Posts by NC

Just a guy with thoughts on the bus.

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 16, 2020) / BET-A-PALOOZA

BET-A-PALOOZA sponsored by several inebriated Zoom calls. Oh the Holidays. The record for this week has blown up, but the luls/memories are worth the sting.

  1. W – BKN -7 @ GSW (-110)
  2. L – LAL-2.5 vs. LAC (-110)
  3. W – BYU-6 @ UCF (-115)
  4. W – WAS +7.5 @ PHI (-110)
  5. L – MIA -4.5 @ ORL (-110)
  6. L – MIL -3.5 @ BOS (-110)
  7. L – SAC @ DEN U226.5 (-110)
  8. W – UTA +.5 First Quarter @ POR (+100)
  9. L – DAL +1 @ PHX (-110)
  10. W – NO @ MIA U223.5 (-110, Half-Unit)
  11. L – GSW @ MIL U232 (-110, Half-Unit)
  12. W – BKN @ BOS U227.5 (-110, Half-Unit)
  13. L – DAL @ LAL U227.5 (-110, Half-Unit)
  14. L – LAC @ DEN U225.5 (-110, Half-Unit)
  15. W – BKN -3 @ BOS (-105)
  16. L – NO -1 vs. MIN / AZ -1 vs. SF (-110)
  17. W – MIA @ LV O47.5 (-110)
  18. L – POR -7.5 vs. HOU (-110)
  19. L – BAL -2.5 2H @ NYG (-125)
    Nothing like a hitting the kicker penalty and a fumble on the 3 yard line. Thank you sloppy Ravens second half. I’ll consider this a bad beat.
  20. L – CLE -1 @ NYJ / IND +8 @ PIT (-110)
  21. W – PHI @ DAL 1Q Over 9.5 (-125)
    I felt like the Eagles and Jalen Hurts could get this alone (and they did). This was hit comfortably about halfway through the first quarter.
  22. L – MIL -.5 vs. GSW / PHI -.5 @ DAL (-102)
  23. L – PHI -1.5 @ DAL (-110)
  24. W – TB -2 vs. DET / CHI -1.5 @ JAX (-110)
  25. L – CLE -3 @ NYJ / MIA +3.5 @ LV (-120)
  26. L – IND -1.5 @ PIT (-110)
    A very sad second half for the Colts after dominating the first half. Capped off by Phillip Rivers interceptions.
  27. L – LAR @ SEA O47 (-110)
  28. W – SEA -1 vs. LAR (-115)
  29. L – WAS -1 vs. CAR (-110)
  30. L – Derrick Henry to Rush Over 1.5 TDs (+250)
  31. L – TEN +3.5 @ GB (-115)
  32. L – BAL-.5 @ NYG / CLE +.5 @ NYJ KC -.5 vs. ATL (-130)
  33. L – CLE -3 @ NYJ / BUF -.5 @ NE (-110)
  34. L – TB -.5 @ DET /AZ -.5 vs. SF /CHI-.5 @ JAX / BUF -.5 @ NE (+192, Half-Unit)
  35. L – TEN +9.5 @ GB / BUF -1 @ NE (-110)
  36. L – TEN @ GB U52.5 (-110)
    Silly me thinking snow would slow down offenses a bit.
  37. W- Aaron Jones Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
  38. W – Ryan Tannehill Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

    The Browns loss really anchored a terrible Sunday performance this week. Beyond that, the Colts fall apart and bad live bets cost us plenty this holiday weekend. We’ll have to focus up next week and get back on track. This week: 12 – 23 Overall this season: 108.5-95.5-3.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 16, 2020)

Sorry for the wonky formatting / brief note. It’s been a whirlwind of a Holiday season, but I’ll be back on Sunday/Monday to review these per usual.

There’s a couple NCAAF and many NBA bets above. I’m still most into traditional NFL bets but I may be sprinkling in some other sports moving forward (especially once the NFL season concludes).

Happy Holidays everyone!

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 15, 2020)

