Bet Review (Week 6, 2019)

1) NE -17 vs. NYG (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • New England against bad teams is very safe.
  • The first quarter is a facade.

Verdict: Ride the Pats against bad teams.

2) JAX +4.5 vs. NO, TEN +7.5 @ DEN (-110)

Lessons Learned;

  • Despite Ramsey returning, this game was a display of the Jags offensive floor (it is low).
  • I thought home field + points would be enough, but the Jags thought no.
  • I cannot believe I trusted Mariota.

Verdict: Dammit Jags, Minshew has to be better than 6 points. Don’t look to games with two bad teams.

3) KC -4 vs. HOU, Over 55 (+264)

  • Lessons Learned:
    • Game was trending well until Mahomes ankle was tweaked.
      KC run defense is abhorrent.
      Houston offense is starting to click and the bad defense helped a ton.
      Scoring stalled near the end due to uncharacteristic turnovers.

    Verdict: Chiefs aren’t as steady to win with Mahomes hobbled, but the over against a fast paced offense seems like a safe bet.

    4) PHI +9 @ MIN, SEA +4.5 @ CLE (-110)

    Lessons Learned:

    • CLE is as bad as advertised last week. SEA likes to make it exciting, but it never felt like they were out of control.
    • Is Philly good? Are the Vikings bad? Was this home field advantage, or is the Eagles offense not good? Questions still remain.

    Verdict: Philly can’t be trusted, the Browns are unpredictable, but the Seahawks may be the genuine article.

    5) SF +3 @ LAR (+100)

    Lessons Learned:

    • Jared Goff has the worst Superbowl hangover, or maybe it’s Gurley.
    • 49ers defense is the real strength as the offense can be spotty (young skill players felt here).
    • Rams home field advantage doesn’t feel like they just went to the Superbowl.

    Verdict: Niners seem to hit the under, but can also win.

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