Sports Bet Review (NFL Week 2, 2020)

  1. L KC -8.5 @ LAC (-110)
    Justin Herbert starting for the Chargers was an unexpected wrinkle for this bet, but I thought it to be a positive factor when it was first announced. However, what I didn’t factor in was the ineptitude put on display by the Chiefs Defense, allowing Chargers Receivers large areas of cushion, and poor tackling leading to additional YAC. Further, the Chiefs Offense failed to produce against a talented/stout Chargers Defense. Rather than a blowout win, the Chiefs eke out a slim win in overtime and will try to learn from this close call in their pursuit of a championship repeat.
  2. W BAL -7 @ HOU (-105)
    A massive thank you to the Ravens for performing as expected and preventing a completely win-less day for our betting outfit here. The defense played as expected, and even though the Houston offense contained Lamar Jackson better than I expected, the turnovers kept this game securely in the hands of Baltimore for the entire duration.
  3. L MIN +3 @ IND (-110)
    The Vikings are actually very bad, and the Colts shooting themselves in the foot may actually be an anomaly. Jonathan Taylor was able to fuel the offense singlehandedly (with the great Indianapolis O-Line), which gives me hope for this team, grounded in strong fundamentals. Kirk Cousins looks far worse than last year without Diggs stretching the field, and the defense has major gaps from COVID opt-outs.
  4. L BUF -6 @ MIA (-110)
    Fitzmagic is to Fitztragic as Jekyll is to Hyde, and this week we witnessed the magic. It wasn’t enough to win Miami the game, but it was enough for the Dolphins to cover this bet instead of taking their tank gracefully (which would’ve allowed the Bills to win by 11). If the Bills can’t even beat the Dolphins, are they truly contenders? Or, could this just be a case of playing in Miami in September and inter-division shenanigans?
  5. L DET +6.5 @ GB (-110)
    The Lions going up with early 14 points all but secured a sad finish to the day. After this point the Packers came back with fury, and Detroit’s Defense could do little but watch. My Lions love continues to look more foolish as the weeks go on. Green Bay is the real deal and the Aaron Rodgers revenge tour is in full swing.
  6. KC -2.5 @ LAC / SF -1 @ NYJ (-110)
    The 49ers covered their side of the bet despite losing multiple first round picks on defense, their starting running back, and most of all Jimmy Garoppolo looked to sustain a fairly significant injury. Luckily for San Francisco, they faced one of the worst teams in the league, and won comfortably.
    Harrison Butker secured the overtime win for his team and this bet. The Chiefs won’t likely repeat such an ugly result against such a poor opponent this season, and I’ll try to wash this one from my memory. Kickers are important!
  7. LPIT -6.5 vs. DEN (-110)
    My late pick of the week, and this time it didn’t pan out. The vaunted Steelers Defense looked fairly permeable against the fearsome backup quarterback Jeff Driskel and the Broncos league of young receivers. There was a chance for the Steelers to come back and cover at the end of the game, but James Conners couldn’t finish in the end zone (probably smart for the real game) and Pittsburgh ended up winning by only five. An unexpected result from my perspective for sure, especially given the quarterback situation for the Broncos.
  8. LKC @ LAC Over 47 (-110)
    A panic pick I made to chase losses from the morning. As always, this is a mistake. The Chargers Defense was able to largely contain a Chiefs Offense with Super Bowl aspirations. Don’t chase.
  9. W LAL -3 vs. DEN 1Q (-105)
    Moving to NBA in the chances to get a win anywhere (clearly I didn’t listen to my future self’s advice above). LeBron James and the Lakers got on a hot streak sparked by a KCP (yes, KCP) three pointer. Denver then allowed an 18-2 run and the Lakers comfortably cruised to an eight point first quarter advantage.
  10. WRussell Wilson Longest Pass Over 37.5 Yards (+100)
    Props… as you can tell, I was spiraling by this point in the afternoon. However, 37.5 yards is just far too low of a mark for a quarterback like Russell Wilson with weapons like Tyler Lockette and D.K. Metcalf. The latter of which Wilson connected with on a 54 yard touchdown. This was one of my favorite props last post-season, and old habits die hard.
  11. LRussell Wilson Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (+300 / Quarter Unit)
    My thought here was the stout Patriots Secondary would push Wilson to use his legs at least a handful of times this game. Further, the lack of quick linebackers would enable chunk plays from Wilson on the ground. In the first half this bet was trending in the right direction. However, some dump off passes that could’ve gone for nominal rushing yardage eventually sunk this bet with Wilson hitting a couple yards shy of the mark, with 39 yards of rushing to end the night. Great odds, a partial bet, and a slim loss, so I don’t feel too poorly about this one.
  12. L – NE +4.5 @ SEA (-105)
    More spiraling. I saw line movement, and jumped on it. A team with a new QB vs. a franchise stalwart? Sure. Away in a pandemic year? Why not. “In Bill Belichick, we trust”, as the locals say, and that’s good enough for me. Let’s just throw discipline out the window. I hate missed field goals, and Nick Folk missed one to put the Pats up 17-14 mid way through the second quarter. Ultimately, a missed field goal/two-point conversion was the difference in this bet, as the failed last second touchdown attempt wouldn’t have mattered if either of the aforementioned bad omens didn’t occur. I’d classify this one as a bad beat.

Overall for this week we ended an uninspiring 4 – 7.25. For the season we’re looking at 9-10.25. Special shoutout to the Lions and Vikings really making me look like a fool. No more chasing ; we’re going to stay disciplined next week, and I’m sure we can win this back.

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