  1. W – PHI -1.5 @ IND (-115)
    The bench for the 76ers really came through for me on this one. However, I think I’ll stay away from preseason NBA action as it’s wildly unpredictable and nobody is really trying.
  2. L – USC -3 vs. ORE (-105)
    Staying away from college football. Who am I? This was super out of character and I regret ever placing the bet. Even if it did hit, watching this supposed “Conference Championship” game felt very icky and sloppy. #neveragain.
  1. L – Josh Allen to Pass for Over 2.5 TDs (+225, Half-Unit)
    The refs and bad game script stole this one from us. I’m not sure if I’m more upset about the back to back flags on touchdown passes in the third quarter, or the rushing touchdowns that vultured this bet. Alas, this game also closed a futures bet for the Bills to win the AFC East, so there is a silver lining.
  2. W – Josh Allen to Rush for Over 32.5 Yards (-110, Half-Unit)
    Phew! Won this one by exactly half a yard. These are the bets your cherish, as after hitting 33 yards, Allen did not have another rush attempt. Thankfully, the Bills also inserted Matt Barkley in at the end of the game, nullifying the chance of a kneel-down taking away the needed rush yardage.
  3. W – BUF -.5 @ DEN /IND -1 vs. HOU (-110)
    Buffalo closed handily, with the game never feeling in doubt. My only regret was not realizing how important this game was for the standings and placing more standalone money on the Bills here. The Colts beat the Texans off another last play-fumble. I’ll take it, but there’s some cracks in the armor for the Colts for sure.
  4. W – Bills to Win AFC East (+125)
    A closed future bet upon the result of this week’s games. The Bills clinched and so did a bet I placed in early August. Seems obvious now, but back then the Jets and Cam Newton were seen with much more optimism. At this point, the Bills are the clear deserving winner of this division.
  5. L – Teddy Bridgewater to Pass for Over 269.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
    A very rough game for Bridgewater, I never had an inkling of doubt that this bet would hit.
  6. W – GB -2 vs. CAR / TB 0 @ ATL (-110)
    The Packers won handily, and the Bucs were a part of another classic Falcons collapse. You love to see it.
  7. L – JAX +19.5 @ BAL / NE +8 @ MIA (-110)
    My underdog parlay. This didn’t account for Stephon Gilmore going down for the Pats which unlocked the Dolphins offense. The Jaguars didn’t have enough in garbage time, actually making more mistakes than really needed and blowing this one completely. Luckily, these two were paired together, and we consolidated the losses here.
  8. L – SEA -5.5 @ WAS (-105)
  9. W – WAS +6 vs. SEA (-110)
    So, I am an idiot that doesn’t check my bet history before placing more bets. If the Seahawks scored a single point more I would’ve somehow middled these bets and come away with a push/win. However we go 1-1 off a very silly lesson learned. The game itself was very ugly (as expected) and I do feel that not having Alex Smith was a very tough hand to be dealt for Washington as I think that would’ve been the difference.
  10. W – MIA -0.5 vs. NE Second Half (-110)
    This was a live bet as soon as Gilmore limped off the field. He truly enables the Patriots to play their true grind-it-out style of dirty football. This masks Cam Newton’s inefficiencies, but with him gone the Dolphins were able to unlock their offense and ran away with the second half.
  11. W – ATL vs. TB Over 24 Points Second Half (-120)
    This was a bet on the Falcons collapsing in the second half. They did. I only wish I took the Bucs to win the second half as well instead of settling on this proxy bet.
  12. L – LAR vs. NYJ Over 7.5 Points First Quarter (-115)
    My logic here is that the Rams should blow out the Jets, which should spell an early score. The Jets are also notorious for scoring on their first drive. While the latter point held true, the Rams aren’t moving the ball as fluidly as I predicted which lost this bet by half a point. Maybe I should stick to the Ravens/Chiefs against bad teams for bets like this moving forward.
  13. L – LAR -11 vs. NYJ Second Half (-120)
    The Rams wouldn’t lose to the Jets right? There’s no way, of course they’ll come back in the second half. Dammit Rams. A continuation of last year’s lessons, don’t bet on the Rams or bad teams (may be redundant here).
  14. Push – KC -3 @ NO (-110)
    Logic here was that the Chiefs have been playing every team very close. However, in this case, the Saints got a bit too close. Alas, the importance of buying the crucial half point past the 3 rears it’s ugly head here. We’ll take the push and fight another day.
  15. W – AZ -.5 vs. PHI / NO +9 vs. KC (-110)
    In the battle of Bird-based playoff contenders, I found the Cardinals to be less faulty. The Eagles are riding a dual-threat rookie quarterback and receivers I’ve never heard of. The Cardinals have an established dual-threat quarterback and receivers I have heard of. As such, edge Cardinals, and this came to fruition. The Saints kept it close, and closed this bet for us.
  16. W – TEN -3 vs. DET / CLE 0 @ NYG (-120)
    The Titans closed easily as predicted against a completely outmatched and out-motivated Lions squad. New York failed to generate much of any offense after flailing on fourth down in the first half.
  17. L – Baker Mayfield to Rush over 20.5 Yards (+225, Half-Unit)
  18. ? – PIT -13 @ CIN (+100)
    This one is pending the Monday Night result.

That puts as at 9.5-6.5-1 for this week, with one pending. This puts us at 96.5-71.5-3 (this includes Thursday Night Football’s bets as well) for the year. As you may be able to tell, I’m off from work for the rest of the year hence the increased bet volume. Expect this until the New Year, especially with the NBA and another couple weeks of NFL coming up.

Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 15, 2020)

  1. W – LAC +3 @ LV (-105)
    A couple Thursday night bets to kick-off this weekend full of Football. In the culmination of divisional shenanigans and Thursday Night Football sloppiness, the Chargers produced an outstanding overtime period for us. In a way, the misses from Michael Badgley perfectly set up a game winning scenario. Honarable mention to the Raiders paper-thin defense for enabling a rookie quarterback down his top two receivers. It’s fitting that the Chargers first divisional win in ten matchups basically knocks the Raiders out of the playoff race.
  2. W – Josh Jacobs to Outrush Austin Ekeler by Over-6.5 @ LAC (-115)
    A long run by Ekeler on the Chargers final drive of regulation looked to put this one out of reach for us. However, thanks to the aforementioned special teams faux pas the overtime period allowed for Jacobs to gain around 20 additional yards rushing. On the flipside, the Chargers relied on their receivers to carry them through the extra period. Thank you to the Raiders inept secondary for closing this bet for us.
  1. BUF -.5 @ DEN /IND -1 vs. HOU (-110)
  2. GB -2 vs. CAR / TB 0 @ ATL (-110)
  3. JAX +19.5 @ BAL / NE +8 @ MIA (-110)
  4. SEA -5.5 @ WAS (-105)
  5. WAS +6 vs. SEA (-110)
  6. KC -3 @ NO (-110)
  7. PIT -13 @ CIN (+100)

Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 14, 2020)

  1. L – DAL +3 @ CIN / NYG +8.5 vs. AZ (-110)
    Giants didn’t show up to play, and the Cardinals got their get-right game. I think Daniel Jones return actually disrupted the Giants momentum, and the loss was momentous. Dallas easily covered given the talent disparity between the teams. I should’ve trusted my gut and taken Cowboys straight up.
  2. W – TEN -1.5 @ JAX / KC -1.5 @ MIA (-110)
    Two playoff bound teams against teams they should beat if they are truly contenders. The Chiefs continued to toy with their opponents, and not truly put away the game until much later than seems reasonable. However, the suspense was rewarded with an early win.
  3. WGB -1.5 @ DET / CHI +8 @ vs. HOU (-110)
    Chicago covered their side of the bet handily, destroying a Texans team that lacked playmaking on the offensive end of the ball. The Lions activated divisional shenanigan in the first half, but have that tendency to fall apart after a competent first half. The Packers really picked things up, and despite the opportunities presented to the Lions, they couldn’t convert.
  4. L – NO -1 @ PHI / TB -.5 vs. MIN (-110)
    Tampa kept it somewhat close, but ultimately pulled off the win at home against a streaky Vikings team.
  5. L – GB @ DET -1.5 / NO -1 @ PHI (-110)
    A combo of the above, I felt confident about both. This is what I get for underestimating… Jalen Hurts. Safe bets aren’t so safe after all. I’ll be more weary of stacking bets moving forward.
  6. L – ATL -2.5 @ LAC (-115)
    This line went all the way up to Atlanta +2.5 with a brief moment at a pick’em. I’m flummoxed to what impacted this line so significantly over the weekend, but my early week bet was looking detrimental. Matt Ryan threw away this game, as inching forward and hitting a field goal would’ve sealed the game. However, a late interception and the Chargers somehow not ending in their typical cursed fashion lost this bet. There’s some cold comfort here, as even at +2.5 this bet still would’ve lost.
  7. W – LV vs. IND Over 51.5 (-110)
    Aside from one end zone turnover, the first half looked promising for this bet. The Colts have unlocked Jonathan Taylor (by actually putting him into the game) and Rivers’ risk has been mitigated with the strong run game. A great combination of developing offense and continued defensive ineptitude lead to an easy over.
  8. W – SF First Quarter -0.5 vs. WAS (+120)
    My thought here was that this would be a defense focused game script. However, I trusted Kyle Shannahan’s scripted offensive plays at the start of the game to get something going early. While I don’t believe this start will dictate the ending of the game, my gut turned out to be correct on this one.
  9. W – WAS -.5 @ SF (+130, Half-Unit)
    Even though the first quarter ended with zero points for Washington, their offense showed their talent in the second quarter. A handful of turnovers and brilliant play from Chase young led to 13 unanswered Washington points. From there, the defenses really dominated this game and the Washington Football team put themselves in first place of their division.
  10. ? – CLE +7 vs. BAL / BUF +3.5 vs. PIT (-110)

With one bet still pending, we end the week at 5.5-4. On top of this, we have to give ourselves credit for the Bills closing our teaser on Monday Night Football last week. For the season, this puts us at 85-65-2.