Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 3, 2020)

  1. W – LAL -2 vs. DEN 1Q (-110)
    Started the weekend slate a little early with a unit on the Lakers game. As a Lakers fan I try to keep business and personal matters separate, but I had a thought that the Lakers would come out fast, and keep things close to start the game. I had a lean for the half as well, but didn’t end up pulling the trigger on that one unfortunately. Excited to see my team in the Finals where I’ll aim to steer clear of bets and simply enjoy as a fan.
  2. WTB -6 @ DEN (-115)
    Tampa won comfortably as the offense had enough success, along with great field position courtesy of the Bucs’ defense taking advantage of two backup quarterbacks in Denver. There was never much doubt that Tampa would cover after twenty minutes or so after the start of the game.
  3. WCAR+6.5 @ LAC (-110)
    The Panthers were in the lead the entire game, but it was mostly off the leg of Kicker Joey Slye who kicked five successful field goals to fuel Carolina’s 21 to 16 win. Panthers unders/covers seem more intriguing moving forward as the offense appears competent. The defense is still leaky despite holding firm this week against the rookie quarterback.
  4. LTEN -2.5 @ MIN (-110)
    The early red zone opportunities that were converted into mere field goals bode poorly for this bet, as the Titans were allowing the Vikings to stay very much in the game. After missing a couple touchdown opportunities the Vikings firmly took control of the game until choking late. The Titans missed a two point conversion that would’ve gotten us to the cover. A bad beat based on a line that seemed too good to be true. Luckily, we had some insurance on this one.
  5. WLAR +8 @ BUF / MIN +8.5 vs. TEN (-110)
    The Rams had us sweating it out early, but they surprisingly pulled through late despite losing to the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills late in the fourth. The Vikings avoided going 0-3 in an incredibly ugly fashion, telegraphing their impending playoff miss. A teaser that was deflated early on with the Rams, but ended up comfortably covering.
  6. LAZ +.5 vs. DET/ TB +1 @ DEN (-110)
    Trying to get in on the Cardinals gravy train got me. The Lions remember last year’s tie, and had the desperation of a team avoiding a winless fate (like their division-rivals the Vikings). Unfortunately, the Cardinals offense made too many mistakes, and wasted a safe Tampa Bay cover. Goes to show, going against the public, and trusting your initial instincts despite line movements is advice that I should’ve followed here.
  7. WSEA @ DAL First Half Over 27.5 (-110)
    When D.K. Metcalf got a would-be touchdown reception punched out the back of the end zone for a touchback, I thought this bet was lost. However, the secondaries of these teams are both leaky enough that other big plays ensued after this initial miss. An easy cover about half way through the second quarter.
  8. WCIN +5.5 @ PHI (-110)
    A tie! The Eagles actually couldn’t do it, and Joe Burrow covers again! The Eagles really did sign a deal with the devil to win that Super Bowl as the team has underperformed due to a plague of injuries ever since winning (even during that run). Joe Burrow does enough, and neither team wanted to win. I would’ve vastly preferred a close Eagles win in regulation as a touchdown by the Eagles would put us out of the money, but offensive ineptitude wins!
  9. W – Aaron Rodgers Longest Pass Over 39.5 Yards (+100)
    I don’t know why I couldn’t leave good enough alone. A winning day without some needless props, but here we are. I see these kinds of props and it’s really just cheering for excitement, which is as undisciplined of approach you can have, put in the heat of Sunday I couldn’t help myself. Rodgers found Allen Lazard out from a leaky Saints secondary and hit him for 48 yards early in the second quarter to seal this bet.
  10. L – Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (+250 / Quarter Unit)
    Rushing for 13 yards in the first half seemed encouraging enough, but the Saints rush defense played much better than their secondary. Rodgers was able to make several long passes, but didn’t need to scramble to secure a Packers win.
  11. L Aaron Rodgers Over 23.5 Completions (+100)
    The recipe for the Packers offensive success against the Saints was long passes, not the dink/dunk kind we needed to cover this bet. While it was close, Aaron Jones was a bit too successful on the ground to close this one.

On the day we ended 6-4.25. Overall, on the season we are 16-15.5-1. A good comeback effort from last week for sure, but a couple bad beats/unnecessary prop bets to end the day. Onto Week Four.

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