1) BUF @ HOU Over 38.5, NE +1 vs. TEN (-110)Come playoffs, it really feels like we know all of these teams. We’re past matchups against the Raiders and Colts, or bad teams playing bad teams.
In the first game of the slate, we know that Will Fuller is the spark that makes the Texans offense successful (and he’s on track to play as of this writing). We also know the Texans have played much better at home. Hopefully, the return of JJ Watt is overstated, and it’s more of a diversion than anything else, meaning a susceptible Texans Defense. If this hold true, Josh Allen should be able to break through on enough plays to cover this over. I’m thinking this has a similar feeling to the Bills’ Week 16 matchup against the Pats, except with a more dangerous offense.
The Patriots haven’t played on Wild Card Weekend in a while. However, I don’t see the Titans ultimately coming out with the win. While the Titans are surging, I just can’t count the Patriots out at home. The Pats are probably elbow deep in “nobody believes in us” fever at this point. Aside from last week, I haven’t looked silly betting on the Pats in a long while.
2) MIN @ NO Over 49.5 (-110)The NFL did the Vikings a huge favor by scheduling this game in the Sunday afternoon slot (AKA the ‘Kirk Cousins Zone’). The Saints have played at a blazing pace on offense recently, and the Vikings should have a healthy Dalvin Cook/Adam Thielen. For whatever reason, these two teams seem to play each other in shootouts a lot, and I think the Vikings will need to score into the 30’s if they want a shot at moving on. I’d be surprised if this game didn’t hit 40 by the half.
3) SEA -1.5 @ PHI (-115)In an injury ridden matchup, I can’t see the Eagles secondary holding back Wilson and the Seahawks receivers. The Seahawks have been playing better on the road, and while their defense has been fairly porous, the Eagles are depleted on the offensive side of the ball as well. Unfortunately, I don’t see a path to victory for the Eagles in this matchup, part of me is already bracing for the Eagles fans booing at halftime.
4) BUF @ HOU Under 44.0 (-110)Given Will Fuller is slated to play in this game the point total rose a bit. While this is contrary to my first bet, there is a 6 point sweet spot where both of these bets will hit. I don’t think a 24-21 game is unreasonable, and will hope for that result come Saturday night.