Bet Review (NFL Week 11, 2019)

1) PIT +9 @ CLE, Under 46.5 (-110)

The Steelers defense looked opressive against the supposedly offensivley- competent Rams. This combined with the better coaching staff on the short week spelled out a defensive-low-scoring grind. While this was somewhat true, the Browns were the ones to put up points, not the Steelers. You truly cannot trust backup QBS.

2) NO +.5 @ TB, CAR +.5 vs. ATL (-110)The Saints returned to form, and Tampa’s propensity for turnovers helped out as well. I was weary of divisional weirdness, as is common is these games, but the Saints came out to a quick start. It never felt like the Bucs ever had a chance.

Atlanta came into the week 2-7 and is basically in the season-long equivalent of garbage time. A hopeless team with nothing to lose catches another divisional opponent off-guard, and wins another one by a big margin. Most baffling is that it doesn’t seem like there’s any one reason why the Falcons have turned it around (ex. notable return(s) from injury, coaching change, etc.). While pre-bye, picking against the Falcons was one of the safest bets, this will have to be reconsidered moving forward.

3) MIA +6 vs. BUF (-110

Miami played well the last two weeks and I thought at least the offense would continue to click against an increasingly questionable Bills team on the road. What happened was both teams regressed to their mean, the Dolphins showing their lack of talent and organizetion, and the Bills showing their defensive prowess. Josh Allen keeping plays alive with his legs and tight window throws (particularly to Josh Brown) sunk this bet almost from the start of the game.

4) DAL 0 @ DET, NE +3 @ PHI, SF -3 vs. AZ (+140)

Every single one of these games had me nervous early with all of the slow starts. Ultimately, each team pulled it out when it mattered, a benefit of betting on talented and/or well coached teams.

The 49ers defense is papering over Jimmy G’s now-weekly mind-blowing mistake compounded by the lack of elite talent at receiver. The Cardinals are starting to click and are the best “last place in a division team” in the NFL.

The Cowboys continue to be mired in sunk-cost fallacy, deciding between running with Zeke despite diminishing returns or going with Daks surprisingly efficient/potent passing attack – driving up his value. Somewhere between this, they allowed the Lions to remain competitive the entire game despite multiple injuries. Thankfully, the Cowboys were able to keep it together this week, and connected in the red zone when it mattered.

The Eagles seemingly disappeared in the second half, allowing the Patriots to comeback unimpeded. I was a bit worried with the lower line, but ultimately went with Bill Belichick and the better game plan.

The 49ers may be a stay-away in future weeks with upcoming matchups with the Packers, Ravens, and Saints (but the over may be an opportunity there.).

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