I’ve been writing retrospectives on my bets throughout 2019, documenting lessons learned, and keeping track of the units I’ve gained (or lost). This isn’t the typical format, as most folks focus much more on on bet PREVIEWS in efforts to share their thoughts/bets with their viewers and hopefully make everyone some money. I’ve finally decided to hop on the bandwagon and start posting about my bets prior to game time. I’ll update this article as the week goes on as I place wagers based on line movements/how my sentiments change.
1) NO -6.5 @ CAR, KC -1.5 vs. LAR, WAS +17 @ DAL (+150)
2) TEN SU @ HOU, NE SU vs. MIA, NO SU @ CAR (-110)
3) SF -3 @ SEA (-125)Week 17 is tricky in that less than half of NFL teams actually play meaningful football. This results in starters playing for half the game, more lackadaisical play, etc. As such, I tried to find meaningful games and/or games where the stats. have been too loud to ignore. In addition, there are some teams peaking at the right time, while others seem to be sputtering longingly into the offseason. As such, there’s some softness there as well.
In terms of the Saints, they can still get a bye in the playoffs, and a big part of that is beating the Panthers who have been absolutely terrible recently. Will Grier has only contributed to Carolina’s folly, and the only thing they’ll be chasing on Sunday are single-season records for CMC. I expect the Saints to win, and win comfortably. Even if they sit Brees in the fourth (which I don’t think Brees will do willingly given how Bridgewater performed earlier in the year) the Saints have a much higher caliber of backup QB compared to most other teams.
The Chiefs have a very slim chance at a bye if the Patriots lose. That being said, the Pats are playing the Dolphins. The good news is that these games are played at the same time. It’s unlikely that the Chiefs would sit their starters prior to the 2nd half. Beyond that, the Chargers haven’t shown much recently. I am always a bit worried about Phillip Rivers/the Chargers propensity to charge into fierce comeback attempts. However, these typically fall short, so I feel good about the Chiefs laying the 1.5 points.
Since the bye, the Cowboys have only had 2 games result in a final score beyond the 17 points we’re getting with Washington here. Those two games were against the New York Giants, and the Jekyll side of the Rams. Washington has been producing offense recently, only scoring less than 19 points one time in the last 6 weeks. In addition, they have kept games close (at least within 17 points), and have nothing further to gain by losing this game. However they have a lot to gain, as acting as spoiler to the Cowboys is something I’m sure Washington would love to do.
New England needs to win to secure the bye. I’d be shocked if Bill Belichick allowed the Dolphins and Fitzmagic steal the bye from him. This should also be a great ‘get-right game’ for the Pats prior to playing in the AFC Divisional Game.
The Titans absolutely need the win, and despite what the Texans have been saying, I do not believe that they will play all of their starters. Further, their offense sputtered on Saturday after Will Fuller was sidelined. He isn’t expected to play. Between the Titans urgency and Texans apathy I feel like the Titans should be able to close this one out.
Seattle just resigned Marshawn Lynch with Robert Turbin in the backfield like we’re back in 2014. Both players are familiar with the system, and they’re fresh. However, it’s yet to be seen how game-ready these two are. In addition, Seattle may have less to play for than the 49ers given how the playoff situation during the day shakes out. If they can’t secure a bye, it may change how the Seahawks think about this game.
I feel good about this bet from the onset, blending meaningful games, favorable spreads/matchups compared to recent performance, and cheering against the Cowboys.