1) SEA -1 @ ATL, LAR -6.5 vs. CIN (-110)
Lessons Learned:
- In hindsight should’ve taken Seattle on its own here.
- Don’t let garbage time fool you, the Falcons are absolutely terrible.
- Rams in London were predictable, but it didn’t feel as safe as it should’ve.
Verdict: Good tease, felt like the lines should’ve been reversed. I expect the Falcons to start having Washington/Miami-esque lines.
2A) CAR +6 @ SF (-110)
Lessons Learned:
- I thought this may be a close/low scoring game, but it turns out Kyle Allen is a backup QB after all.
- Based on my perceived game script this wager was a hedge based on line movements.
- Niners fired on all cylinders, and controlled the game from the start.
2B) IND 0 vs. DEN, SF +0.5 (-110)
- Colts really made me sweat this one out, but the Broncos defense has turned it around (Bradley Chubb Ewing Theory)
Verdict: I should’ve believed in the 49ers. Colts are well-coached and can win close ones, but Denver may not be a sure-fire loser.
3) NO -4.5 vs. AZ, NE -7 vs. CLE (-110)
- The Saints defense is very good, the Cardinals defense is very young and injured. 4.5 seemed safe.
- Brees return marks the Saints return as an NFC contender, and the whole team seemed energized.
- Got in on the Pats line at a bad time, but the tease down was enough to cover comfortably (and ended up covering 13 anyway).
- Pats are too well-run to doubt against bad teams.
Verdict: Wagered on good teams against bad teams. Typically a safe approach.
