Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 4, 2020)

Okay, after my talk of discipline I may have been less than sober for many of the bets we’re riding with this weekend. In a way, they each make sense in a vacuum. However, as a whole, there’s a lot of over-indexing, and getting in on bad lines. In any case, here we go:

  1. JAX +3 @ CIN (-105)
    The Jaguars are coming into this with ten days of rest, the Bungles coming in after playing an entire overtime against the Eagles. Further, the Jaguars were getting three points. Overall, both teams are fairly poor quality, and both show flashes of talent. However, I’ll take the rest and the points here.
  2. AZ -3.5 @ CAR (-105)
    I think the Cardinals and Kyler Murray are good. Last week was an aberration and Murray won’t be that sloppy again. While a few key cogs on offense, including DeAndre Hopkins are questionable for Sunday’s game. I have faith that Kliff Kingsbury has some tricks up his sleeve that will likely score some cheap points against a permeable Panthers Defense.
  3. CHI +8.5 vs. IND/ TB -1 vs. LAC (-110)
    I don’t know where my mind went on this one. I can see myself thinking “Tampa Bay can’t lose to the Chargers, they’re the best team in the NFC South”, and I can stand by that. In regards to Chicago… I guess I really want Allen Robinson to be successful. I hope they can cover against a Colts team that has looked unbeatable at points this season.
  4. SEA -.5 @ MIA/ KC -1 @ NE (-110)
    Another “who messes this up?” type of bet. I feel like these teasers always burn one unexpected way. It’s too obvious. The Kansas City/New England game looks to be postponed at least a couple days, with Cam Newton himself testing positive. If the game is played only a few days after originally scheduled, it’ll be Jarett Stidham playing for New England. At -1 that should be an incredibly easy cover for the Chiefs.
  5. TB -1 vs. LAC/KC-1 @ NE (-110)
    A combination of two bets above. Let’s see who messes this up.
  6. SEA @ MIA Over 49/AZ @ CAR Over 46.5 (-110)
    I didn’t take a total bet last week after leaning on several totals in my personal review of the board. This week, I decided to take the plunge on two games that I thought looked primed for a shootout. The Cardinals injuries loom large, but the leaky defenses all around pushed me over the edge.
  7. LAL -4.5 vs. MIA First Half (-115)
    A last minute bet on the Lakers to win the first half by 5 or more points.
  8. Carson Wentz to Rush Over 25.5 Yards (+190)
    I have an irrational love for longest reception and rushing yardage bets. The Eagles are depleted in regards to offensive skill position players, and so is the 49ers D-Line. Between those two factors, I see Wentz running a handful of times tonight, hopefully eclipsing 26 yards.
  9. Anthony Davis Over 1.5 Made Threes (+190, Half Unit)
    AD looks better from outside than Danny Green and KCP. I’ll take the odds.
  10. BAL @ WAS Over 9.5 Points First Quarters (-110)
    I think Baltimore comes out angry after last week’s result against the Chiefs. Further, this is almost a home game for the Ravens as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they score all ten points in the first quarter themselves.

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