Sports Bet Preview (NFL Week 3, 2020)

If all goes to plan, there shouldn’t be too much more than posted above in terms of bets for this week. I placed a couple prop bets on the Thursday Night game, so I’ll review those briefly first:

  1. W – Gardner Minshew to complete over 23.5 passes (+100)
    They were ugly passes, and most came once the game was securely out of reach via dump-offs to James Robinson/Chris Thompson. However, ugly or not, we got there.
  2. Push – Gardner Minshew, James Robinson, and DJ Chark Under 445.5 Yards (-115)
    Refunded as Chark was out for the game. No bet.
  3. L – Gardner Minshew Longest Pass Completion to be Over 40.5 Yards (+100)
    The Dolphins were incredibly cognizant of not getting beat over the top. Further, Chark’s ability to stretch the field was sorely missed in this game as it didn’t appear that any receivers were consistently running down field, even when the Jaguars desperately needed to catch up.

Thursday night result: 1-1-1 and given the odds, we broke even on Thursday night. Total standings for the year rest at 10-11.25-1. Moving onto the real Week 3 slate:

  1. TB -6 @ DEN (-115)
    I strongly believe that last week’s Denver cover against Pittsburgh was largely due to the element of surprise and the classic bump that a backup QB receives the first time they enter the game unexpectedly. Tampa Bay has a strong Defense (that in theory will travel well) and I think the Bucs win by over a touchdown. Unfortunately, I took this line early in the week thinking it’d increase, but at the time of writing the line is at -5. If you can grab it at that, there’s even more value here.
  2. CAR+6.5 @ LAC (-110)
    Similar to the above, the Chargers caught the Chiefs by surprise last week by starting Justin Herbert and receiving a similar ‘backup QB bump’. The Panthers have had all week to prepare for the Chargers, and should be ready. Further, the Panthers offense has looked fairly strong this season thus far, with Teddy Bridgewater looking to have good chemistry with his receivers. I’ll take the Panthers getting the points on the road in a close win/loss against this Chargers team in flux.
  3. TEN -2.5 @ MIN (-110)
    The Titans offense has looked good in their last two games, but their defense hasn’t been as stout as last year during the Titan’s AFC Championship game run. Allowing a Jaguars team to score 30 points at home isn’t ideal, but the Vikings have looked absolutely woeful this year. It doesn’t help that they continue to lose defensive playmakers week after week after already being heavily impacted by opt-outs prior to the season starting. The only fear I have on this one is Minnesota coming out like a desperate injured animal as they play to avoid a 0-3 start to the season. I have faith in the Titans, and am hoping that Mike Vrabel has made the defensive adjustments needed to get this defense back to form.
  4. LAR +8 @ BUF / MIN +8.5 vs. TEN (-110)
    A couple teasers to end my betting slate for the week. A wise man once told me to only tease over 7 points, and both these lines were compatible. I think we can hit the sweet spot in the Vikings game, with Tennessee eking out a close win, but the Vikings covering this teased-out spread. The Rams and Bills are both 2-0, but the Bills have only played the Dolphins and Jets thus far (not the fiercest competition I’d say). I think the Rams should be able to keep this one close/win on the road for Robert Woods as he returns to the place where his NFL career started.
  5. AZ +.5 vs. WAS / TB +1 @ DEN (-110)
    I’ve been missing out on the Cardinals gravy train thus far this year, and I think it’s about time for me to wade my way in. The Cardinals have shown a great amount of offensive prowess, between the strong connection of Kyler Murray/DeAndre Hopkins, to the great rushing ability of Murray, the offense has been firing on all cylinders. I don’t see how Washington keeps up in this game, and believe Arizona should be able to win to start their season 3-0. I wanted to take advantage of the Tampa Bay line lowering and thought the game would be a great teaser mate along with Arizona/insurance in case the Bucs play down to an injury riddled Broncos team.

Hopefully no more irrational chasing this week! Get your bets in, and let’s make some money!

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