1) MIA +3.5 @ NYG (-115)
Admittedly, I underestimated the Giants offense, and assumed they’d regress under Eli. Unfortunately, the Dolphins lack of a secondary struck again. This time, the Dolphins weren’t able to get into the red zone with regularity like they did against the Jets. I thought that the last game was a good sign, and that the TDS would come this week. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case and the Giants ran away with this one. There just wasn’t enough time for the Dolphins to come back.
This game is a reminder to not break a cardinal rule – Do not bet on bad teams playing other bad teams. The only constant is inconsistency in these situations.
2) TEN -3 vs. HOU (-105)
The Titans were uneven in this one, after tying the game, the offense stagnated. What happened in previous games is that Derrick Henry would bail the offense out in various situations, as well as making sure the defense always having to ensure he was accounted for. In this game, the Texans were able to contain Henry as well as any team has in the last several weeks. The Titans will have another chance in a couple weeks to play the Texans again. However it seems like the divisional rivals have the recipe to take out their rivals.
3) MIA +10 @ NYG, KC -3 vs. DEN (-120)
The chiefs seemed like an excellent value, at home with a defense on the upswing against a rookie QB playing in a hostile environment. The snow added another element, keeping the game a low scoring affair. The Broncos failed to generate much of anything on offense, and I regret not taking this spread straight up.
I thought that the Dolphins would win this one and thought of that as the constant to hold. A wiser decision would’ve been to trust the Patriots or Seahawks on the road.
4) NE -3 @ CIN, SEA 0 @ CAR, GB +1.5 vs. CHI (+170)
This was the first bet I took for this week after seeing the initial spreads. New England’s quickly rose, and it felt like Vegas was penalizing the Patriots for some recent losses. The Seahawks on the road have been excellent this year, and the Panthers have been very bad recently. While they were able to almost come back into this game, Kyle Allen was very sloppy, and his turnovers stopped the Panthers from truly mounting a comeback.
The Packers struggled to produce offense consistently against the Bears, but ultimately, they were able to hold the Bears when it counted despite numerous lapses on defense earlier in the game. The Packers certainly do not feel like a 11-3 team, but they seem to be able to play well in the clutch.
5) BUF @ PIT Under 36.5 (-110) Two strong defenses, a young QB away who has been more effective running than passing, and a third string QB formed the perfect storm to hit the under.