Bet Review (NFL Week 8, 2019)

1) SEA -1 @ ATL, LAR -6.5 vs. CIN (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • In hindsight should’ve taken Seattle on its own here.
  • Don’t let garbage time fool you, the Falcons are absolutely terrible.
  • Rams in London were predictable, but it didn’t feel as safe as it should’ve.

Verdict: Good tease, felt like the lines should’ve been reversed. I expect the Falcons to start having Washington/Miami-esque lines.

2A) CAR +6 @ SF (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • I thought this may be a close/low scoring game, but it turns out Kyle Allen is a backup QB after all.
  • Based on my perceived game script this wager was a hedge based on line movements.
    Niners fired on all cylinders, and controlled the game from the start.

2B) IND 0 vs. DEN, SF +0.5 (-110)

  • Colts really made me sweat this one out, but the Broncos defense has turned it around (Bradley Chubb Ewing Theory)

Verdict: I should’ve believed in the 49ers. Colts are well-coached and can win close ones, but Denver may not be a sure-fire loser.

3) NO -4.5 vs. AZ, NE -7 vs. CLE (-110)

  • The Saints defense is very good, the Cardinals defense is very young and injured. 4.5 seemed safe.
    Brees return marks the Saints return as an NFC contender, and the whole team seemed energized.
    Got in on the Pats line at a bad time, but the tease down was enough to cover comfortably (and ended up covering 13 anyway).
    Pats are too well-run to doubt against bad teams.

Verdict: Wagered on good teams against bad teams. Typically a safe approach.

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