Bet Review (NFL Week 13, 2019)

1) NO -.5 @ ATL, GB -.5 @ NYG (-110)These seemed like low spreads for good teams against bad teams. Both had moments where the game got tight, but both showed why they are contenders for the NFC. The Saints were able to stave off late game heroics from Younghoe Koo, and Rodgers finally showed what everyone was expecting in the preseason from the Packers offense.

2) CLE @ PIT Under 39 (-110)The Steelers defense came through as scoring was stifled in the 4th quarter. Baker struggled on the road, and as Tomlin said “Hodges won’t kill us”. Against bad offenses, I like the Steelers going under as low-scoring/grindy games are their only path to victory with this roster.

3) KC -4 vs. OAK, CIN +9.5 vs. NYJ (-110)The Bengals didn’t try to hide that they were going for the win by re-insertimg Dalton into the lineup against a spotty Jets team at home. I believed that the Jets would be able to keep it close, but the defense looked bad on the road, and Darnold was unable to produce for most of the game.

I thought that the Raiders would play a bit harder after getting nearly shut out by the Jets last week, but it was another down performance against the Chiefs. What I thought would be a vulnerable secondary took advantage of Derek Carr, and a sloppy special teams play early set a negative tone for the Riaders from the start.

4) GB SU @ NYG, PHI SU @ MIA, BOS SU @ NYK, ORL SU vs. GSW (+162)

The Eagles really needed this game to stay ahead in the NFC East. Despite an early lead, the defense fell apart against a Dolpins team with nothing to lose.

The Celtics bounced back in New York, pulling out the win in the fourth quarter. The script was similar for Orlando who let the Warriors hang around, but ultimately pulled out the win.

5) PIT +8.5 vs. CLE, NE +3 @ HOU (-110)

The Steelers hit the under and ground out this game out which safely covered even their initial spread. Things went even better than expected for the Steelers, and there was little doubt throughout the game that this would be missed.

The same cannot be said for the Patriots who failed to even stay in competition throughout the game in Houston. The Brown, Gordon, and I’d even say Demariyus Thomas releases are now coming back to bite the Pats, whose best receiver was easily James White. Sanu is playing at an even lower level than when he was in Atlanta, and the two rookie wide receivers are dropping catches at a torrid rate. I’m still surprised the Pats lost, as this Texans team has been very inconsistent this season. Even in this game, their run game looked poor, but Watson was able to take advantage of softness (some of which was injury-related) and the game never seemed competitive.

I don’t think this changes anything for the Pats, and I still love them over bad teams.

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