Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 15, 2020)

  1. W – PHI -1.5 @ IND (-115)
    The bench for the 76ers really came through for me on this one. However, I think I’ll stay away from preseason NBA action as it’s wildly unpredictable and nobody is really trying.
  2. L – USC -3 vs. ORE (-105)
    Staying away from college football. Who am I? This was super out of character and I regret ever placing the bet. Even if it did hit, watching this supposed “Conference Championship” game felt very icky and sloppy. #neveragain.
  1. L – Josh Allen to Pass for Over 2.5 TDs (+225, Half-Unit)
    The refs and bad game script stole this one from us. I’m not sure if I’m more upset about the back to back flags on touchdown passes in the third quarter, or the rushing touchdowns that vultured this bet. Alas, this game also closed a futures bet for the Bills to win the AFC East, so there is a silver lining.
  2. W – Josh Allen to Rush for Over 32.5 Yards (-110, Half-Unit)
    Phew! Won this one by exactly half a yard. These are the bets your cherish, as after hitting 33 yards, Allen did not have another rush attempt. Thankfully, the Bills also inserted Matt Barkley in at the end of the game, nullifying the chance of a kneel-down taking away the needed rush yardage.
  3. W – BUF -.5 @ DEN /IND -1 vs. HOU (-110)
    Buffalo closed handily, with the game never feeling in doubt. My only regret was not realizing how important this game was for the standings and placing more standalone money on the Bills here. The Colts beat the Texans off another last play-fumble. I’ll take it, but there’s some cracks in the armor for the Colts for sure.
  4. W – Bills to Win AFC East (+125)
    A closed future bet upon the result of this week’s games. The Bills clinched and so did a bet I placed in early August. Seems obvious now, but back then the Jets and Cam Newton were seen with much more optimism. At this point, the Bills are the clear deserving winner of this division.
  5. L – Teddy Bridgewater to Pass for Over 269.5 Yards (+100, Half-Unit)
    A very rough game for Bridgewater, I never had an inkling of doubt that this bet would hit.
  6. W – GB -2 vs. CAR / TB 0 @ ATL (-110)
    The Packers won handily, and the Bucs were a part of another classic Falcons collapse. You love to see it.
  7. L – JAX +19.5 @ BAL / NE +8 @ MIA (-110)
    My underdog parlay. This didn’t account for Stephon Gilmore going down for the Pats which unlocked the Dolphins offense. The Jaguars didn’t have enough in garbage time, actually making more mistakes than really needed and blowing this one completely. Luckily, these two were paired together, and we consolidated the losses here.
  8. L – SEA -5.5 @ WAS (-105)
  9. W – WAS +6 vs. SEA (-110)
    So, I am an idiot that doesn’t check my bet history before placing more bets. If the Seahawks scored a single point more I would’ve somehow middled these bets and come away with a push/win. However we go 1-1 off a very silly lesson learned. The game itself was very ugly (as expected) and I do feel that not having Alex Smith was a very tough hand to be dealt for Washington as I think that would’ve been the difference.
  10. W – MIA -0.5 vs. NE Second Half (-110)
    This was a live bet as soon as Gilmore limped off the field. He truly enables the Patriots to play their true grind-it-out style of dirty football. This masks Cam Newton’s inefficiencies, but with him gone the Dolphins were able to unlock their offense and ran away with the second half.
  11. W – ATL vs. TB Over 24 Points Second Half (-120)
    This was a bet on the Falcons collapsing in the second half. They did. I only wish I took the Bucs to win the second half as well instead of settling on this proxy bet.
  12. L – LAR vs. NYJ Over 7.5 Points First Quarter (-115)
    My logic here is that the Rams should blow out the Jets, which should spell an early score. The Jets are also notorious for scoring on their first drive. While the latter point held true, the Rams aren’t moving the ball as fluidly as I predicted which lost this bet by half a point. Maybe I should stick to the Ravens/Chiefs against bad teams for bets like this moving forward.
  13. L – LAR -11 vs. NYJ Second Half (-120)
    The Rams wouldn’t lose to the Jets right? There’s no way, of course they’ll come back in the second half. Dammit Rams. A continuation of last year’s lessons, don’t bet on the Rams or bad teams (may be redundant here).
  14. Push – KC -3 @ NO (-110)
    Logic here was that the Chiefs have been playing every team very close. However, in this case, the Saints got a bit too close. Alas, the importance of buying the crucial half point past the 3 rears it’s ugly head here. We’ll take the push and fight another day.
  15. W – AZ -.5 vs. PHI / NO +9 vs. KC (-110)
    In the battle of Bird-based playoff contenders, I found the Cardinals to be less faulty. The Eagles are riding a dual-threat rookie quarterback and receivers I’ve never heard of. The Cardinals have an established dual-threat quarterback and receivers I have heard of. As such, edge Cardinals, and this came to fruition. The Saints kept it close, and closed this bet for us.
  16. W – TEN -3 vs. DET / CLE 0 @ NYG (-120)
    The Titans closed easily as predicted against a completely outmatched and out-motivated Lions squad. New York failed to generate much of any offense after flailing on fourth down in the first half.
  17. L – Baker Mayfield to Rush over 20.5 Yards (+225, Half-Unit)
  18. ? – PIT -13 @ CIN (+100)
    This one is pending the Monday Night result.

That puts as at 9.5-6.5-1 for this week, with one pending. This puts us at 96.5-71.5-3 (this includes Thursday Night Football’s bets as well) for the year. As you may be able to tell, I’m off from work for the rest of the year hence the increased bet volume. Expect this until the New Year, especially with the NBA and another couple weeks of NFL coming up.

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