Bet Review (Week 5, 2019)

1) LAR SU @ SEA (+105)

Lessons learned:

  • Jared Goff is unreliable at home and away. Anywhere near a competent defense will ruffle him.
  • Rams Defense is overrated at the moment. Undisciplined against mobile QBs, making the opposing receivers much stronger plays.
  • Cooper Kupp is the only reliable piece of offense for the Rams.
  • Seattle O-line isn’t terrible anymore.

Verdict: Stop betting on the Rams. Stop betting on Thursday games.

2) NE @ WAS Over 42 (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • The Pats have a kicker problem.
  • Washington has a quarterback problem.
  • Needed the Pats to excecute the offense (no missed kicks or red zone turnovers).
  • Needed some success from Washington in garbage time.

Verdict: Only off by 2, lots of things had to break the wrong way. Would take this one again.

3) CHI +1 @ OAK, JAX +9.5 @ CAR, NE -9.5 @WAS (+170)

Lessons Learned:

  • The Raiders (especially Josh Jacobs) might be better than we thought.
  • Chase Daniels showed why he’s a backup quarterback. Although, the Bears did have their chance.
  • New England doesn’t have trap games.
  • Gardner Minshew keeps games close when they shouldn’t be.
  • Hard to say what will happen when two questionable offenses face off, maybe steer clear of these.

Verdict: Be cautious of meh offenses, but the structure here feels good to replicate.

4) AZ +3 @ CIN (-110)

Lessons Learned:

  • The Bungles are very bad, garbage time is nice for fantasy though.
  • The Cardinals will score (had plenty of missed opportunities, including a FG.).
  • Still a bit risky to bet on bad teams.

Verdict: Sorry Cincinnati.

5) TB +9.5 @ NO, Under 52 (-120)

Lessons Learned:

  • Jameis is still inconsistent, as is the Bucs secondary.
  • The Saints skill players are good enough to score without an elite QB against an inconsistent defense.
  • Home field advantage is meaningful for the Saints.

Verdict: Not too far off on this one. Saints offense was better than expected, and the defense nullified Mike Evans. Don’t like betting the spread and total.

6) LAC 0 vs. DEN, DAL +3 vs. GB (-120)

Lessons Learned;

  • The Chargers are cursed, and did not look interested in playing football today.
  • Green Bay defense looks very good, demonstrating TNF’s wonkiness.
  • Preseason is over for the Packers offense, missing Devante was well planned for.
  • The Cowboys offense’s reputation was buyoed by their wildly easy first two games.

Verdict: Staying away from the Chargers, Packers may be better than previously shown.

7) IND +11 @ KC, Over 56 (+264)

Lessons Learned:

  • Injuries hampered KC’s offense and impacted the game script.
  • The Colts focused on minimizing Mahomes’ opportunities and it severely limited scoring.
  • KC has let teams linger, so the line felt vulnerable.

Verdict: It’d be irresponsible to plan for this level of injuries. Colts had a good game plan, and it’ll likely be replicated in the future as well.

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