings team is effective as long as Cook is in the lineup. I expect their lines to increase in the coming weeks.
  4. L – CHI +5.5 @ TEN (-110)
    There is nothing more painful to watch in the NFL than the Bears offense. The ineptitude of the rushing game is astounding, I’ve never seen a back do less with more than David Montgomery. The Titans didn’t look like world beaters against the Bears defense, but Nick Foles just couldn’t propel drives, leading to a convincing loss.
  5. L – KC -4.5 vs. CAR / TEN+.5 vs. CHI (-110)
    The Titans covered easily, and the Chiefs looked primed to follow suit. However, a late game surge from the Panthers in a valiant comeback attempt and a great final defensive stand from Carolina on the final drive, equaled a close failure to cover. CMC is back, and he hasn’t missed a beat.
  6. L – AZ -6 vs. MIA (-105)
    I guess Tua is the real deal. The Miami defense did just enough to stifle a last minute surge from the Cardinals, and covered the bet.
  7. L – PIT-14 @ DAL (-105)
    This was deep into the chase. There were so many warning signs about this one – the look past game, new quarterback boost, etc. A silly loss that could’ve been prevented if I only took a moment to think about it instead of embracing the chase. Speaking of chasing…
  8. WNO +11.5 @ TB / HOU-.5 @ JAX (-110)
    Easy win as the Saints rolled and the Texans grind one out against the Jags.
  9. LBAL +7 @ IND / NO @ TB +1.5 (-110)
    Chasing is very bad.
  10. LTom Brady to Pass Over 2.5 TDs (+160, Half Unit)
    Chasing is very bad.
  11. LTom Brady to Pass Over 3.5 TDs (+450, Half Unit)
    Chasing is very bad.
  12. L – Antonio Brown to Receive Over 39.5 Yards (-115, Half Unit)
    Chasing is very bad.
  13. L – Rob Gronkowski to Score a Touchdown (+150, Half Unit)
    Chasing is very bad.
  14. L – Mike Evans to Score a Touchdown (+100, Half Unit)
    Do. Not. Chase.
    You’d think that I’d at least sprinkle my chase onto both sides. However, I truly thought the Bucs would win this game by three to six points with at least 30 points of scoring from each side. My narrative was basically the opposite of reality.
  15. L – SEA +3.5 @ BUF / NE -1 @ NYJ (-110)
    Seattle cooked this bet.

This week our record was 3-9.5, bringing us to a season total of  52.5-43-2. This week featured the sloppiest of chases and mistakes that I thought I had purged from my character. Onto Week Ten.