1) LAR SU @ SEA (+105)
- Jared Goff is unreliable at home and away. Anywhere near a competent defense will ruffle him.
- Rams Defense is overrated at the moment. Undisciplined against mobile QBs, making the opposing receivers much stronger plays.
- Cooper Kupp is the only reliable piece of offense for the Rams.
- Seattle O-line isn’t terrible anymore.
Verdict: Stop betting on the Rams. Stop betting on Thursday games.
2) NE @ WAS Over 42 (-110)
- The Pats have a kicker problem.
- Washington has a quarterback problem.
- Needed the Pats to excecute the offense (no missed kicks or red zone turnovers).
- Needed some success from Washington in garbage time.
Verdict: Only off by 2, lots of things had to break the wrong way. Would take this one again.
3) CHI +1 @ OAK, JAX +9.5 @ CAR, NE -9.5 @WAS (+170)
- The Raiders (especially Josh Jacobs) might be better than we thought.
- Chase Daniels showed why he’s a backup quarterback. Although, the Bears did have their chance.
- New England doesn’t have trap games.
- Gardner Minshew keeps games close when they shouldn’t be.
- Hard to say what will happen when two questionable offenses face off, maybe steer clear of these.
Verdict: Be cautious of meh offenses, but the structure here feels good to replicate.
4) AZ +3 @ CIN (-110)
- The Bungles are very bad, garbage time is nice for fantasy though.
- The Cardinals will score (had plenty of missed opportunities, including a FG.).
- Still a bit risky to bet on bad teams.
Verdict: Sorry Cincinnati.
5) TB +9.5 @ NO, Under 52 (-120)
- Jameis is still inconsistent, as is the Bucs secondary.
- The Saints skill players are good enough to score without an elite QB against an inconsistent defense.
- Home field advantage is meaningful for the Saints.
Verdict: Not too far off on this one. Saints offense was better than expected, and the defense nullified Mike Evans. Don’t like betting the spread and total.
6) LAC 0 vs. DEN, DAL +3 vs. GB (-120)
- The Chargers are cursed, and did not look interested in playing football today.
- Green Bay defense looks very good, demonstrating TNF’s wonkiness.
- Preseason is over for the Packers offense, missing Devante was well planned for.
- The Cowboys offense’s reputation was buyoed by their wildly easy first two games.
Verdict: Staying away from the Chargers, Packers may be better than previously shown.
7) IND +11 @ KC, Over 56 (+264)
- Injuries hampered KC’s offense and impacted the game script.
- The Colts focused on minimizing Mahomes’ opportunities and it severely limited scoring.
- KC has let teams linger, so the line felt vulnerable.
Verdict: It’d be irresponsible to plan for this level of injuries. Colts had a good game plan, and it’ll likely be replicated in the future as well.