1) NE -17 vs. NYG (-110)
- New England against bad teams is very safe.
- The first quarter is a facade.
Verdict: Ride the Pats against bad teams.
2) JAX +4.5 vs. NO, TEN +7.5 @ DEN (-110)
- Despite Ramsey returning, this game was a display of the Jags offensive floor (it is low).
- I thought home field + points would be enough, but the Jags thought no.
- I cannot believe I trusted Mariota.
Verdict: Dammit Jags, Minshew has to be better than 6 points. Don’t look to games with two bad teams.
3) KC -4 vs. HOU, Over 55 (+264)
- Game was trending well until Mahomes ankle was tweaked.
- KC run defense is abhorrent.
- Houston offense is starting to click and the bad defense helped a ton.
- Scoring stalled near the end due to uncharacteristic turnovers.
Verdict: Chiefs aren’t as steady to win with Mahomes hobbled, but the over against a fast paced offense seems like a safe bet.
4) PHI +9 @ MIN, SEA +4.5 @ CLE (-110)
- CLE is as bad as advertised last week. SEA likes to make it exciting, but it never felt like they were out of control.
- Is Philly good? Are the Vikings bad? Was this home field advantage, or is the Eagles offense not good? Questions still remain.
Verdict: Philly can’t be trusted, the Browns are unpredictable, but the Seahawks may be the genuine article.
5) SF +3 @ LAR (+100)
- Jared Goff has the worst Superbowl hangover, or maybe it’s Gurley.
- 49ers defense is the real strength as the offense can be spotty (young skill players felt here).
- Rams home field advantage doesn’t feel like they just went to the Superbowl.
Verdict: Niners seem to hit the under, but can also win.