Sports Bet Review (NFL Divisional Round, 2019)

1) Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 TD Passes (-130)Garoppolo scored on a passing TD early on. However, never quite had the right situation in future drives down the field. Deebo Samuel came up 1 yard short on one good opportunity, and the next best try came on a pair of George Kittle targets that came up a bit short. Rushing became the best game script for the 49ers to run, and they did so to a 47-19 run/rush ratio. For most of the second half, San Francisco drained the clock, and Garoppolo had little reason to pass.

2) Dalvin Cook to Score a TD (+105)The logic behind this bet was that I believed the Vikings would find themselves in a few scoring opportunities via chunk plays from Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. I believed that in these situations Cook would have several opportunities to score. Unfortunately, these opportunities never realized, with Cook only rushing for 18 yards (2 YPC). I’ll be weary of any RB prop to score moving forward.

3) SF -.5 vs. MIN, BAL -3.5 vs. TEN (-110)The Niners took care of business, shutting the Vikings out in the 2nd half. The defense was fully healthy, and it showed (also, the realization of Mosley as the starting CB over Witherspoon was also valuable).

The Titans came out of the gates with what appeared to be a lot more determination than the Ravens. Lamar Jackson rushed for over 100 yards, but Derrick Henry rushed for nearly 200, and the Ravens were mostly locked out of this game. The Titans are getting hot at the most important time, and will have an extra day of rest going into next week. Depending on how many points the Titans will be given, the Titans and the under may be good targets for next week.

4) Lamar Jackson to Score a TD (+100)Lamar Jackson racked up the rushing yardage, however the offense struggled in the red zone against the Titans Defense. Ultimately, the lack of touchdown production led to the Ravens losing the game.

5) Ryan Tannehill Longest Pass Completion Over 39.5 Yards (+100)This bet seemed reliable given Ryan Tannehill’s stable of receivers. I figured with Henry attracting so much defensive attention, Tannehill would have a few good opportunities for a deep shot. This turned out to be the case, and this bet hit fairly early on with a 45 yard TD pass.

6) TEN SU @ BAL (+115)I made this bet during halftime to hedge when it really felt to me like the Titans were in control of the game. The field goal prior to the half was even more of a flag that the Ravens were going to be unable to mount a comeback. Saturday was a rough day in terms of bets for me, only hitting 2/6, without this bet, the day would’ve been even more bleak.

7) Deshuan Watson Longest Pass Completion Over 40.5 Yards (+100)A quick 54 yard pass at the start of the first quarter squared this bet away very early on. I thought that the Texans would be playing comeback, and that the Chiefs Secondary is fairly suspect. While at this point the score was still 0-0, the Texans were able to quickly take advantage of a blown coverage.

8) Patrick Mahomes Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-120)Mahomes ended as the Chiefs leading rusher. Similar to last week, I played it a bit safe and didn’t take the over 30.5 rushing yards at higher odds, but I only expected a couple blown play scrambles vs. a few planned QB runs from the Chiefs.

9) SF vs. MIN Over 39, KC -3.5 vs. HOU (-110)The Vikings failing to score in the second half of this game sunk the bet, as things were looking good at the end of the first half. Even with the missed FG, the total was still at 24. Rather than coming out adjusted and reinvigorated, the Vikings came out flatter than the first half.

The Chiefs made this bet a bit nerve wrecking at first, but after taking the lead, they never looked back. It’s unfortunate the first leg of this bet failed.

10) Aaron Rodgers Longest Pass Completion Over 40.5 Yards (+100)A 40 yard TD pass felt just a little bad, as it was a perfect pass, just not for the purposes of this bet. Unfortunately for most of the second half the Packers were in ‘run the clock out’ mode and they didn’t need to attempt many long passes.

11) Devante Adams Over 6.5 Completions (-125)The Seahawks poor secondary was covered up by the Eagles worse passing attack last week. Adams quickly racked up yardage and scores as the focal point of the Green Bay offense. I only wish I also took Adams to score a touchdown (or more) as well. Overall, the Packers Offense appears to be back.

12) Russell Wilson Longest Pass Completion Over 40.5 Yards (+100)The Packers Secondary performed very well against the Seahawks, and Wilson wasn’t able to land a deep shot. If they were able to, they could still be in contention for the championship. However, the Packers will be moving on, due in some part to the Seahawks inability to sustain drives/score.

13) Russell Wilson Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-120)The efficiency of the Seahawks RBs was similar to last week. As such, Wilson took the lead from a rushing standpoint, and prolonged some drives with his legs as he does in the playoffs. The playoffs are the time to go all out, and this includes surprise scrambles from any remotely mobile QB. Wilson is beyond that, and this will always be a bet that feels good.

Overall: 6/13

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