Sports Bet Review (NFL Conference Championship Round, 2019)

1) Patrick Mahomes Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (+200)The Chiefs always design a couple rush plays for Mahomes given his athleticism and his background in baseball (giving more confidence in his ability to slide). A long rushing TD sealed this bet, but beyond that, there were several other opportunities for additional rushing yards. I like Mahomes for rushing yards in the Super Bowl as it seems like a consistent plus play for the Chiefs that they often pull out in a pinch. The 49ers also struggle against mobile QBs.

2) Ryan Tannehill Longest Pass Completion Over 39.5 Yards (+110)The game script was perfect for this bet for much of the game. The Chiefs came out of the gates slowly, but showed their offensive consistency after a shaky first 12 minutes. Tannehill had to play catchup through the air, but failed to consistently sustain drives. A wasted third quarter could’ve been saved by the desperation drive at the end of the fourth, but the Chiefs defense was able to hold the Titans inexperienced wide receivers in check. This bet still feels good, it’s a shame Tannehill was unable to capitalize on the seemingly-solid opportunity.

3) Ryan Tannehill Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (+200)This game got out of hand quickly for the Titans after a quick start. The Chiefs run defense was more disciplined than expected, and opportunities for running in general were few and far between given the game script that occurred here. The good news is that I only sprinkled a little down on this bet (I should start marking units), so it doesn’t sting too badly.

4) SF vs. GB No Team to Score 3 Consecutive Scores (+160)What seemed like a good idea during an early morning conversation turned sour after the 49ers completely dominated the first half. The Packers only drive into 49er’s territory ended with a turnover, and the 49ers rushed to far too much success. I don’t think I’ll take this kind of bet again moving forward.

5) SF vs. GB Over 5.5 Total QB Sacks (+110)The game ended with 4 overall sacks. The 49ers generated a lot of pressure, especially in the first quarter, but it mostly stayed as pressure. The Packers failed to generate much of anything on defense, but also had very few opportunities for sacks with Garoppolo only dropping back 8 times. Only a light bet on this one, so not a significant loss.

6) George Kittle to Score a TD (+120)Kittle came into the game more limited than I expected. While he was still able to make a major impact in the run game, his involvement in the pass game was nearly nonexistent. A large part of this was game script, with the 49ers going up big early, and Garoppolo not needing to attempt 10 passes until the 4th quarter. After only one catch (and target) this has taught me to take injury reports a bit more seriously. Akin to the previous bet, not a lot wagered on this one.

7) KC -1 vs. TEN, SF -1.5 vs. GB (-110)This was the main course of the weekend, with a double wager placed on this teaser. The Chiefs slow start made this one to sweat out, but ultimately the game was securely in their control for the second half.

As for the 49ers game, Mostert rushed 29 times for 220 yards and 4 TDS. Garoppolo was basically a handoff machine, and the Packers failed to stifle the 49ers rushing offense. The second half of the game felt like a formality after the Niners shutout the Packers 27-0 in the first.

A Chiefs/49ers Super Bowl was probably the ideal outcome for this weekend, giving us the best offense vs. the best defense. The over will likely be a good bet for the big game.

Overall, I end the week very slightly up, with a high odds bet, as well as my main teaser hitting.

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